In China's auto market, competitive pressure continues to rise.
The escalating battle is the best proof, at present, not only fuel vehicles in the "volume" terminal, a number of new energy models in order to seize market share, have also been "killed" red eyes, the market has become a general trend, lidar, 800V platform and other high-end configurations, but also began to appear more and more in the mass market of products. Spending less money to buy better products, the scene that everyone expected before, is becoming more and more reality.
In addition to "fighting" in the mainstream market, the phenomenon of "staggered peak" competition is becoming more and more common. In the mainstream market that has become a "red ocean", it is impossible to quickly break the circle, so change your thinking, be a pioneer of the new blue ocean of the market, and tap new business opportunities in a more segmented market. At the same time, Chinese companies, which are already in a leading position in the field of electrification and intelligence, have also begun to look for new opportunities through more cooperation and capability output.
Find new market segments
After entering the new millennium, China's auto market has experienced three major stages of development.
The first 10 years were undoubtedly a stage of rapid development, from a little over 1 million units in 2001 to nearly 14 million units in 2010, with an average annual compound growth rate of 302%。
From 2011 to 2017, it is considered the technology accumulation and innovation stage of domestic car companies, and the market as a whole has turned into a slow growth stage, but under the stimulus of a series of stimulus policies (such as purchase tax incentives, etc.) and the tide of replacement and upgrading of automobile products, China's auto market has achieved nearly 10% (93%).
After 2018, it can be clearly felt that the overall market has been saturated in stages, but new opportunities have also emerged. With the advent of the wave of electric vehicle consumption, China's auto market has begun to show obvious structural adjustments, the rapid rise of independent car companies, the market share of new energy continues to soar, and the export business has been comprehensively upgraded, and China is now the world's largest auto exporter.
Looking back at the domestic auto market in the past 20 years, the three major stages of development have also seen significant differences in consumer preferences. In the 10 years of rapid market growth, car products are undoubtedly the most important contributor.
After entering the second stage, the domestic auto market has gradually matured from the initial germination, everyone's consumption is upgrading, and the demand has become more diverse. At this stage, the luxury car market ushered in a big explosion, and the domestic "SUV fever" is also intensifying. At that time, not only all mainstream brands were accelerating the launch of SUV products, but some ultra-luxury supercar brands also began to lay out the SUV market, and the popularity of SUV models at that time can be seen.
According to the 2017 sales volume released by the China Passenger Car Association, the sales volume of the domestic SUV market exceeded 10 million units for the first time that year, which is almost the same as that of sedan products in terms of market share.
In the third stage, although the overall growth rate of the auto market has further slowed down, the trend of more segmented demand is becoming more and more obvious. Sports sedans, high-end MPVs, off-road vehicles, pickup trucks and other sub-categories that were not popular have all had their own highlight moments in recent years.
In the sports sedan market, in the past two or three years, there have been many new products, especially in the camp of independent car companies, there have been many smash hit "star players", such as Trumpchi Shadow Leopard, MG 5 Scorpio, Changan UNI-V, Binrui Cool, etc., have attracted widespread attention, and many models have even shouted the slogan of leading the sports sedan market from the niche to the public.
Under the tide of electrification, the domestic high-end electric MPV market has also ushered in a new breakthrough, as more and more new energy brands "roll" to this segment, a new blue ocean market is taking shape. Many industry insiders have said that 2024 will be an opportunity period for the domestic high-end MPV market. New models such as Ideal MEGA and Xpeng X9, coupled with Denza D9, ZEEKR 009, VOYAH Dreamer, Trumpchi E9, etc., which already have a certain mass base, will definitely have nothing to see in 2024 on the new battlefield of the domestic high-end MPV market.
In the SUV market, although the overall popularity has cooled down compared with previous years, the efforts of car companies to launch SUV products have not been greatly affected, and the SUV market has a trend of further refinement. Among them, the off-road vehicle market is a hot area. Recent signs show that the domestic off-road vehicle market is undergoing a fundamental reversal, looking up to U8, Formula Leopard Leopard 5, tank series and other independent models, is more and more standing on the domestic off-road vehicle "new Jianghu" C position. In addition, models represented by the Haval dog have also opened up a new situation, and the popularity of the popular light off-road vehicle market is also rising, and there is also a pickup market. Although the domestic pickup truck market can not be compared with the mature foreign pickup truck market, there is still a big gap from the real outbreak, but in recent years, driven by the Great Wall Cannon series models and Geely radar and other electric pickup truck brands, coupled with the gradual liberalization of policy restrictions, the domestic pickup truck market is becoming more and more lively, not only more and more passenger pickup truck models on the market, the scale of the pickup truck market is also growing.
We all know that the current market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and the intensity of "involution" is still rising geometrically, opening up a "new front", which is certainly not small for all car companies. To sum up, there are a lot of opportunities to be developed, but the question is, are there any fields that can really see results in a short period of time?
