Hu Qimu is the deputy secretary-general of the China Digital and Real Integration 50 Forum.
After the Spring Festival holiday, a number of projects in various places have started one after another, and it is a busy scene. Judging from the recent economic operation data, the momentum of China's sustained economic improvement is constantly strengthening, which strengthens the confidence in the high-quality economic and social development this year.
Judging from the consumption data during the Spring Festival, the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society has reached 229.3 billion people, the total cost of domestic tourists is 63268.7 billion yuan, and the average daily amount of online payment transactions processed by NetUnion UnionPay reached 125 trillion yuan, which shows that the consumption momentum is strong.
From the point of view of the ** index, except for the year-on-year decline in January CPI affected by the Spring Festival staggered month, in fact, since November last year, the year-on-year decline in CPI has narrowed, and the trend of expanding the month-on-month increase has emerged, and the price scissors difference (CPI-PPI) is constantly converging, which is behind the continuous accumulation of consumption momentum.
From the perspective of infrastructure, according to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in January this year, domestic excavator sales increased by 57 percent year-on-year7%, the largest year-on-year increase in more than two years. This means that China's infrastructure demand is strong, and construction projects are accelerating the physical workload.
In addition, this year's monetary and fiscal policies are significantly stronger than last year's in terms of policy strength and effectiveness.
First of all, look at monetary policy, last year, the interest rate differential between China and the United States once widened to about 300 basis points, which put the RMB exchange rate under huge depreciation pressure. At the same time, attracted by huge interest rate differentials, cross-border arbitrage of capital has also increased the pressure on capital outflows. In this case, the space for monetary policy is greatly compressed, whether it is a RRR cut or an interest rate cut, which will increase the pressure on RMB depreciation and capital outflow, so it is difficult for monetary policy to give full play to its support for the real economy. This year, however, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has basically ended, and the probability of a rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing. In this case, China's monetary policy can be more "self-centered" and consider how to support the recovery of the real economy by providing abundant liquidity and reducing the cost of funds, rather than considering the RMB exchange rate and cross-border capital flows.
From the point of view of fiscal policy, due to the relatively large scale of concentrated maturity of local bonds last year, the financial funds used to repay the principal and interest of local bonds accounted for 14 percent of the local general public budget revenue, which greatly restricted the ability of fiscal policy to exert force in steady growth. This means that the requirements of the first economic work conference on "active fiscal policy to be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency" can be effectively implemented, and fiscal policy will play a more active role in stabilizing growth this year. In addition, the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to rise sharply this year, which also gives more room for fiscal policy to manoeuvre.
In the medium to long term, the trend of sustained economic growth in China has not changed, the economic growth rate is still among the highest among major economies, and China's new growth momentum is constantly emerging and consolidating while maintaining its traditional advantages.
In terms of market size, China is the world's second largest economy and the second largest consumer market. In 2023, China's GDP will exceed 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 52%, the growth rate is 2 faster than in 20222 percentage points. The per capita GDP has increased steadily, reaching 89,358 yuan in 2023, an increase of 54%。This is close to the standard for a high-income country set by the World Bank.
From the perspective of the industrial system, China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification, and the complete industrial system and infrastructure allow China to occupy an irreplaceable position in the global industrial chain. Moreover, judging from the data, in 2023, the scale of China's actual use of foreign investment will be the third highest in history, and the newly established foreign-invested enterprises will increase by about 40% year-on-year, indicating that the attractiveness of China's industrial system to global investors has not been reduced due to factors such as great power competition and geopolitics.
From the perspective of resource elements, on the one hand, China's demographic dividend is changing to a talent dividend, with a gross enrollment rate of about 60% in higher education, the overall quality of the labor force is constantly improving, and China has the world's largest group of engineers, providing sufficient talent support for industrial development; On the other hand, China's well-developed Internet infrastructure and massive data resources generated by its huge population in economic activities will strongly promote the process of digital and real integration and create greater value.
From the perspective of urbanization, China's urbanization rate will reach 6616%, compared with the level of more than 80% of advanced economies, there is still room for improvement, and China's urbanization is still in the process of continuous development. Although the rapid stage of urbanization has ended, in the process of promoting high-quality new urbanization, China's infrastructure demand still has a lot of room for growth in the next decade.
From the perspective of new growth momentum, the cultivation of strategic emerging industries and future industries continues to bear fruit, in addition to technological breakthroughs in the aerospace field, in 2023, China's electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells"The new three"The total export of products is 106 trillion yuan, breaking through the trillion mark for the first time, an increase of 299%, the international market share is far ahead.
Therefore, whether from the perspective of short-term data or long-term trends, the foundation to support China's development is solid and the development momentum is good. China should have the confidence and confidence to do its own thing. It is necessary to see clearly the tricks of some people with ulterior motives to decline China's economy through first-class warfare and information warfare, resolve the problems faced with high-quality development, and constantly push forward the historical cause of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Editor: Li Zhi, Jiang Xinyu, Zhang Yanling.