Reporter of China Industry NewsYu Na
2023 is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the year of economic recovery after the three-year transformation of the new crown epidemic prevention and control. In the face of complex and severe internal and external situations, the machinery industry has made solid progress in high-quality development, and the main economic indicators have achieved stable growth throughout the year, which has played an important role in stimulating the steady development of the manufacturing industry and even the national industry.
Looking forward to 2024, opportunities and challenges coexist in the machinery industry, but the favorable conditions are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the overall economic operation is still expected to maintain a steady and progressive overall trend throughout the year. At the 2023 Machinery Industry Economic Operation Information Conference held on February 5, Ye Dingda, Chief Economist of China Machinery Industry Federation.
In 2023, although the economic operation of the machinery industry will experience fluctuations, the overall operation situation is improving. Affected by the base of comparison, the growth rate of the main indicators in the first quarter was low, the growth rate in the second quarter was higher, and the growth rate slowed down in the third quarter.
The scale of the industry has reached a new level. As of the end of 2023, the number of enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry is 1210,000, an increase of 10,000 over the previous year, accounting for 25% of the country's industry, an increase of 03 percentage points; The total assets reached 36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99%, accounting for 21 percent of the country's industry5%, an increase of 07 percentage points.
The growth rate of added value is higher than that of the national industry. In 2023, the added value of the machinery industry will increase by 8% year-on-year7%, higher than the national industrial and manufacturing growth rate of 41 and 37 percentage points. The added value of the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry all increased, of which electrical machinery and automobiles played a prominent leading role, and the growth rate of added value reached 129% and 13%; The growth rate of the added value of general equipment, special equipment and instrumentation was low, respectively6% and 33%。
The production and sales situation of products is differentiated. In 2023, the production and sales situation of the main products of the machinery industry will continue the differentiation trend of the previous year, and the number of products with increased and decreased output will account for about half. Among the 120 main products monitored, the output of 61 products increased year-on-year, accounting for 508%；The output of 59 products decreased year-on-year, accounting for 492%。
The main characteristics of the production and sales of key products are: first, the production and sales of automobiles have reached a record high, with the annual production and sales of automobiles exceeding 30 million, and passenger cars and commercial vehicles have achieved rapid growth; The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached about 9.5 million units, accounting for 31 percent of total vehicle sales6%, the effect of industrial restructuring is remarkable. Second, electrical appliances continued to grow, and the output of generator sets and solar cells increased by 28 respectively5% and 54%. Third, the production of the machine tool industry picked up, and the output of metal cutting machine tools increased by 6 percent year-on-year4%。Fourth, construction machinery is still sluggish, excavators, loader sales fell by 254% and 158%。Fifth, agricultural machinery products continued to be sluggish, and the output of large and medium-sized tractors and special equipment for feed production declined respectively1% and 212%。
The growth of efficiency indicators is stable. In 2023, the machinery industry will achieve an operating income of 298 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68%；The total profit was nearly 18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%。The growth rate of operating income and total profit is 5 percent higher than that of the national industry7 and 64 percentage points, accounting for 22 percent of the country's industry3% and 228%, an increase of 1 from the previous year2 and 14 percentage points.
The growth rate of investment is generally high. In 2023, the overall investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry will continue to grow rapidly, which will play an important supporting role in stimulating investment in industry and manufacturing. Among the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry, the investment in automobiles and electrical machinery has grown rapidly, and the growth rates are2%, especially the growth rate of electrical machinery has been higher than 32% for two consecutive years; The growth rate of investment in general equipment, special equipment and instrumentation was4% and 144%。The growth rate of investment in the five major industries is higher than that of the whole society in fixed assets (3%), except for general equipment, which is higher than that of the national industry (9.).0%) and manufacturing (6.).5%).
Foreign trade has risen steadily and reached a new high. In 2023, the world political and economic situation will be complex and severe, the global performance will be sluggish, and the weak external demand will bring pressure on export growth, but China's machinery industry will withstand multiple pressures and rise steadily and reach a new high, demonstrating strong resilience and international competitiveness. The total foreign trade volume, export volume and surplus scale of the machinery industry have hit a record high.
