Overall trends
After three years of being plagued by the virus, I finally spent a Spring Festival in a down-to-earth manner, I don't know how everyone feels?
Ordinary people must feel that they haven't had enough, judging from the consumption data during the Chinese New Year, it does show signs of recovery.
According to data released by Fliggy on February 17, domestic travel orders for the 8-day Spring Festival holiday in the Year of the Dragon significantly exceeded the same period in 2019, with medium and long-term tours increasing by more than 3 times year-on-year, and outbound travel bookings increasing by nearly 10 times year-on-year. It has reached a peak in the past four years.
According to the data released by the National Film Administration on February 18, the national film box office during the 8-day Spring Festival holiday was 801.6 billion, 16.3 billion, an increase of 18 over the Spring Festival in 2347% vs. 2636%。Jia Ling, who is full of tendon meat, is also striding towards China's first female director with a box office of 10 billion yuan.
The M1 of January 24, which was announced during the Chinese New Year, also exploded, from 1 of December 233% jumped directly to 59%。
M1 refers to narrow money, which can be simply understood as the living money circulating in society, and it is difficult to say whether the short-term jump is a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate, or a simple dislocation during the Spring Festival. Because there have been many times in history when M1 skyrocketed in January and ** in February. Therefore, February's M1 data is critical, and if it continues to be strong, it will directly boost the sentiment of **.
The next important data is the US CPI for January, which is expected to be 29%, actually 31%, the strong economic performance has disappointed the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States again, and the US stock market has also seen a lot of volatility.
Judging from the performance of major assets last week, U.S. stocks and ** performed poorly due to monetary policy expectations. On the contrary, Japan and Germany, which have average economic data, have performed well, which shows that monetary policy expectations have a great impact on overseas markets.
Fortunately, the performance of Hong Kong stocks is unbeatable, do friends who hold shares for the holiday feel that the holiday is too long and are in a hurry to open?
The last big event during the Spring Festival was the release of the first generation model "SORA" by OpenAI. The demo is very advanced and realistic, but there are still some bugs, and the spawn time is only 60 seconds at most.
After the release of SORA, we have to face the fact that foreign AI technology is still improving, and the gap we need to catch up is even greater.
The impact on the secondary market of U.S. stocks is that the ** software giant Adobe fell nearly 10% in two days, and its market value evaporated by more than $20 billion. AI-related companies led by Nvidia continue to rise. However, the AI server provider Supermicro Computer, which has risen more than 5 times in the past year, has stepped out of a big black line that has risen 7% at the beginning of the market and dived rapidly, **20%.A wake-up call for avid AI investors.
As for whether A-share artificial intelligence will make a comeback after the holiday, let's take a look at a set of data first.
In 2023, the total disclosed financing of China's primary market AI industry will only be 47.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 19% compared to 2022.
Let's not talk about the amount, isn't it strange that 23 years is a big year for the AI industry, and investment has shrunk significantly?
There is also a set of data overseas, during the Spring Festival, OpenAI founder Altman wants to raise $7 trillion to invest in computing infrastructure, which sounds a bit outrageous. But Son's plan to raise $100 billion to invest in AI chip companies sounds a lot more reliable.
The huge gap in R&D investment determines that it is difficult to achieve the great power wrestling imagined by investors.
A-shares are more speculation expectations, most of the relevant ** last year were A-type moves, and some hardware companies can deliver on their performance.
So I advise some people to be calm tomorrow, or that sentence, it's not bad for a day or two.
1.1 Performance of the Global Scale Index
Judging from the pre-holiday performance, A-shares rose sharply across the board, and Hong Kong stocks stagnated, so it is not appropriate to use the performance of Hong Kong stocks to predict the post-holiday trend of A-shares.
The larger reference value is the FTSE A50 index continuously, rising by about 1 from February 9 to 188%, tomorrow A-share opening major indexes 1-2% higher probability is higher, but it is difficult to say whether the higher or lower will go later.
