The first big good news of the Year of the Dragon is coming! Yesterday, the latest loan market ** interest rate LPR was released,The 5-year LPR ushered in an unprecedented declineWhat kind of impact will this have? Let's talk about it today.
Yesterday, the central bank authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announceThe 1-year LPR is 345%, unchanged; LPR for more than 5 years is 395%, up from 4 in the previous month2% fell by 25 basis points, ending a five-month streak of "standing still". (Source**: People's Bank of China, 2024.)2.20）
In fact, before that,There have been signals of interest rate cuts。Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office last month that the current price level is still far from the expected target, and domestic banks have moderately lowered deposit interest rates in the early stage, and the People's Bank of China has lowered the relending and rediscount interest rates and deposit reserve ratios for small rural support enterprises, which will help promote the LPR as a benchmark for credit pricing. (Source**: People's Bank of China, 2024.)1.24）
Based on this, coupled with the fact that the economic data for January is still weak, the market is widely expecting a reduction in the LPR this month, but this timeDownward revisionOr bigExceededeveryone'sExpected
You must know that since the LPR reform in 2019, counting this time, the 5-year LPR has been lowered a total of 8 times, but in the past, the reduction was generally 5 to 15 basis points, and this time it was reduced by 25 basis points at one time, which can be described as yesThe most drastic rate cut in history
What impact will it have?
First and foremostMortgages, but also indirectlyproperty market
Because the 5-year LPR is the anchor of long-term interest rate pricing, the current personal housing loan interest rate is basically formed by adding or subtracting points on this basis. That is, after the LPR rate was loweredNew home loan interest rateswill fall with it, whileExisting mortgage interest ratesAdjustments will also be made on the repricing date, in other words, the interest we have to pay each month will go down.
Take the Beijing area as an example, let's assume that the previous personal mortgage interest rate was 42%, and this time with a 25 basis point cut, the mortgage rate will become 395%。toCommercial loan of 1 million, repayment method of equal principal and interest for 30 yearsFor example, you can save about 145 yuan a monthYou can save more than 1,700 yuan a year, in 30 years, you can almost save more than 50,000 yuan in interest.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, saidThe biggest cycle of interest rate cuts in history has begun。The real estate market is currently in a phase of stabilization and recovery, but the recovery process needs to be consolidated. The interest rate cut will help further promote mortgage applications, and it will also have a positive effect on the activity of the subsequent home purchase market.
The benefits of the property market don't stop there. Before the Chinese New Year, in just 12 days from January 27 to February 7,The four major first-tier cities have all introduced new policies to relax housing purchase restrictions
Guangzhoutook the lead in firing the first shot of "relaxation", and on January 27, the purchase limit of housing of more than 120 square meters was clearly relaxed, and large houses can be bought openly!
Immediately after January 31,ShanghaiFor non-Shanghai residents who have paid social insurance or individual income tax for five years or more, they are allowed to purchase one house in the outer ring area except Chongming District, which means that single people from other places can also buy a house in Shanghai.
On February 6, it was regarded as the "most restricted" purchase in the countryBeijing CityFamilies who have settled or worked in Tongzhou District can meet the conditions of Beijing's purchase restrictions if they need to buy commercial housing in Tongzhou District, and are no longer subject to the "double restrictions".
On February 7thShenzhenThe requirements for the number of years of settlement have been abolished for the Shenzhen household registration, and the requirements for the number of years of social security have been reduced from 5 years to 3 years for non-Shenzhen household registration.
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen concentrated on adjusting the purchase restriction policy before the Spring Festival, coupled with the interest rate cut, which is conducive to boosting market expectationsLay the foundation for a good start to the property market in the first quarter of 2024 to form a "small spring" effect
In addition, the reduction of the LPR interest rate is also relatedThe development of enterprises and the economy
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, said that the 25 basis point drop in LPR for more than 5 years will further reduce the interest rate of medium and long-term loans for enterprisesStimulate the effective financing needs of enterprisesto create conditions for a good start to the economy in 2024.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, also pointed out that at present, the country is in a critical period of confidence recovery and economic recovery, coupled with the uncertainty of overseas demand prospects, commercial banks have made efforts to reduce loan interest rates reasonablyFurther concessions to the real economy, increase support for the real economy,Accelerate the recovery of the economy。(Source**: Beijing News, 2024.)2.20）
Finally, and what investors are most concerned about, the decline in the LPR interest rate will lead to monetary easingLiquidity improvements, judging from the previous downward adjustments to LPR, forEquity marketwithBond marketThere is still a certain boosting effect. After the announcement of yesterday's interest rate cut, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved five consecutive positives and stood firm at 2,900 points.
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