(This article is taken from "Gao Fengyong's Economic Explanation").
On February 6, A-shares changed their previous decline, and all indices came out of the trend of first declining and then rising, so that everyone had better expectations for the trend before the Spring Festival and even in the first quarter.
Beijing Stock Exchange - today's ** leader
Among the major indexes, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index is among the best, with an increase of 95%, in front of the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index, only the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index rose by 955%；As a comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index **323%, the SSE 50 rose 282%, CSI 300 rose 348%；
Judging from the Beijing Stock Exchange, among the 244 **, only China Textile Standard fell slightly by 011%, and all the rest**, of which 221 rose by more than 6%, accounting for 9057%；There are more than 102 companies with an increase of more than 10%, and 9 companies with a daily limit (the daily limit of the Beijing Stock Exchange is 30%), so if the Beijing Stock Exchange has all composite indexes, its increase is more than that of the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index.
In fact, the Beijing Stock Exchange had a change yesterday, such as Concentric Transmission, Mingyang Technology, Tongli Shares and many other companies took the lead in the situation of a sharp decline in micro-cap stocks, so the Beijing Stock Exchange is quite a bit of a "leader" taste.
Why is this behaving in this way?
As we all know, since January, the micro-cap stocks in Shanghai have been the most serious sector, and the CNI 2000 Index, which represents the trend of micro-cap stocks, has increased from 7588 at the end of last year5 o'clock until today's lowest of 513336 points, a drop of 3235%。The Beijing Stock Exchange is also dominated by small-capitalization listed companies, but most of its ** decline is smaller than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen micro cap stocks, and it is the first to take a large **, what are the reasons?
The author believes that at least the following aspects can be summarized:
Clause. 1. Compared with companies of the same size in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the valuation of companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange is more reasonable;
In the early stage, with the adjustment of the Beijing Stock Exchange, the median static P/E ratio of listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange has been less than 20 times; Compared with the average valuation level of companies in the same industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen, it has obvious valuation advantages;
From the perspective of total market capitalization, compared with the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen micro-cap stocks, the valuation of the Beijing Stock Exchange is generally close to double or even more than double;
Clause. Second, compared with the small market capitalization of Shanghai and Shenzhen, the companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange are more growth-oriented.
In the brutal market competition in recent years, most small-capitalization companies have no advantage in performance and growth in recent years, and many companies have even encountered relatively large operating difficulties;
The Beijing Stock Exchange, which is also a small market capitalization, although the performance of individual companies has declined due to the overall environment, according to the disclosure of the third quarterly report and the recent disclosure of the performance report, many companies have achieved rapid growth in performance, and there are even many companies with very prominent bright spots.
Low valuation, high growth, and fundamental reasons are the most basic reasons for the trend of the Beijing Stock Exchange.
Clause. 3. Trading varieties and mechanism factors.
I chatted with some friends who invested in the Beijing Stock Exchange, and they often said that the Beijing Stock Exchange is still a relatively "pure" market;
As we all know, this year, the market has paid great attention to the risk of market selling pressure caused by snowball products, quantitative trading, securities lending and refinancing, liquidation of two financings, and equity pledges.
For a period of time, the regulatory authorities have also restricted the quantification and financial integration of the Shanghai market, and on February 6, it directly suspended the scale of the refinancing securities of the new ** companies, and the stock was gradually closed, which received positive feedback from the market;
However, looking back at the Beijing Stock Exchange, because it is in the early stage of development, the product structure of the Beijing Stock Exchange is simple, there are no derivatives, the current scale and quantitative trading of the two financial institutions are very small, and the proportion of equity pledge is low, so there is basically no selling pressure caused by the above factors.
Specifically: 1. It is not affected by the concentrated knock-in of snowballs.
The recent index snowball product knock-in is mainly concentrated in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, and the Beijing Stock Exchange** has not yet included two indexes, and there is no stock index**, which will not be directly affected by the snowball centralized knock-in.
2. There is no large inflow and outflow of quantitative funds.
The strategy of quantitative products that have attracted much attention recently is mainly to obtain excess returns by going long** and shorting the index**. Since the beginning of this year, the increase in hedging costs in the market has brought pressure on the spot market to reduce positions, especially on small and mid-cap stocks. At present, there is no stock index ** on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and the quantitative neutral strategy is not supported.
3. The balance of the two financial institutions is significantly lower.
According to wind data, the current financing balance of the Beijing Stock Exchange is about 1 billion yuan, accounting for only 065%。In the same period, the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was about 14 trillion yuan, the balance of securities lending and borrowing is about 60 billion yuan, and the balance of the two financial institutions accounts for about 2 of the circulating market value5%。In terms of scale and proportion, the Beijing Stock Exchange is significantly lower than other sectors, and there will be no large-scale liquidation.
At the same time, the Beijing Stock Exchange currently has no refinancing business, and the balance of securities lending is only about 8 million yuan.
4. The proportion of equity pledge is negligible.
According to wind data, according to the Beijing Stock Exchange, only 4 companies have equity pledges, and the market value of the pledge is less than 10 billion, accounting for less than 03%, and there has been no announcement of supplementary pledge disclosure by the Beijing Stock Exchange company recently.
Therefore, similar to the practice that everyone is particularly concerned about and worried about in the Shanghai market, there is no large-scale development on the Beijing Stock Exchange;
The follow-up is still worth looking forward to
Judging from the recent reports, the reform measures of the Beijing Stock Exchange are actively promoting.
For example, the Beijing Stock Exchange issued a notice on the 920** test last week, and today issued a press release on the action plan to improve the quality of listed companies, covering a lot of very important reforms.
In fact, for the continuous reform of the Beijing Stock Exchange, I have written a lot of articles before, such as "The Wind and Things Should Look at the Volume--Talk about the Beijing Stock Exchange**" Beijing Stock Exchange: 2024** Continue? ", can the Beijing Stock Exchange still move forward? In fact, last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission launched 19 deep reforms of the Beijing Stock Exchange, some of which have been implemented, and many reforms are on the way;
In the past two days, I have also seen some autobiographical gossip that is contrary to the 19 articles of the deep reform, I think it is not very credible, my personal opinion: for example, the market expects several important reforms such as direct IPO, at best, because of the current extreme environment in the capital market, we need to wait for a more suitable launch time, but in the end it will not be absent, we can all keep looking forward to it.
Beijing Stock Exchange, I am more optimistic this year, especially at this point in time!