You can think that the house price is **, but please come up with a solid reason, don't force the analysis, fool others to buy a house, this kind of behavior is really harmful to others and yourself.
I also know that some people want house prices**, but please carefully analyze the data, and the sales volume in major cities in December appeared month-on-month**,There are even some cities where sales increased by more than 100% month-on-month in December
Originally, I didn't plan to analyze the December data, because this is just a year-end tail**, and there is not much reference.
But I estimate that house prices will be ** all year in 2023, and the sales volume will finally rise month-on-month, and some people will not be able to sit still.
Interpreting the ** of month-on-month sales as a signal of the property market in 2024 **, in my opinion, this is a typical fool.
In 2024, I can't give you an accurate answer to which cities will rise and which cities will fall.
But if you want to use the month-on-month sales of the property market in December to fool people, in order to prove that the house price will be ** in 2024, then you are in the middle of it.
Old fans who pay attention to me should know that in the past two years, my analysis of the property market is based on the data, and ordinary buyers don't know the catty in this month-on-month **, but I know, let's have a good chat today, the sales volume in December is the signal of the house price in 2024?
According to the data published by the China Index Research Institute,Sales in 28 major cities in December were 28 month-on-month36%，
Looking at this data alone, the sales volume is still very impressive, second only to the 55 in March7%, the second highest in the year, the month-on-month rise in March is due to the release of the three-year backlog of demand due to the epidemic, and the month-on-month rise in December.
Then look specifically at DecemberSales in first-tier cities were 17 month-on-month51%，
This has a lot to do with the recent relaxation of restrictions in first-tier cities.
Sales in second-tier cities were 49 month-on-month16%，
This is a typical year-end rush sales, giving a variety of discounts on house pricesSales in third- and fourth-tier cities in December were **966%This is relatively rare, because since the beginning of this year, the third and fourth-tier cities have been in the best both year-on-year and month-on-month data.
Now it has finally appeared, which has a lot to do with returning to the hometown at the end of the year.
Therefore, on the whole, the month-on-month data are all **, especially in second-tier cities, with an increase of nearly 50%.
Fang Bui became confident and began to fool.
But he didn't give you the year-on-year figures.
Verbose again here.
The month-on-month data is the December data compared to November.
The year-on-year data is the data for December 2023 compared to the data for December 2022, that is, the data for December of the previous year.
In terms of year-on-year data, all of them were ** in December, and the proportion of decline just corresponded to the ranking of ** month-on-month.
Second-tier cities had the highest month-on-month (QoQ**, but also the highest YoY**.
Overall, 28 major cities increased by 5 year-on-year13%，First-tier cities increased by **2 year-on-year2%，
Second-tier cities increased by 8 year-on-year99%，
Third-tier cities increased by 0 year-on-year06%，
That's where it gets interesting.
The signal that some housing blowers believe that the sales volume in December 2023 will rise sharply and the property market will stabilize is not as high as the sales volume in December of the same period in 2022.
Isn't that funny?
It is all at the end of the year**, and the high sales volume in 2022 has not led to the house price in 2023**.
So how do you judge the tail of 2023**Under the low sales volume, you can make the house price in 2024**.
In order to slap your face, I will give you the most typical example, the city with the largest month-on-month sales volume in December 2023 is the Wuhan property marketMonth-on-month **1063%, which can be called a big rise
And the sales of new homes in December also reached 11,496 units
It seems to be a good result, but 2023 will end perfectly.
But you pull out the data for December 2022.
Compared with the same period last year, it is simply crushing.
In December 2022, 17,264 new houses were sold in Wuhan, a month-on-month increase of **1976%
Both the number of units sold and the month-on-month growth will completely crush December 2023.
The end of December 2022 is so perfect, and the growth is so large, it has not led to the housing prices of the Wuhan property market in 2023**, and even many areas are still plummeting.
Then you use December 2023, a relatively low growth volume, to judge the house price in 2024**, you are not a joke, who is a joke.
Even if you take a step back, the property market in 2024 is destined to stabilize**, and the reason is definitely not the one you gave.
We have emphasized many times that the stabilization of this round of property market cannot completely depend on the property market policy.
Equally important is the improvement of the economic and employment environment.
To put it bluntly, my job is unstable, and I'm even spending my past savings.
Where do I get the confidence and courage to buy a house?
Of course, you can also say that buying a house now is a rich man's game, and it is not at all something that people who have a precarious job can consider.
But the problem is that real estate is a transmission chain, and many people who can afford to buy real estate in first-tier cities are not wealth created out of thin air.
The people who are replaced in the first-tier cities need to sell the old and dilapidated ones in their hands, and the people who can only buy the products they just need in the first-tier cities need to sell a few houses in the second-tier cities.
In a word, someone has to take over, otherwise no matter how much the policy is given, the things in his hands can't be disposed of, and no matter how greedy he is, he can't eat new things.