In the second half of 2023, news such as the lifting of purchase restrictions was frequently reported in many places, and of course, these news were quickly "clarified" by the local government. In 2024, the news of the liberalization of purchase restrictions has once again rushed to the hot search, and this time the change in the attitude of relevant departments also reflects the "new normal" of the property market in 2024.
From "clarification" to "liberalization" The property market has entered a new stage
On December 20, 2023, in response to the news of the liberalization of purchase restrictions in Haikou, Hainan Province, "Haikou Release"** issued a response saying that the global purchase restrictions have not been lifted, and the policy adjustment is to support the housing needs of enterprise talents.
In fact, Haikou's situation is not unique, and similar clarifications have been made in Beijing, Shenzhen and other places in recent months.
At that time, the author expressed his opinion that such rumors were constantly being released, indicating that the industry has an increasingly urgent need for such policies.
Sure enough, at the beginning of 2024, it has ushered in two hot topics: "Suzhou has completely canceled housing purchase restrictions" and "Shanghai purchase restrictions", among which the topic of Shanghai purchase restrictions has attracted more than 40 million readers, ranking first on the hot search list of a social platform.
Although judging from the timeline, one will happen in 2023 and the other will take place in 2024, in fact, the transition from clarification to liberalization has only gone through a few months.
At the beginning of 2024, the property market ushered in this blockbuster news, which made many practitioners believe that the "toolbox" of the policy has taken out the last "magic weapon", and it seems that the market situation this year is far more severe than we imagined. And can this "killer feature" save the property market?
Can the liberalization of purchase restrictions "save" the property market?
Some people think that the real estate market will release a "big killer" at the beginning of the year, which confirms the determination of the relevant departments to "save the market", of course, some people think that it is too late to let go at this time.
So, what role has the introduction of this policy played for the market? Some ** reports say that "some intermediaries have doubled the number of appointments", and some netizens "don't buy it", thinking that whether to restrict purchases is not the crux of the matter, and "no money" is the key.
Of course, there are also netizens who believe that judging from the current situation, the introduction of policies is to stimulate "rich people" to buy houses, rather than "tightening their belts" to buy houses. And this change also means that the real "rudder moment" of the market is coming.
Previously, there were industry comments that the market is transforming from "whether it is there" to "whether it is good or not", in fact, this is a "high emotional intelligence" statement, more bluntly, that is, rigid demand is further shrinking, and even withdrawing from the new housing market; In the future, the "main battlefield" of the new housing market will revolve around improvements, and even luxury homes.
This is not only reflected in the transaction structure of first-tier cities, but also in second-tier cities such as Shenyang. Obviously, the purchase restriction is not the key to "saving the market", the key is that the market is moving towards a "new normal".
The differentiation of "rigid and hao" is obvious, and the future market may enter the "new normal".
Judging from the transactions of Shenyang's new and second-hand housing markets in 2023, the transactions in Shenyang's new housing market have further shrunk, but there are still 11 properties for sale with an average price of more than 20,000 square meters, of which the average price of Yasong Pavilion remains above 30,000 square meters. What's more noteworthy is that among them, nearly half of the real estate ranks among the top 30 in sales.
In other words, although the overall transaction volume of Shenyang's new home market is declining, the sales of "luxury homes" are relatively stable.
In terms of the second-hand housing market, according to the public data of some large intermediaries, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenyang is almost maintained at the level of dozens of units per day, while the listing price and transaction price continue to decline. This point is consistent with the feedback from some intermediary staff, "If you want to make a quick move, you still have to be willing to reduce the price."
It is not difficult to see that the Shenyang market is gradually moving towards differentiation, pure rigid demand is turning to the second-hand housing market in "batches", and in terms of the new housing market, the high-quality luxury housing market is a batch of "stabilization" in advance.
In this way, perhaps the market trend in 2024 has basically "set the tone", that is, in the new housing market, the projects that are purely rigid demand may be further reduced, and real estate companies will focus on the luxury housing market one after another. While market turnover will shrink further, it is likely to stabilize.
In terms of second-hand housing, the "* war" may further intensify. With the intensification of the previous tension in the capital chain of investors, after 2023, there may be a new wave of "sell-off" in the second-hand housing market, which will continue to affect the stability of the second-hand housing market.
On the whole, the two different needs of improvement and rigid demand may be further differentiated into the new housing and second-hand housing markets, and the future market is no longer the "incremental era", but the market that has entered the "stock era" will be more competitive, but it is also easier to emerge the real "high-quality luxury houses".
So, are you looking forward to the property market in 2024?
February** Dynamic Incentive Program