March 2024 is just around the corner, and pension growth in 2024 is just around the corner. According to the process of previous years, we will have the exact news of the increase in March. How much can the pension rise? It mainly depends on the following four factors:
The average social wage is an important factor in calculating pensions, and it is also an important factor affecting the growth of pensions.
According to the basic pension calculation formula, the average salary is an important factor linked to the pension level. The basic pension and transitional pension are directly linked to the average salary (also known as the pension calculation base in some areas).
People's retirement is continuous, but the pension is calculated using the average social wage of the previous year. For example, if you retire in December 2023, you will need to use the average salary in 2022 or the 2023 pension calculation base released by the human resources and social security department. If you retire in January 2024, you will use the average salary of 2023, which will generally be announced in June and July. As for the pension calculation base for 2024, it may not be announced until 11 December.
For example, you can understand why the pension should be adjusted according to the average salary. For example, if a retiree has been working for 30 years, the average contribution index is 1, and the basic pension is 30% of the average salary of the previous year. There is also a transitional pension, even if it is 5% of the average salary.
Assuming that the average salary in 2022 is 7,000 yuan, the monthly pension (except for the personal account pension) is 2,450 yuan. If the average social wage in 2023 increases by 8%, the pension that retirees can receive under the same circumstances in January will be 2,646 yuan, an increase of 196 yuan.
If there is no pension adjustment in the middle, the pension level of retirees will be larger and larger. In order to balance the retirement benefits, the pension will be gradually adjusted.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the wage income of Chinese residents will increase by 71%, an increase of 2 over the previous year2%, the situation is still relatively optimistic.
Price growth is best understood, and we need to ensure the guaranteed standard of living of retirees' pensions. Therefore, the moderate growth of pensions will be guaranteed.
However, the price increase in 2023 is the lowest in recent years, at only 02%。Relatively speaking, 2023 is 20%。This may affect the downward adjustment of pension increases.
Let's take a look at the increase in pensions from 2005 to 2023:
From 2005 to 2007, the pension growth rate was 70% and 70% of the local average social wage growth rate that year, which was the initial pension growth system model. However, the pension between places will be increased year by year due to the advantage enrichment effect.
Since 2008, the adjustment level has been determined by ***. The level of adjustment in the country is relatively stable, from 2008 to 2015 it was 10%.
Since 2016, the state has uniformly implemented the pension adjustment of enterprises, government agencies and institutions. Because before 2016, government agencies and institutions still implemented the national retirement system, and the last time the state adjusted the retirement fee was in 2015. The overall level of pension adjustment in 2016 is 65%。
The adjusted level for 2017 is 55%。From 2018 to 2020, it maintained a level of 5% for three consecutive years.
The growth levels in 2021 and 2023 are % and 3., respectively8%。
Judging from the level of pension growth in the past, the increase in pension is likely not to be higher than that of the previous year. Therefore, it is estimated that the pension growth rate this year will be 35%~3.8% between.
Why the pension increase will not be higher than the previous year. After years of continuous growth, the average level of pensions has moved away from the situation of several hundred yuan in the past. At present, the pension has reached more than 3,000 yuan per capita, which is about the same as the salary level of many young people. If this situation grows at a high speed, it will put a lot of pressure on the pension insurance.
In addition, the degree of aging in China is also an important issue. In 2023, there will be only 9.02 million newborns in China, while the number of deaths will be 11.1 million, but the size of the population over 60 years old will increase by 16.93 million that year. Judging from these data, in the next ten or twenty years, the income and expenditure of pension insurance is indeed a big problem. Therefore, it is not appropriate to set the pension adjustment level too high.
The above are the four major factors affecting the growth of pensions, and I hope to communicate with you. Welcome to pay attention to the warm heart, thank you.