The operation of the industry is in the boom range. The machinery industry prosperity index covers multiple dimensions such as production, investment, foreign trade, and economic benefits, and comprehensively reflects the operation of the machinery industry. Affected by the base of the previous year, the machinery industry prosperity index in 2023 will generally show a trend of low and high and then stable, with a low opening and high in the first half of the year, rising to the highest point of the year in May, and then falling and stabilizing month by month, and stabilizing to 105 in December5. The prosperity index of the machinery industry in each month of the year is located in the boom range.
In 2023, the external market pressure of the machinery industry will be superimposed with its own structural contradictions, and the economic operation of the industry will still face difficulties and problems such as insufficient demand, difficult and declining accounts, fluctuations in the foreign trade market, and unbalanced internal development.
Weak market demand and insufficient orders. In 2023, China's economic recovery will show the characteristics of wave-like development and zigzag progress, domestic demand recovery is less than expected, and the machinery product market is not prosperous. The manufacturing PMI index fell below the threshold in April and briefly recovered to 50 in September2. In the fourth quarter, it was below the critical value again, 49 in December, of which the new orders index was only 487。According to the special survey of key enterprises in the machinery industry, the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient orders in 2023 will always be higher than 50%, and the proportion will rise to 65% at the end of the fourth quarter, of which the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises with insufficient orders is as high as 72%.
The problem of difficult accounts continues. In recent years, the accounts receivable of the machinery industry has continued to grow rapidly, and the large scale and long period of accounts receivable have become prominent problems affecting the capital turnover and production and operation of enterprises. At the end of 2023, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry will be 8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111%, the growth rate is higher than the national industry 35 percentage points, accounting for 33 percent of the country's industrial accounts receivable7%。The average period of accounts receivable in the machinery industry is 899 days, 5 more than the same period in 20224 days, higher than the national industry 293 days. The special survey shows that 53% of the accounts receivable of enterprises increased year-on-year, and 41% of the accounts receivable of enterprises increased year-on-year, of which the overdue amount of private enterprises accounted for 3 percentage points higher than that of the whole industry.
Affected by this, the capital turnover rate of the machinery industry has declined, the asset-liability ratio has risen, and the operating efficiency of the industry has been damaged. In 2023, the turnover rate of current assets in the machinery industry will be only 126 times, a year-on-year decrease of 003 times, 0 lower than the national industry29 times; The debt-to-asset ratio was 586%, an increase of 02 percentage points, 1 percentage point higher than the national industry5 percentage points.
* Downside squeezes profit margins. The rapid rise in production capacity and the lack of effective demand, the fierce competition in the machinery product market, coupled with the weak bargaining power and other factors, the factory of mechanical products continued to decline and the decline deepened. February** year-on-year decrease of 02%, and the decline has deepened to 2 by December5%。The machinery industry is mainly involved in the five major categories of national economic industries, and the factory ** in December all fell year-on-year. In the field of hot investment in the early stage and leading the new growth of the industry, the rapid growth of production capacity and the intensification of competition in the industry have triggered a downward trend in products. The main products of the photovoltaic and energy storage battery industries have experienced a significant decline of 9 in the battery manufacturing industry in December7%。* The downward trend squeezes profit margins, and the phenomenon of increasing income without increasing profits is widespread. In 2023, the growth rate of total profits of the machinery industry will be lower than the growth rate of operating income by 27 percentage points, and the operating income margin decreased by 02 percentage points, down to 59%。
