With the release of the 2023 annual performance forecast, the revenue of photovoltaic companies in 2023 is gradually becoming clear.
It is worth noting that in the past two years, more and more companies have quickly entered the photovoltaic sector under the tide of P and N-type technology iteration. However, judging from the industry situation in 2023, the industrial chain will continue to fluctuate, which will bring great challenges to the development of enterprises.
How will cross-border companies perform in 2023?
Two Heavens
As shown in the figure below, the companies that have recently announced their results are all annual cross-border photovoltaic enterprises, and the past two years are the key period for the iteration of photovoltaic technology, especially in 2023, n-type technology has become the focus of the layout of most photovoltaic enterprises.
It can be seen that almost all enterprises have invested funds in the battery module sector, and have deployed N-type representative technologies such as HJT and TOPCon.
In terms of investment scale, enterprises have invested billions or even tens of billions of funds, and the largest known investment scale is Mingpai jewelry. In February 2023, it signed the "Investment Cooperation Framework Agreement" with the Management Committee of Shaoxing Keqiao Economic and Technological Development Zone, and plans to invest in the construction of the Riyue photovoltaic cell "super factory" project in the management area of the Keqiao Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee, with an investment scale of 10 billion yuan.
According to the follow-up reply of Mingpai Jewelry to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the 10 billion yuan fund is divided into 5 parts, including 3.9 billion yuan of project loans from the project company, 1 billion yuan of working capital loans from the project company, and 12 subsidies from the project company500 million yuan, 3.2 billion yuan of reinvestment of the project company's profits and 6500 million yuan.
The second is East China Heavy Machinery, with a total investment of 8 billion yuan to build a 20GW TOPCon high-efficiency photovoltaic cell project.
Judging from the performance reports of cross-border enterprises released so far, except for Mingpai Jewelry and Fengfan Shares, Mubang Hi-Tech has made profits, the rest of the companies have varying degrees of losses. It is worth mentioning that in 2023, the operating income of Mubang Hi-Tech's photovoltaic business will account for more than ninety percent.
It can be seen that the main reason for the loss is that the early investment in the photovoltaic business is large, especially the production line that is built has a production and ramp-up cycle, resulting in untimely investment.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the market situation, the photovoltaic industry chain fluctuates greatly, especially the price difference between polysilicon at the beginning of the year and the fourth quarter is too large, for many enterprises that do not have integrated production capacity, the expenditure on raw material procurement in the early stage is high, and in the fourth quarter, the industrial chain is sluggish, resulting in short-term profitability pressure on enterprises.
The photovoltaic industry continues to advance
Although in the short term, the performance of cross-border enterprises does not seem to be ideal. However, judging from the actual progress, many enterprises have opened up the situation.
In September 2023, the first phase of the TOPCon high-efficiency battery project of Bangjie New Energy Yangzhou Base was successfully put into operation.
In November 2023, the first N-type TOPCON solar cell produced by Sany Silicon Energy's 5GW Zhuzhou base successfully rolled off the production line.
Also in November, the first phase of the 16GW high-efficiency crystalline silicon cell project of Heguang Tongcheng and the launching ceremony of the second phase of the 16GW project were held in Yibin, Sichuan.
Note: The above table is based on public information statistics, for reference only, if there is any omission, please leave a message to correct.
In addition, Qingdian Photovoltaic, Huamin, Zhengye Technology, Saifutian, Zhuhai Hongjun New Energy, etc. have production lines.
And fast-moving companies have won big orders. For example, on January 30, 2024, Meditech announced that the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Medipower, signed a contract with Seraphim for 777 million N-type TOPCon monocrystalline cells, of which 354 million are expected in 2024 and 423 million in 2025. Based on the latest average price of N-type TOPCon cells** announced by Infolink Consulting at the time of contract signing, the total contract value is expected to be about 292.2 billion yuan.
With the continuous advancement of photovoltaic manufacturing business, more cross-border enterprises will participate in a new round of market competition. On the other hand, in terms of brands and channels, there is still a gap between cross-border enterprises and established photovoltaic enterprises.
In 2024, the PV industry will be more competitive. Industry insiders believe that the overcapacity situation will not be alleviated in 2024, and with the landing of the production capacity of various enterprises, the n-type capacity will also enter the excess stage. This year, there is a high probability that enterprises will need to reduce their profits in exchange for the market, and competition between enterprises will intensify.
In the face of the new market, some cross-border enterprises choose to stop losses in time, such as Sunflower, which decided not long ago to terminate the TOPCon battery product project and cancel the project company. The main reason is that in the context of changes in the current market environment and the influence of various factors, in order to reduce investment risks and management costs, optimize resource allocation.
Previously, Mubang Hi-Tech also issued an announcement reminding that the annual output of 5GW N-type high-efficiency cells and 5GW slice production base project (Phase I) has not yet clarified the specific capital arrangement due to the project investment amount being much higher than the company's book currency capital level. In addition, the implementation of the project is subject to changes in relevant national or local policies, environmental impact assessment, project approval, financing environment and other implementation conditions, and there is great uncertainty about whether the project can be carried out smoothly. It is understood that the project is expected to invest 3.5 billion yuan.