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On February 5th, although the big A was still surging in the undercurrent, the long and short games were like a competition.
However, there have been two rare signals in the market, which may suggest that the national team has a new route to save the market.
The first signal, the regulator rarely spoke out on the risk of staking during the lunch break.
The market value of the pledge in the two cities accounted for 1051% to 338%, and the balance of pledge financing is increased by 269 trillion yuan fell to 159 trillion yuan, the number of the largest shareholders of listed companies with a pledge ratio of more than 80% has dropped from 702 to 227.
More importantly, the regulator said that it would guide brokerages and others to increase the elasticity of the liquidation line and promote the smooth operation of the market.
The second signal is that there is a rare explosion of ETFs in the small and medium-sized enterprise category.
*After the afternoon market opened, the trading volume of related CSI 500 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF and ChiNext ETF all increased significantly;
Among them, the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF exceeded 16 billion, almost more than 10 times the daily trading volume.
The national team took advantage of the ETF to launch a rare bailout in the non-state-controlled sector.
These two signals are very important and informative!
This may indicate that the focus of the national team's future bailout will gradually shift from ** stocks to small and medium-cap stocks, and in the future, more rescue ammunition will be invested in private enterprises with stronger shareholder feelings.
Then, I will explain the change in the thinking of the national team to save the market from two perspectives, namely the central state-owned enterprises represented by the first shares, and the private enterprises represented by small and medium-sized caps.
First of all, the risk of big A is not in the strong central state-owned enterprises.
Bank of China, PetroChina, China Mobile and other enterprises are state-owned assets, and their bargaining chips are firmly in our own hands.
Whether it is foreign capital or other malicious short-selling forces, there is no way to short without chips.
Although the central state-owned enterprises belong to the target of margin financing and securities lending, it is impossible for the major shareholders to lend their own ** to securities lending institutions, because the central state-owned enterprises have no incentive to lend at all.
Although the public offering ** also holds the ** of the central state-owned enterprises, it will not easily lend this kind of **, after all, this is a bottom-line problem, and no ** manager dares to step on this red line.
Take 10,000 steps back and say, even if there is a source of central state-owned enterprises in the market, which institution dares to short-sell the central state-owned enterprises for the sake of interests?
So,There are very few forces in the market that dare to lend securities and short the central state-owned enterprises.
There are only bulls in this field, and there are few bears.
The same logic is linearly extrapolated to the staking space. There is no shortage of financing channels for central state-owned enterprises themselves, such as bank loans and fiscal transfers.
If you are not short of money, you will naturally not take your own ** to pledge; Without pledge, there is no risk of being forced liquidated.
There is many, many more logic ...
The conclusion is that central state-owned enterprises are precisely the safest assets in the market. In other words, they are too powerful and are the most difficult to short in the market.
However, the national team had to save them.
The reason is that the funds of the national team are the funds of the state, and it is not easy for the national team to rescue the central state-owned enterprises to cause the loss of state-owned assets.
This has created a situation of two days in the market, one is the Bank of China, PetroChina, China Mobile stocks, and heavyweight stocks, and we can feel the heat of the bull market at a glance. (See image above).
On the other hand, the stock prices of small and medium-sized stocks such as photovoltaics, batteries, chips, and pharmaceuticals and private enterprises continue to be **, and it is also a bear market in which shareholders feel the pain of the skin.
Next, let's talk about private enterprises represented by small and medium-sized caps.
In recent years, private enterprises have become an important part of the sustainable development of our economy.
They contribute more than 50% of the country's tax revenue, more than 60% of GDP, about 70% of technological innovation, more than 80% of jobs, and more than 90% of market players.
However, this type of group accounts for more than half of the market value in **, accounting for only about 40%.
It is these 40% that have become the objects of the ** being set on fire.
Let's take an example of a snowball product that has attracted a lot of attention in the market recently.
Small and medium-sized enterprises often correspond to the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), which is also the main position of the recent hot snowball products.
According to the previous calculations of the Cinda metalworking team, the "snowball" products linked to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are below 4800 and 5200 points respectively.
In this range, the average decline of 100 points led to the knock-in of about 10 billion yuan of CSI 500 "snowball" and 13 billion CSI 1000 "snowball" products.
On February 5, the CSI 500 Index** was about 4460 points, and the CSI 1000 Index** was about 4293 points, both of which entered the knock-in range.
In other words, the "snowball" product has incurred substantial and concentrated losses; In particular, the leveraged snowball products were basically liquidated.
Behind this are not only the high-net-worth holders of snowball products, but also the majority of small and medium-sized shareholders corresponding to snowball products, as well as the small and medium-sized entrepreneurs behind the small and medium-sized caps.
Figure: Staking ratio; Data**: Oriental Fortune.
Let's take another case of staking that has attracted a lot of attention.
Because of the limited financing channels of small and medium-sized enterprises, most of them will pledge out ** in exchange for capital turnover, which is nothing more than the different levels of the pledge ratio.
At present, more than 90% of the pledges in ** are concentrated in small and medium-sized private enterprises (see the figure above), and their risks have to be guarded against.
Because,This kind of impact is often concentrated, and it is extremely easy to bring about a flash crash.
Unlike public and private placements, which are planned and rhythmic, pledge liquidation is often a one-click liquidation that is directly pressed to the fall limit.
Popularly known as the "nuclear button".
It is undeniable that the performance of those companies with a high pledge ratio is often average, and the cash flow is not much, otherwise they will not pledge a high proportion of ** in exchange for liquidity.
Just like when we usually mortgage our house, it is often when cash is already very tight, and there is no way, which is a next step.
The flash crash of these companies is not terrible in itself, but the contagion of panic behind it is terrible.
In the end, I personally think that the superposition of various reasons has led to the beginning of the scene.
On Feb. 5, the regulator made a rare public statement during the midday breakBrokerages and other institutions should increase the flexibility of the liquidation line.
In fact, it is saying, don't add unnecessary panic to the market; It is a policy for small and medium-sized enterprises to save the market.
Not only shouting, but also real gold**.
After the opening of the market on the afternoon of February 5, the national team entered the market to rescue the market, and also concentrated its firepower on the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and GEM, which are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises.
The national team's rescue of the market this time has opened up new ideas, saving the small and medium-sized board is to cut off the panic, and saving private enterprises is to set aside thousands of pounds!