We make the best investment, looking at the future development of the enterprise, and the main thing that determines the future development of the enterprise is the actual controller of the enterprise.
One of the four key points of value investment that I talked about in the Yansong Investment Research Circle is the founder and actual controller of the company.
Through the different characteristics of the actual controller of the enterprise and the stage he is in, we can analyze his strategic planning for the enterprise.
Enterprises are often divided into central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and some enterprises under the group. The enterprises under the group are divided into key and resource integration.
Last year's thunderstorm in the planting system, this kind of play capital operation. There are also the same type as it, the Complex Star System and the Fangda System. It's just that the planting system is playing pure capital operation, integrating the listing of enterprises, and making the price difference between the primary and secondary markets. And revival is more like a group company with a rich industrial chain, it is not a pure game of capital, but it is also a game of capital.
In day-to-day investments, companies like these that play with capital, we never think about it. It is often the central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises that deserve our consideration. State-owned enterprises often have special rights. State-owned enterprises also tend to have specific natural conditions. Among the central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, we have to look at which ones are the key points and which ones are ordinary roles. Central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are relatively easy to choose.
The choice of private enterprises is more difficult. In fact, the boss of a private enterprise is mainly an individual, which is divided into the manager system and the actual controller decision-making.
Considering the term of work of professional managers, I think the enterprise planning cycle is more reasonable in five to ten years, too long-term to be certain, too short and not to reflect the value.
As the primary decision-maker, the actual controller of the enterprise depends on his current position, and we should pay special attention to this when we usually choose the best person. Here are a few examples.
For example, in 2018, we have always recommended BYD's **, which was firm in the position of 40 yuan**, and later rose to more than 170 and was sold. At that time, BYD, the core point is actually optimistic about Wang Chuanfu's ability, started a business in 1995, and in 2000, it was able to make the mobile phone battery the top two in the world, which represents the ability. After the mobile phone battery was completed, he began to enter the automotive industry, constantly integrating batteries with cars. In recent years, the state has vigorously supported new energy vehicles, so the first to succeed must be the first to do new energy vehicles, and at the same time the boss has a strong ability to do enterprises.
There is also Gan & Lee Pharmaceutical, the actual controller of Gan & Lee Pharmaceutical, who is over 70 years old, is the number one person in the field of insulin in China, and has become such a big company. Previously, when Gan & Lee Pharmaceutical was more than 30 yuan, Gan Zhongru set an increase at a position 20% lower than the stock price. Some people say that he is playing trick arbitrage. But I don't think so, a scientist of this age, with this status, will not bear this infamy for the sake of 20% profit. At this time, the fixed increase is actually because he is optimistic about the future development of his company.
In addition, we bought Xiaomi at a low level before, and later when Xiaomi built a car, we decisively threw away Xiaomi. This is also a decision we make based on our judgment of the founder. Whether Xiaomi can build a car or not, let's not talk about it first. But Lei Jun does Xiaomi, we judge that he just wants to be a bigger enterprise and reflect the value of life, which has nothing to do with money.
The wealth of these people has long been inexhaustible for many lifetimes, so he has made millet in order to reflect his personal value, which can be regarded as relatively successful. Now he wants to make cars, because he hopes to achieve a higher level of achievement in life.
You know, the difficulty of making a car must be much greater than that of a mobile phone, and the probability of his success is not high. But for Lei Jun himself, if he doesn't succeed, he doesn't care. Even if Xiaomi Auto is not successful, Lei Jun is also a very good entrepreneur. If Xiaomi Auto succeeds, his status will be even higher. It has nothing to do with money, what he wants is the pursuit of life.
But we bought Xiaomi's **, as an investor, we only see if we can make a profit.
The next big gamble of Lei Jun is to bet on his personal achievements, his personal achievements have nothing to do with us, and we should not continue to gamble on his personal achievements, so I left decisively.
Let's talk about Geely Automobile, which we often mention, it is also based on a high judgment of the actual controller.
The people we just talked about Lei Jun and Wang Chuanfu, in fact, money has nothing to do with them, including Li Shufu of Geely Automobile. We can't understand them with the minds of ordinary people, and we don't measure them by money. We ordinary people are short of money, so we will consider the problem of money. And these people have already reached a very high level of wealth many years ago, and they can't spend it for hundreds of years, so they do it for their own achievements.
For example, Li Shufu's previous idea was to make cars cheaper and better, and in order to build better, he acquired Volvo and Lotus to become the largest shareholder of Mercedes-Benz. It's all about technology.
Now in the new energy era, he has invested more than ten years in the new energy of methanol fuel. At present, the first step of new energy vehicles is the battery, and what is the next step to generate electricity for the battery in the future? It may be the methanol fuel that Li Shufu laid out more than ten years ago.
Entrepreneurs like Wang Chuanfu and Li Shufu do things in order to contribute to society for life, and the money is only earned by the way. That's the big entrepreneurs, and we should invest in their companies.
Of course, it's not recommended that you buy these ** now, like BYD, we bought it at more than 40 yuan before, and sold it for more than 170 yuan, and then the market continued to push it to more than 300 yuan.
The main reason for talking about these examples is to say that when making investment, the founder is the core of the company's direction, and the actual controller determines the company's direction. Therefore, the study of the actual controller is very important.