Isn't that a good thing? El Niño may have weakened and disappeared, what happened? Does it mean that 2024 will not be hot? It's true that seeing this news seems like a good thing, but it's a bit complicated inside.
Because the development of El Niño will affect the climate pattern of the entire planet, and will cause its earth to warm more intensely, which will see that El Niño may weaken, is it a good thing, that means that 2024 will not be hot at all?
Let's take a look at what is going on step by step.
That's right, this is a new trend of El Niño development released by NOAA, and indeed such a change has made many people "relieved", after all, the emergence of El Niño has too much impact on climate change.
According to the new data, El Niño is likely to be close to the peak of the current round.
According to the data for the main monitoring area of the tropical Pacific Ocean in December 2023 (known as "NI O-3.").4 regions"), which is 2. higher than the average from 1991 to 20201 degree Celsius, and the unofficial threshold of 2 degrees Celsius above the average for very strong El Niño time, is the second month in a row.
If the ni o-3 in January4 The index eventually reached 19 °C or higher, that means that the development of El Niño continues, and that is no problem.
However, looking at the performance of El Niño, it is expected to weaken in the coming months, which is expected to be between April and June – with a 73% chance of disappearing, that is, no El Niño and no La Niña.
Of course, this statement is the same as that given by China's climate center, and our country also expects the current round of El Niño to continue into the spring, which seems to be the case for everyone.
However, it is important to note that historically, a strong El Niño in winter has usually led to a La Niña in the summer or autumn of the following year.
As a result, meteorologists expect a rapid switch back to La Niña in the summer of 2024, which has been rare in the past, after three consecutive La Niña winters turning to this year's El Niño.
However, I need to emphasize here that it is still in early warning, but it is generally clear that La Niña will manifest itself when El Niño disappears.
Therefore, let's take a look here, there is also a probability that it will not turn, but the law is "rotation", and everyone here should not be surprised, saying that the La Niña phenomenon has arrived, etc., after all, it has not yet developed.
Indeed, after experiencing 2023, many people have also seen whether 2024 will be hot or not, and it has always attracted much attention.
If it's true that 2024 will be hotter than 2023, that's really not a good thing. It can be seen from the global temperature data in 2023 that it is really ridiculously hot, including my country.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the average global temperature in 2023 is 145 degrees Celsius, up and down about 0At 12 degrees Celsius, global temperatures set new records every month from June to December 2023, and July and August were the hottest months on record. Such a temperature performance is quite terrifying.
And the whole world is so hot, and so is my country. In 2023, the average temperature in our country will be as high as 107, compared to the usual 99 is 08, and broke the 2021 105, which became the highest since 1961 and the hottest in 62 years.
The annual average temperature of 13 provinces (municipalities and districts) in China is the highest in history since 1961, and the daily maximum temperature of 127 national meteorological stations in the country has broken through the historical extreme.
So, in fact, it is very hot, if 2024 is hotter than 2023, you can believe that the situation under that high temperature is really unbelievable. Is that a weakening El Niño trend, and 2024 will not be hot at all?
This can be said to be a "big mistake", judging from the trend of global warming, the development of extreme high temperatures may be more ferocious, which is also a trend. And standing in the state of El Niño alone, it will not be hot because it disappears quickly, because the strongest effect of El Niño is generally stronger in the "second year" after it appears.
That means 2024 is only likely to be hotter. Zhou Bingdu, chief expert on climate services at the China Meteorological Administration, said: "2024 is likely to be hotter, or it could be a year when extreme weather becomes more frequent and intense. ”
Therefore, even if the El Niño really weakens and disappears, it does not mean that it is really not hot all of a sudden, and its follow-up effect still exists, and it may still be hotter.
That's what a lot of people say – in fact, with or without El Niño, it will be hotter.
2023 may be the coolest year, 2024 will probably be even hotter, and even if the trend of global warming has not changed in the future, it will continue to be hot, this is the trend, the trend that cannot be changed.
Therefore, in 2024, China is likely to deal with another round of extreme heat and an increase in extreme weather.
That's right, the changes in the earth have entered a new stage, according to the United Nations, the earth has entered the "boiling era", do you say that the earth is about to "can't hold on"? This is true, and the Earth's climate tipping point is changing more and more.
Once the earth's climate tipping point is fully breached, it means that the earth's climate change will basically lose its "momentum". And UN Secretary-General António Guterres once again stated in a statement: "Human behavior is burning the planet." If no action is taken, a catastrophic future awaits us, and groundbreaking action must be taken to address record-breaking temperature increases. ”
At COP28, the "Global Tipping Point" report also publicly pointed out that under the global warming trend, there are five climate "tipping points" on the earth that may be triggered.
These include mass deaths of warm-water coral reefs, melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, disruptions to the North Atlantic subpolar circulation, and the disappearance of some permafrost areas, which threaten to multiply the risks of climate change if these tipping points are triggered.
At the same time, in addition to these five, there are three other tipping points in the process, namely the mass extinction of mangroves, seagrass meadows, and forests in the northern high latitudes.
Therefore, the earth's climate is not optimistic, the earth is really about to "can't hold on", these climate tipping point changes, the earth will likely usher in a new round of pattern transformation process, once the climate tipping point collapses.
Then the earth's climate has entered a "new" era, and the possibility of human beings wanting to completely change the climate is very low, because after the climate tipping point is broken, it may be "irreversible".