The report interpreted this time is "On the Eve of the Dawn of Industrialization: What is the Progress of Ontology Factories at Home and Abroad?" The report has a total of 21 pages, for more important content and core views, please refer to the original report, and the full version can be obtained at the end of the article.
This report focuses on the current state of the U.S. job market, its challenges, and how it relates to the Fed's policy decisions. We will take an in-depth look at the post-pandemic distortions in the job market,** the reasons behind them,** and assess the progress of the current corrections. In addition, this report will also start from long-term historical experience and multi-dimensional observation indicators, **how to use the dynamics of the labor market to ** the Fed's interest rate cut decision.
First, distortions in the job market
In the current environment, the U.S. job market is showing a different dynamic. The traditional Phillips curve relationship – the trade-off between inflation and employment – seems to have failed. Compared to other economic indicators, indicators of the job market are more robust, showing an "immunity" effect to monetary tightening.
2. Causes of distortion**
This distortion is mainly due to the rigid gap and excess demand on the supply side. In the post-pandemic recovery phase, the mismatch between supply and demand has led to a rise in wages. Under the Fed's tightening policy, although demand has retreated, the balance between supply and demand has not yet been fully restored.
3. Analysis of correction progress
At present, the supply side has observed some signs of recovery, but the rigid gap still exists. The increase in migration and the fading of fiscal effects are expected to have a positive effect on the supply side. However, the overall cooling rate on the demand side is slow, and the demand for labor is still strong. The long-term increase in demand for remote work and aged care practitioners, as well as the downturn in cyclical demand, pose challenges for the further correction of the job market.
Fourth, the Fed's interest rate cut decision and the employment market observation
When evaluating the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, the long-term historical experience provides us with a valuable reference. Observing the rebound of the unemployment rate, the stepwise downward trend and significant "drawdown" of new jobs, as well as the cooling transmission sequence of different industries, can provide important clues for the direction of the Fed's policy. In addition, multi-dimensional observation of indicators is crucial. The softening of both labour demand and new jobs has been particularly significant, so it is important to keep an eye on the decline in new jobs and the broader downward trend in demand indicators.
Conclusion
The U.S. job market is in a complex and ever-changing phase. In order to be more accurate, and to develop a strategy for the Fed's interest rate cut decision, we must have a deep understanding of the dynamics of the job market and the drivers behind it. By combining long-term historical experience and multi-dimensional observation indicators, we can grasp the trend of the job market more comprehensively and provide strong support for future policy adjustments.
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