Uncertainties in the foreign trade market have increased. Affected by multiple factors such as the formation of the global chain repair, the slowdown in the recovery of developed economies, and the intensification of protectionism and geopolitical conflicts, the downward pressure on the external demand market of the machinery industry continues. First, the rapid growth of exports in the early stage of the product has a slowdown trend, and the export value of wind turbines, photovoltaic products, and excavators will decline year-on-year in 20231% and 09%。Second, the economic growth of some developed economies is sluggish, demand is slowing down, and China's machinery industry exports to it are declining. Exports to North America in 2023 will decrease by 73%, of which exports to the United States fell 79%；Exports to the EU grew by only 15%, of which exports to Germany fell by 12%；Exports to Japan fell by 1 year-on-year4%。Third, affected by industrial transfer, the export volume of the machinery industry to ASEAN fell by 4 year-on-year6%。Fourth, most of the overseas orders in hand are short. According to a special survey at the beginning of this year, 81% of enterprises' overseas orders only meet one quarter's production, of which the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises is even higher, at 88%. Fifth, in recent years, export highlight products have become a new target of international disputes. The European Union launched a countervailing investigation on China's new energy vehicles, launched an anti-dumping investigation on mobile lifting platforms, the United Kingdom launched an anti-dumping and countervailing investigation on China's excavators, India began to impose a five-year anti-dumping duty on China's wheel loaders, and the European Parliament diversified key raw materials such as lithium and silicon to reduce dependence on a single country. Sixth, the impact of intensified international politics and geopolitical conflicts on the international community. Uncertain and unpredictable factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the obstruction of the Red Sea shipping lanes have interfered with international activities.
The development is uneven, and the downward pressure on some industries is greater. The development of the machinery industry is uneven, the operation is obviously differentiated, and some industries are still facing great downward pressure. First, the production and marketing situation is differentiated, and the increase or decrease in product output accounts for about half. Second, the export situation is differentiated, 14 sub-industries foreign trade exports increased by 10 and fell by 4, automobiles, robots, agricultural machinery, heavy mining machinery, construction machinery and other main engines, the export of complete machine products growth trend is better, while the export situation of traditional advantageous products such as basic parts, parts, general machinery, and office equipment is weak. The third is the differentiation of financial benefits. Among the 14 sub-industries, operating income increased by 8 and decreased by 6. Among them, the two industries of electrical appliances and automobiles have a large volume and a high growth rate, which is the core driving force to support the revenue growth of the machinery industry, in addition to the high growth rate of the robot and internal combustion engine industries; The agricultural machinery and construction machinery industries have not yet gotten rid of the downward channel of sluggish production and sales, and the operating income has fallen by more than 10%, which is 111% and 131%。The total profit increased by 11 and decreased by 3. Among them, the profit growth rate of the office equipment and petrochemical general machinery industry exceeded 15%, and the growth rate of the construction machinery and internal combustion engine industry exceeded 25% due to the low base of the previous year; The agricultural machinery industry fell by 89%, the machine tool industry fell by nearly 30% due to the downward impact of abrasives.
Looking forward to 2024, the internal and external environment facing the operation of the machinery industry is still complex and severe. From an international point of view, the world is intertwined with chaos, the evolution of changes in a century is accelerating, international political disputes and military conflicts have broken out at many points, and the world economy and international growth momentum are insufficient. In addition, the demand for chain diversification in developed economies has increased, protectionism has prevailed, and the game between major countries in key areas has intensified. The foreign trade market of the machinery industry is facing many uncertainties and greater downward pressure. From a domestic point of view, the macroeconomic environment still has difficulties such as insufficient effective demand, weak social expectations, weak investment willingness, and consumption less than expected. However, the basic trend of China's overall economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, and the favorable factors supporting the high-quality development of the machinery industry have continued to gather and increase.
Overall, opportunities and challenges coexist in the development of the machinery industry in 2024, but the opportunities outweigh the challenges, and the favorable conditions are stronger than the unfavorable factors. Comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the economic operation of the machinery industry throughout the year will continue to be stable and good, and the growth rate of the main economic indicators is expected to be more than 5%, and the external market will remain basically stable. Ye Dingda said.
Review: Yu Zaozao.
Editor-in-charge: Huo Yue.
Editor: Hu Na.