Where are the new opportunities?
Let's take a look at the economic environment in 2024, if nothing else, the global economy will probably remain in the overall trend of slowing growth in 2024.
First of all, from the trend point of view, there is a lot to be done upward. The high-end market, more precisely, the high-end new energy market, has great opportunities.
After the rise of independent brands, they are redefining new luxury. In the era of fuel vehicles, what is the definition of luxury cars? It is nothing more than brand attributes, materials and power performance, etc., but at this stage, the new luxury led by independent new energy products, on the basis of retaining the original attributes, the core has also been upgraded, and the weight of innovative technology and user experience has been improved.
In the process, the market structure is also being rapidly restructured.
According to the sales data compiled by the Gasgoo Automobile Research Institute, in the domestic automobile market in 2016, the market share of traditional luxury cars was around 6%, and at this time, the domestic new energy market was actually just starting, and the market share of new energy luxury cars was zero, because there was no high-end luxury new energy vehicles in the real sense at that time. By 2023, the market share of NEV luxury and traditional luxury will basically be comparable, with the former accounting for 74%, the latter after a high share of more than 10% in previous years, under the impact of electric vehicles, the share has fallen back to 95%。
The high-end new energy market is in the ascendant, and it is an area that can be operated attentively, but how to lay it out? The sedan and SUV market is already a "bright card game", and at the same time, it has to fight intelligence, configuration, etc., which has been seriously "involuted", relatively speaking, the high-end new energy MPV market, the opportunity is greater.
According to the analysis of Gasgoo Automobile Research Institute, with the growth of the proportion of domestic trade-in purchases, medium and large MPVs that are more suitable for short-distance family multi-person travel scenarios still have a certain market development space and growth potential. Specifically, the commercial MPV market is relatively stable, and the future potential mainly depends on the household market. Among them, it can be clearly seen that independent brands are enthusiastic about the pure electric MPV market, mainly because there are not many competing products in this segment, the penetration rate of pure electric products is low, and there is still a lot of stock market space for penetration in the future. At the same time, it can also rely on the reputation and innovative product strength accumulated in intelligent electrification to better activate the travel needs of multi-population families.
In addition, the prospect of the off-road vehicle market can also be expected.
In the domestic off-road vehicle market before 2020, foreign-funded models were the absolute main force, but because of the widespread problems of high fuel consumption and low domestic mainstream consumer income at that time, the purchase group was relatively limited. The situation has undergone a relatively big change in the second half of 2020, and after the tank 300 was launched, it quickly became popular with its relatively people-friendly ** and good comprehensive capabilities, activating the off-road market. After that, new new energy brands such as Formula Leopard, Mengshi, and Yangwang have also joined the off-road camp and launched more intelligent and electrified new products.
Moreover, after entering 2024, the new brand represented by Xiaomi may bring surprises. Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute believes that a strong compound team background, abundant financial support, production capacity layout and intelligent independent R&D layout development path ensure that new players such as Xiaomi can establish a relatively differentiated competitive advantage. Whether there can be a big breakthrough in the future depends on the basic capacity building of car manufacturing and the construction of core competitive elements.
There are also mainstream joint venture car companies, although they have fallen behind on a large scale in the new energy era, but they are not all without opportunities.
Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute pointed out that in the post-joint venture era, the in-depth layout and cooperation of localization will become the new normal for the development of the mainstream joint venture car industry. Volkswagen's cooperation with Xpeng, Stellantis Group's investment in Leap, SAIC Audi's construction of electric vehicles based on Zhiji's electrification platform, and the establishment of a joint venture between BMW and Mercedes-Benz in China, etc., all indicate that the declaration of "in China, for China" shouted by many joint ventures will no longer stay on the slogan.
At the same time, local car companies, high-quality first-class merchants and technology companies have also begun to carry out relevant ecological chain cooperation in the global market, which is also a key prerequisite for local enterprises to quickly export technology and production capacity resources.
Now, if the Chinese auto market in 2024 is based on the current comprehensive macroeconomy, industrial policy and competitive situation, we can basically conclude that the domestic passenger car market will still grow slowly. According to the ** made by the Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, China's domestic passenger car market will remain 1 in 2024The growth rate is about 8%.
However, it should be pointed out that although the overall growth rate of the auto market will not be too high, there will certainly be no lack of bright spots in the subdivision. For example, the new energy vehicle market represented by extended range and plug-in hybrid will definitely continue its rapid growth trend in 2024; There is a high probability that there will be a lot of surprises in the export market. In addition, there are many points worth paying attention to in the high-end MPV market and off-road vehicle market; The game-breaking battle for new entrants, as well as whether mainstream joint venture brands still have market momentum, are also full of expectations.
In a word, in the Chinese auto market in 2024, the "reshuffle" will continue, and the excitement will continue.