Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erden recently revealed that it is expected that the launch of the Sino-Russian cross-border gas pipeline "Power of Siberia 2" through Mongolia may be delayed.
According to the statements of the Russian side and the Mongolian side, the construction of the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline was originally planned to begin this year, but so far, China and Russia have not reached a formal agreement, and there is no news about the start of construction. In an interview with the Financial Times, Oyun Erden said that China and Russia have not yet reached a consensus on the key details of this mega project, and the frequent fluctuations in global natural gas ** have increased the difficulty of negotiations between the two sides.
Although there has been no official comment on this by Chinese and Russian officials, according to various current indications, this is very likely.
It is worth noting that although the project may be postponed, both China and Russia have a very firm attitude towards this project, and both hope to reach an agreement as soon as possible to promote the implementation of the project as soon as possible, because this project is related to important matters in Sino-Russian relations. At the meeting between the heads of state of China and Russia in October last year, the Chinese side said: "We look forward to the early and substantial progress of the China-Mongolia-Russia natural gas pipeline project." ”
Regarding the Russian side, their eagerness is clearly greater than that of the Chinese side. Almost all information about the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline was published on the initiative of the Russian and Mongolian sides.
At the beginning of last year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is in charge of energy affairs, said that he was striving to reach an agreement with China by the end of 2023 and planned to start building the pipeline in 2024. Since then, however, he has not mentioned the matter again, only briefly mentioning that the start of construction of the pipeline will be determined after the contract with the Chinese side is signed.
Not long ago, Gazprom said that its goal is to start delivering gas through the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline by 2030, but it is still difficult for the two sides to reach a consensus on core issues such as natural gas.
A lot of information points to the ** problem, and it is true that the issue of gas pricing is a thorny issue in the agreement. Russia** Putin once publicly said at the Eastern Economic Forum in September 2022: "In the negotiation of the agreement, China is a difficult partner to deal with, if you don't believe it, you can ask the president of Gazprom ......."”
We need to be clear. The pipeline gas deal to be signed between China and Russia is likely to follow a long-term "take it or pay" agreement. The so-called "take-or-pay" means that if the buyer does not purchase the gas as agreed due to personal reasons, they still have to pay a certain amount of money to the seller as agreed. Similarly, if the seller is unable to provide sufficient gas, the buyer needs to be compensated accordingly.
In short, this take-or-pay agreement is more beneficial to the seller, the gas supplier. However, for buyers, such long-term agreements ensure a steady stream of natural gas and access to cheaper gas than the market.
So, how much is this "cheaper **" and how much discount the buyer can enjoy, should be the key point of negotiations between China and Russia. As the Prime Minister of Mongolia said, the current negotiations have become more complicated by the huge fluctuations in natural gas ** in recent years.
In May 2014, China and Russia signed a 30-year long-term gas transmission agreement on the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, which is currently the only cross-border gas pipeline between the two countries, with a maximum annual gas transmission capacity of 38 billion cubic meters. According to the Russian side, the agreement follows the principle of "take or pay", and the total contract value is as high as 400 billion US dollars. Less than four months after the agreement was signed, the pipeline officially started construction and was ventilated in 2019.
Compared"Power of Siberia 1"，"Power of Siberia 2"is larger, with a capacity of up to 50 billion cubic meters, the same volume as the Nord Stream pipelines. In addition, the pipeline is expected to pass through Mongolia, so the interests of three countries will be involved.
Under such circumstances, it is quite normal for China to take a more cautious approach to negotiations. Such a large-scale order, which is related to natural gas in the next few decades, must be treated with caution to ensure that everything goes smoothly.
What's more, given the current global situation, China is currently in a more advantageous position, and China is not in a hurry relative to Russia, so it is also quite reasonable to remain tough on the ** issue. China's energy imports have always been diversified: without Russia, we have gas resources from Qatar, Australia and Turkmenistan; And without China, it may be difficult for Russia to find another buyer of gas that is in such high demand.
In general, about"Power of Siberia 2"There is no need for us to be too nervous, and it should not be us who is in a hurry.
It is worth mentioning that since Saudi Arabia suspended oil production cuts and began to reduce **, this has led India to put new demands on Russia in terms of oil imports, and they want Russia to provide more preferences. Indian Oil Minister Pri bluntly said earlier this month: "If Russia can't offer India better discounts, then why does India continue to buy Russian oil?" ”
It is clear that on the issue of energy cooperation, no matter how well China and Russia talk, we at least give Moscow enough respect, unlike India, which is almost a put"Want to make money"Three words are written on the face. Correspondingly, for:"Power of Siberia 2"The implementation of the project, if Putin ** is worried that things will drag on for too long, then they should be clear about what to do next.