Judging from the historical performance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, the bottom of the trend has not passed, and the weekly increase exceeds 4%, and most of the cases will have a second bottom or even break the previous low, and there are very few cases that can directly form a **trend. Moreover, the average increase of the mainstream index last week was close to 10%, and there were many profit orders gathered in the short term.
1.2 Greed Fear Index
The Fear of Corruption Index closed at 28 before the holiday96,4600**, 500 companies in the case of the limit, how can it still fall a little?
From this indicator, it can be seen that although A-shares have passed the most panic stage, their vitality has been greatly damaged. Rescued from the ICU by a strong needle, there is still a long ** road ahead.
1.3 Equity and bond price-performance ratio
The pre-holiday risk premium closed at 403%, the picture is not clear, and finally a corner that rushes up and down.
The investment cost performance of the lowest point of this wave of the index is infinitely close to the beginning of 19, and from this indicator, even if it is stepped back twice, the possibility of breaking the previous low is very small.
ETF size changes and transactions
Last week, there were 30 ETFs worth 10 billion.
Judging from the changes in the scale and net value of tens of billions of products during the bailout period, only a few broad-based protective disc varieties have seen a significant increase in share. The rest of the directions that are not covered by the national team are basically the same as the changes in net value, and some products have also seen a small share redemptionIt can be seen that the participation in this wave of ** off-site is not high.
2.1 Size Index ETF:
The direction with the largest proportion of incremental funds in broad-based products is the CSI 1000, so it is much stronger than the CSI 500 on Friday.
If you regard these days as a wave of broad-based indexes, the CSI 1000 is the leading variety, and the performance after the holiday will have an impact on the subsequent funds entering other indexes.
On the last trading day before the holiday, two products of the CSI 2000 were closed to the daily limit, and although the scale of the CSI 2000 ETF in the south has more than doubled, the base is too small and has only increased by tens of millions. There were also signs of the national team in the intraday that day, and the transaction amount also exploded, but unfortunately the plate was too small, and it was not the main product, so it failed to attract more large funds to subscribe from the primary market.
And Huatai Berry CSI 2000 ETF has the blessing of the national team, and the scale has skyrocketed by billions, which is not a splash of wealth, this is a change of life.
It seems that the pattern of one dominant company in the CSI 2000 is difficult to change in the short term.
2.2 Major Sector and Thematic ETFs:
The performance of the industry is more intuitive, and the share of the pre-holiday market is basically reduced, so I think this wave of bailouts is more like a wave of broad-based product independence.
For example, the daily limit of the CSI 2000 ETF contains the expectation that the national team will continue to be the best, and the movement of the national team after the holiday is still one of the decisive factors in the market trend.
Any** needs a main line, and U.S. stocks are also driven by technology, not a simple index**. At present, the main line of A-share spring is not clear, so it is still necessary to prepare some bullets and not to run out easily.
2.3 Other ETFs:
The dividends and the pre-holiday share decreased slightly, and there was no collapse due to the large market size, and the bank trend was not weak, which showed that the group chips were still relatively stable.
In the month before the Spring Festival, except for the increase of the national team, the fund structure in the field has not changed much. Only when the overall capital flow occurs in the future, or attracts more incremental funds, is it easy to form a larger level.
**Ranking of company ETFs by size (excluding currencies and bonds).
Last week, the good news is that finally all managers are growing, and Huaxia and E Fund have risen by more than 50 billion in a single week!
Sadly, the gap between the top managers and the central managers has further widened, and Huaxia has increased by one Bosera ...... in a week
The head effect and scale effect of ETFs are very significant, and in the U.S. market, the first and second largest managers have a combined market share of more than 60%, so there is still a lot of room for improvement among the top managers of A-shares.
* Instead of widening the gap between the rich and the poor, the national team bailout has changed the industry pattern, and in the face of more fierce competition in 24 years, managers need to think carefully about how to go ahead.