In 2023, the global timber industry has undergone a lot of changes. Now based on the development of the timber industry in 2023, I will briefly take a look at the development of the major timber markets in the world in 2024.
European market
In the past year, only 3 European countries (Germany, Poland, Russia) have entered the list of China's top 10 timber countries, among which Poland's timber exports to China have increased most significantlyReached 9237%；European oak exports to China have significantly decreased due to reduced timber production, a trend that is expected to continue in 2024 until problems such as inflation and the downturn in the construction sector are resolved.
In 2023, Russia has been trying to open up new markets, and the amount of timber from its first Turkey has increased by 23 times to 280,000 cubic meters; Timber exports to the UAE increased by 64% to 490,000 cubic metres, although China remains the main importer of Russian timber. Due to the increase in the interest rate of the central bank, the cost of Russian credit money is also increasing, which is expected to affect the operational pressure of the Russian timber industry in 2024.
African market
Oceania market
Australia officially resumed log exports to China from May 18, 2023**, and since the second half of the year, more and more Australian logs have been successfully exported to China through legal channels. However, from January 1, 2024, the Australian state of Victoria and other regions began to ban the cutting of native forests, and local timber merchants had to purchase and transport from other regions, which increased the pressure on timber and operating costs to a certain extent.
It is expected that in 2024, the problem of Australia's timber shortage will gradually become apparent, and as the cost of timber increases** may lead to other problems, it will be difficult to restore timber ** to previous levels with China in a short period of time.
New Zealand is the country that exports the most timber to China in 2023, totaling 18.23 million cubic meters. However, under the influence of the slowdown in China's market demand, New Zealand's logs exported to China in 2023 have experienced nearly 5 months until the end of 2023, after China's log imports have picked up, New Zealand logs have arrived in Hong Kong, according to the current market situation analysis, it is expected that this wave of growth will continue to the first quarter of 2024.
By the end of 2023, Papua New Guinea had exported a total of 2.32 million cubic meters of timber to China, of which logs still accounted for 974%, less than a year away from the "2025 log export ban commitment", according to the current situation, it may be difficult for PNG to complete the commitment as scheduled.
North American market
In 2023, the United States is still Canada's largest lumber export market, but the United States still insists on setting high tariffs on Canadian softwood products, making it impossible for many builders to reduce procurement costs.
At the beginning of this year, China once again extended the tariff exemption for some American hardwood (oak, cherry, ash), according to the import trend in recent years**, the first half of 2024 will be the concentrated arrival period of North American oak, cherry and ash wood. During the tariff exemption period, if the United States can guarantee normal timber production, it is expected that the ** of these kinds of timber will not fluctuate much.
2023 has been a nightmare for Canada's forestry industry, with more than 6,500** disasters in Canada since the spring, with a total of 45.7 million acres (18.5 million hectares) burned and nearly tripled the previous annual record, covering the spread from Nova Scotia in the east to British Columbia in the west.
Wildfires interrupt normal timber **, especially in the second half of the year, when the problem of timber ** becomes more apparent. With the 2024 wildfire season just a few months away, many fear that a recurrence of "major wildfires" in the short term would be a major blow to Canada's forestry industry.
However, judging from the customs data, Canada's timber exports to China will not change significantly in 2023, and it is expected that Canada and China will maintain a stable timber ** relationship in the coming year.
South American market
Thanks to the efforts of Brazil's new **, deforestation in the Amazon rainforest was brought under control in 2023, while timber production also decreased compared to 2022; After a long period of time, Brazilian timber in the international market has finally leveled off at the end of 2023.
At the same time, Brazil's timber exports to China fell by 41 percent amid a slowdown in Chinese demand15% to 71690,000 cubic meters, it is expected that under the reasonable control of the **Amazon forest, Brazil's timber exports to China will not increase significantly in 2024.
Asian market
The Vietnamese market has passed a long period of "order window" in 2023 and did not begin to recover until the fourth quarter, but these orders are short-term orders and cannot fully drive the development of Vietnam's timber industry. On the whole, Vietnam's timber industry is still too completely dependent on the international market, and if there is no significant increase in orders from Europe and the United States in 2024, Vietnam's timber industry will return to the "trough period".
Originally, in 2023, China's timber market will pick up again under the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, but in fact, the annual timber import volume (65.79 million m) is not as good as that in 2022 (70.07 million m), and from the second half of the year, the import demand is still declining, and it will not pick up until the fourth quarter. In previous years, the demand for timber in the domestic market will show up in the second quarter, and timber traders can keep a close eye on the market after the holiday**.