Core content
It is clear that the infrastructure construction of 12 provinces and cities with excessive debt needs to be delayed. As soon as the news came out, a number of practitioners were worried, and the engineering industry was worse off in an endless stream, and Ruidaheng Research Institute combined with the recent policy orientation and realistic background believes that it is essentially a market stabilization measure for the real estate industry, which can be seen from the rapid landing of the "white list" of real estate projects.
3,218 real estate projects were selected into the first batch of "white lists", with financing needs exceeding 500 billion yuan. Due to the stricter selection conditions and most of the projects are of high quality, the special funds will effectively alleviate the tension of the capital chain of high-quality projects, ensure the continued construction and delivery of the project, and focus on the phased opportunities brought about by the further relaxation of real estate policies in the future.
In the first batch of "white list" of real estate projects, private and mixed-ownership real estate enterprises accounted for 84%, which met the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination. According to the Ruidaheng Engineering Information Network, the number of projects under construction of only six typical insuring real estate companies, including Country Garden, Greenland and Sunac, is close to 4,000, with a total cost of more than 1,538.7 billion yuan. Ruidaheng Research Institute believes that after the release of the real estate "white list", the local government will be more proactive in ensuring that local revitalized projects are given priority protection, which will effectively drive the acceleration of "guaranteed delivery of buildings", and more project information can be paid attention to Ruidaheng Engineering Information Network - Project Special Topic - Guaranteed Delivery Building.
** In the economic work conference, it was clearly proposed to "establish first and then break" to stabilize the original pillar industries such as real estate. It is foreseeable that the policy environment for buying houses will become more and more relaxed in 2024, and a number of difficult real estate projects will be supported. In this adjustment period, all participants in the construction industry need to pay close attention to the policy trend and seize the national key development projects such as "guaranteed delivery of buildings" and "three major projects" to survive and develop.
12 key provinces and cities "stepped on the brakes" for infrastructure construction
Concentrate on "ensuring the delivery of the building".
· Blockbuster release! Infrastructure construction in 12 key provinces and cities has been suspended
On December 24, 2023, the General Office of the People's Republic of China issued a notice on the "Measures for the Management of Investment Projects in Key Provinces (Trial)", clarifying that 12 key provinces and cities including Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia shall not build new (including renovation, expansion and purchase) investment projects (including local levels) in seven areas such as transportation and new infrastructure in 2024, except for basic livelihood projects such as water supply, heating and power supply. investment projects), strictly clean up and standardize the first investment projects under construction.
· Concentrate on "ensuring the delivery of buildings" and stabilizing the real estate market
In the final analysis, these 12 provinces and cities are basically regions with very serious local debts or underdeveloped economies (see Figure 2).
Infrastructure itself has a marginal effect, and under the background of negative population growth and the underdeveloped economy of some cities, the problem of infrastructure waste has emerged, and its marginal benefit has become more and more obvious, and the crisis of "urban investment bonds" has broken out in a concentrated manner. Therefore, Ruidaheng Research Institute believes that the main purpose of this document is to require the local government to make every effort to resolve local debt risks, prohibit blind construction and excessive construction, and concentrate on promoting the "guaranteed delivery of buildings" and "three major projects", etc., and strictly control investment projects before the debt risk is reduced to a medium and low level.
In general, the Institute believes that the slowdown of infrastructure construction does not mean that the market demand is shrinking, and that this measure is necessary and beneficial from the perspective of long-term sustainable development of the local economy. From the recent release of the "white list" of real estate projects to be quickly implemented, it can also be seen that the determination to resolve the debt risk of real estate enterprises and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The first batch of "white lists" of real estate projects landed.
The progress of "guaranteed delivery" is expected to be accelerated
3,218 real estate projects were selected into the first batch of "white lists", with financing needs exceeding 500 billion yuan.
According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's "White List" of the First Batch of Real Estate Projects in Various Regions (hereinafter quoted as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's article) on February 6, 2024, "as of the end of January, 170 cities in 26 provinces have established urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms and proposed the first batch of real estate projects'The white list' and pushed to commercial banks, involving a total of 3,218 real estate projects."
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, as of February 18, a total of 25 provincial and municipal units have announced the "white list", involving 2,896 projects, with a total financing demand of more than 500 billion yuan (see Figure 3 for details).
From the perspective of provincial energy level, Yunnan Province has the largest number of declared projects and the largest scale of financing needs, with 619 and 151.9 billion yuan respectively; followed by Hunan Province, with 566 declared projects; Yunnan Province and Hunan Province have a total of 1,185, accounting for nearly 40% of the first batch of lists.
From the perspective of city energy level, most of the first cities to report to the "white list" are provincial capitals. The largest number of projects reported in Chongqing was 314, and Zhengzhou, Chengdu and Kunming all reported more than 200.
· March of the battle to "ensure the delivery of buildings": a large part of the high-quality real estate projects in the "white list" may receive financing support
Some industry insiders are concerned that financial institutions are the decision-making units that make loans and may not be able to obtain financing in the end.
Ruidaheng Research Institute is more optimistic about the shortlisted projects to obtain bank loans for the following reasons:
1. The implementation of the "white list" of real estate projects can be called fast, and it is one of the important ways to practice "guaranteed delivery".
On January 12, 2024, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision proposed to meet the reasonable financing needs of high-quality projects, and held a deployment meeting of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism on the 26th, and the first batch of "white list" projects were released at the end of the month, which lasted less than a month.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" has achieved good results, with the cumulative area of real estate completions reaching 9,983.1 billion square meters, an increase of 17% year-on-year. Next, the "guaranteed delivery building" will enter the battle of tackling tough problems, and the "white list" of real estate projects will be anchored by specific projects and earmarked funds, which is undoubtedly a good medicine.
