Look at the quantitative indicators and lead the peak with wisdom.
Recently, everyone has seen the news of BYD Qin's price cut. Netizens said, "The Qin who drove 140,000 was scolded while walking, but the 780,000 Qin, even if the frame is broken, you can weld it yourself with a smile." After BYD cut prices, major car companies couldn't sit still and started their "shopping".
What is the future prospect of lithium carbonate due to the price reduction of new energy vehicles?
Yesterday, lithium carbonate once rushed to the limit, and the environmental protection problems of my Yichun lithium mine in Jiangxi Province were all over the place, and I checked it carefully, and it was not official and credible news. This should be a "small composition" from lithium carbonate bulls.
The technical side of lithium carbonate
Yesterday, lithium carbonate is a large volume, volume, but the position has fallen by about 8,000 hands, the funds do not have the confidence to hold positions, the bears may choose to go out yesterday, the confidence of the long position is not strong, today's trading volume fell sharply, the position was flat, and the wait-and-see attitude of over-the-counter funds was the mainstay.
Lithium carbonate cycle is actually still a bearish pattern, despite the ** 2 days, the technical side is still not long signal, from the disk as shown in the figure below, lithium carbonate has been in the low ** center for a long time, **pressure, ** and appear weak. This kind of ** belongs to the patient people, and the impatient people still wait for the signal to come and pay attention.
Fundamentals of lithium carbonate
Lithium extraction from lepidolite (also known as "mica extraction"), lithium extraction from salt lake brine and lithium extraction from spodumene are the three mainstream lithium extraction paths in the world.
The salt lake is dominated by potash extraction, and the by-product is lithium. So it's cheaper to extract lithium from salt lakes. Before the development of new energy vehicles, lithium was not worth much at all, and at that time, the lithium in the salt lake was directly discharged as waste into the tailings dam.
It is said that the cost of lithium extraction from salt lakes is about 60,000 yuan, and the cost of lithium extraction from high-level lepidolite mines is about 100,000 yuan. The cost of extracting lithium from imported ore is 120,000. Thinking that the original 600,000 tons of lithium carbonate made these mining companies make a lot of money, they desperately pulled production capacity and launched one project after another. Many new projects have just been completed, and it is found that the first time has come down, and there may be a loss in production capacity if you are cheeky. In this case, many projects may not be able to be started for a lifetime.
In 2023, China's basic lithium salt production capacity and output are as follows: lithium carbonate production capacity is 1.1 million tons, and the output is 51790,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 311%；The production capacity of lithium hydroxide is 700,000 tons, and the output is 31960,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 301%；Lithium chloride production capacity 250,000 tons, output 1750,000 tons, the output decreased by 21 percent year-on-year2%。The demand side is to see the development of the new energy vehicle industry, now the new energy vehicles have been encroaching on the market of low-cost oil vehicles, the demand side is still very strong, despite this, the production capacity of the sky is there, and the growth of the demand side still cannot make lithium carbonate ** reversed.
The surplus market needs a fierce competition, and only after surviving can we make limited profits stably.
In summary, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still in excess of demand. However, at present, only the lithium extraction from salt lakes still has good profits, and the pressure on other companies is still relatively large.
Lithium carbonate funding
This kind of thing, ** is the most positive, as can be seen by looking at the lithium carbonate position. At present, the largest net long is Zheshang**, followed by Huishang, Dongcai and Nanhua**. At present, the top net short positions are Guotai Junan, CITIC, Minmetals and Yongan. There are many macro arbitrage funds on CITIC, and Minmetals can use it as a hedging seat.
Recently, there are several seats that have suddenly ** lithium carbonate, namely Bohai **, COFCO ** and Baocheng **. Among them, COFCO is considered an official army, and tens of millions of large households often appear in Bohai and Baocheng.
From the perspective of capital, large funds have not recognized the "small composition" of the market, and there has not been a large number of air-conditioned positions.
To sum up, lithium carbonate ** needs to be cautious, yesterday's "rumors" did not continue to ferment, the fundamentals are oversupply, and overcapacity is very obvious. From the perspective of funding, a small number of institutions are still standing in short, there are not many people, and there is no joint funding.