2. The requirements for being shortlisted in the "white list" are strict, and the project itself is strong
The first batch of real estate projects that can be shortlisted for the "white list" and actually receive loan support need to meet five requirements such as high development and construction progress and sufficient collateral, that is, most of the projects are mainly high-quality projects currently under normal construction, which is worthy of the attention of material suppliers.
3. Financial supervision proposes "three not less than" to provide necessary financial support
The financial supervision proposed: "The growth rate of real estate loans of each bank shall not be lower than the average growth rate of real estate loans in the banking industry; The growth rate of corporate loans to non-state-owned real estate enterprises shall not be lower than the growth rate of local real estate; The growth rate of individual mortgages for non-state-owned real estate enterprises shall not be lower than the mortgage growth rate of the Bank". These "three not less than" means that financial institutions are willing to provide more capital flows to promote the development and construction of projects. For property developers, it is easier for them to get the financing they need.
4. In order to stabilize the real estate market and stabilize the economy, the local government will actively protect local real estate enterprises and projects
Although the "white list" of real estate projects is generally consistent with the previous "guaranteed delivery of buildings" for project-level support, the "bottom-up" feedback path has been dredged in the process.
Real estate is still one of the important pillars of the current economy, and the completion of real estate projects selected for the "white list" is directly related to the competitiveness of the local economy. Therefore, Ruidaheng Research Institute believes that the "white list" may effectively promote local supervision, promote the issuance of loans by commercial banks within the administrative area, and ensure that these projects are given priority protection.
In summary, it is more likely that the project level will receive financing support. Also according to an article by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, "After receiving the list, commercial banks reviewed projects in accordance with regulations, and have issued loans to 83 projects in 27 cities with a total of 178600 million yuan".
· Private and mixed-ownership real estate projects accounted for 84%, and met the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership without discrimination
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development article also pointed out that "in the first batch of real estate project lists, 84% of the projects belong to projects developed by private real estate enterprises and mixed-ownership real estate enterprises". According to the information released by various real estate developers, Poly has the largest number of selected projects, with 172, followed by China Overseas with 107, China Resources with 101, and Longfor ranks first in the industry with 97.
Fourth, private enterprises first. The "white list" truly implements the same treatment to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownerships.
· The number of projects under construction of insured real estate enterprises is huge
We sorted out 6 typical private and mixed-ownership real estate enterprises that are out of risk, and combined with the self-owned database of Ruidaheng Engineering Information Network, we found that the number of projects currently under construction is close to 4,000, with a total cost of more than 1,538.7 billion yuan and a total construction area of about 800 million square meters. Among them, the first batch of Sunac and Greentown projects selected for the "white list" accounted for 13% and 11% of the total projects under construction, while Country Garden was only 15%, but it is mainly related to its deep cultivation of third- and fourth-tier cities, and this "white list" is mainly related to first- and second-tier cities, and it is expected that after other cities successively introduce their own "white lists", its proportion will usher in a significant increase.
· The second batch of "white lists" is on the way, and it is expected that real estate companies will more steadily promote other projects under construction that have not been shortlisted
According to the news, the second batch of lists in some cities has been sorted out, and it is expected that the follow-up "white list" will be further expanded. For real estate companies, the top priority is still to grasp the window period of favorable policies and strive for as many projects as possible to be selected. For material vendors, the "white list" is undoubtedly the first to help screen out a number of real estate projects with higher investment value and development potential, to provide these projects with the required materials and more reliable financial support, reduce business risks.
Even if not all projects of real estate enterprises can get loans from financial institutions, the "white list" can make it easier for eligible real estate projects to obtain bank loan support, thereby alleviating the financing pressure of enterprises, reducing the expenditure of headquarters on project funds, and concentrating funds to build non-shortlisted projects.
In general, the implementation of the "white list" is conducive to stabilizing the upstream and downstream chain of real estate and steadily solving the key problems of "ensuring the delivery of buildings".Ruidaheng Engineering Information Network - Project Topic - Guaranteed Delivery.
Policies are released intensively to stabilize the real estate market!
Establish first and then break, explore a new way out!
· Increase the dose from both the supply and demand ends
In addition to issuing a "white list" from the supply side to promote the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings", recent policies such as the relaxation of purchase restrictions in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions, reduce the interest rate of the loan market (LPR) and mortgage loan interest rates, etc., are also focusing on the demand side, that is, from both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market to form a boost.
· To develop, we must innovate, transform, and explore new ways for future development
China's real estate and local governments will actively and steadily resolve real estate risks. On December 11-12, 2023, the ** Economic Work Conference clearly stated that "to promote stability, first establish and then break, adhere to strengthening confidence and determination", and stabilize the original pillar industries such as real estate when the new industry cannot effectively stimulate the economy. It is foreseeable that the policy environment for buying houses will become more and more relaxed in 2024, and a number of difficult real estate projects will be supported.
In the face of the in-depth adjustment and transformation of the real estate industry and economic model, we can pay attention to the types of projects supported by the state, such as the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the "three major projects" of urban village transformation. Ruidaheng Research Institute will also continue to track national key support projects and industries for you, please pay attention to more hot informationRuidaheng Research Institute - Hot Comment Section.
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* The Economic Work Conference once again mentioned the resolution of real estate risks, and the "three major projects" attracted attention to the opportunities and challenges under the policy of "guaranteed delivery of buildings" in the post-unfinished building era.