At around 15 pm on February 1, the pre-sale box office of new films in the 2024 Spring Festival file exceeded 100 million, the fastest speed in the past three years. As of the evening of February 4, the total pre-sale box office of the Spring Festival stalls has reached 23.5 billion.
After the controversy over "mandatory film scheduling", many filmmakers in the Spring Festival file coincidentally chose to increase ticket compensation, which also increased the average ticket price of the Spring Festival file from 52 last year3 yuan pulled to 47$3. Judging from the result of "breaking 100 million yuan as soon as possible", the effect of the film's profit concession and drainage is very significant.
Beacon data shows that after the pre-sale of eight Spring Festival films was opened on January 31, "Hot and Hot", "Article 20" and "Flying Life 2" became the top 3 pre-sale box office, and the total pre-sale box office of the "Big Three" accounted for 82%, which opened a large gap with the films of the second and third echelons.
However, it is still unknown whether the final competition pattern of the schedule will be variable, after all, the mainstream genre of this year's Spring Festival file is comedy drama, and the upper limit of the box office of this genre can be compared to heavy industry blockbusters, but if the reputation is not good, the lower limit is difficult to say.
The "Big Three" and the "Three Echelons".
At present, the pre-sale box office and the number of people who want to watch the eight films in the Beacon Professional Edition are not all positively correlated, and there are four Spring Festival films with more than 200,000 people in the Lighthouse, and the order is "Hot and Hot Wan", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space Wan", "Flying Life" and "Article 20" of Ten Thousand Flying Life.
The films in the second echelon are "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" with about 100,000 people, and the third echelon is "Eight Rings: Canopy Descending to Earth" and "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat" that have not broken 50,000.
Looking at the pre-sale data again, on the evening of February 4, the top three are "Flying Life 2", "Hot and Hot" and "Article 20", and the pre-sale box office of the three films is 61.09 million, 59.44 million, and 56.14 million respectively, almost going hand in hand, and the "Big Three" pattern is initially emerging. In the second echelon are "Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space", "Mr. Red Carpet", and "Let's Shake the Sun Together", of which the highest pre-sale box office is 25.98 million for "Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space".
In the first echelon, the biggest contrast between the two data is "Article 20", however, judging from the first-day pre-sale user portrait given by the lighthouse on January 31, the user portrait of "Article 20" shows the characteristics of "one deep and two more": the deepest sinking, the most female users, and the most young users. This proves that the perception of "Article 20" in the main movie-watching group is relatively high, and its potential audience may not necessarily have the habit of marking "want to watch" on the **, but it can also be seen from the evaluation of "The movie of the national teacher should not be too bad" and other evaluations that they have a high degree of trust in the golden sign of "Zhang Yimou".
In addition, this year's "Article 20" takes the route of combining comedy and drama, which is exactly the same as the style of Zhang Yimou's "Man Jianghong" during the Spring Festival last year, which won the box office championship of the 2023 Spring Festival, which imperceptibly realized a chain of trust transmission. With a leading advantage in the three dimensions, the first-day pre-sale box office of "Article 20" is even slightly higher than that of "Flying Life 2", however, the overall proportion of the number of film schedules is still slightly lower than that of "Flying Life 2" and "Hot and Hot", and now the pre-sale box office has been surpassed by "Flying Life 2".
Among the "Big Three", "Flying Life 2" and "Hot and Hot" have similar styles, but the "big highlights" of the two comedies have their own merits, on one side is "Jia Ling lost 100 pounds", and on the other side is "100% content", which can be described as equal in terms of attractiveness. At present, it is likely that it will be difficult for the two films to open up a high box office difference in the pre-sale stage.
"Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space" wants to see the number of people in the first echelon, but the pre-sale box office is in the second echelon, which seems a little puzzling at first glance, but it is actually not surprising. From the 2018 Spring Festival stall 60.5 billion box office "Bear Infested Metamorphosis" will be 14 in the Spring Festival in 2023With a box office of 9.5 billion, the box office volume of a single film in the "Bear Infested" series has doubled, and word of mouth has also been boosted, becoming a relatively stable long-term IP for the Spring Festival in recent years.
Among the user portrait characteristics of the pre-sale on the first day of the Spring Festival, "Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space" is the existence of "attracting the most new users" and "family favorite", which also shows the IP influence that the series has continued to accumulate in the past few years. In this year's Spring Festival, the series is still the same as in previous years, "the first-day pre-sale box office accounts for 5%" start, the key is that it does not have an advantage in film scheduling, and the number of first-day shows accounts for only 112%。
On January 31, "Mr. Red Carpet" director Ning Hao and starring Andy Lau were guests in Dong Yuhui's live broadcast room, and 600,000 movie tickets were sold throughout the live broadcast6.1 billion, second only to "Flying Life 2" and "Hot and Hot". It is not difficult to see that the competition between the second echelon is also quite fierce.
Homogeneity and differentiation
Before the news was announced, the pre-sale box office of new films in the 2024 Spring Festival file exceeded 100 million in the past three years, and the outside world somewhat lacked confidence in this year's Spring Festival file. The reason is also very simple, in the past two years, there have been blockbusters such as "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake" and "The Wandering Earth 2" during the Spring Festival, in contrast, this year's Spring Festival comedy dramas occupy the mainstream, which also makes the schedule look somewhat thin, and many people even call this year "the worst".
Objectively speaking, today's hot pre-sale momentum is indeed inseparable from the filmmaker's vigorous ticket compensation, but it is difficult to be convincing to judge the lack of potential in the schedule just because of the absence of heavy industry blockbusters. Whether it is "Hello, Li Huanying" in the 2021 Spring Festival or "Man Jianghong" in the 2023 Spring Festival, it proves that non-heavy industry blockbusters also have the ability to win a box office of four or five billion yuan and become a phenomenal hit. In the final analysis, the genre is not the core factor that determines the box office ceiling of the film, but whether there is a national "explosion point" at the content level.
Judging from the type of subject matter and the trailers released so far, the audience base of the six comedies in this year's Spring Festival file is not small. "Flying Life 2", "Hot and Hot" and "This Killer is Not Calm", are all typical inspirational comedy movies, and the 2022 Spring Festival file "This Killer is Not Calm" will gain 26 on the premise of poor word-of-mouthThe box office of 2.7 billion proves the market imagination of this genre. Looking at the Spring Festival stalls again, "Warm", which will perform better at the box office in 2023, is also an inspirational comedy that eats all types of audiences of all ages.
In contrast, the selling point of "Article 20" is different from that of "Mr. Red Carpet", the former is a realistic comedy about "legitimate defense", in the words of director Zhang Yimou: "This time it is to tell the story of our people themselves, and project the joys, sorrows and sorrows of a family to thousands of households." "Mr. Red Carpet" is also a realistic theme, an absurd farce in the entertainment industry based on a true story, and the film poster reads: "The work must touch the truth, let us reflect on our lives, and be responsible for the truth." ”
If "Flying Life 2" and "Hot and Hot", which focus on the popular theme of inspiration, are in line with the mainstream trend of today's film and television content to provide positive emotional value to the audience, then "Article 20" and "Mr. Red Carpet", which are looking for new comedy themes under the skin of realism, are responding to the current audience's rigid demand for content that "has realistic value", "is related to me" and "benefits me". There is no superiority between the two sides, they are both products born after accurately judging the needs of the market and the audience.
Just as "This Killer is Not Calm" and "Warm" have confirmed the market space of inspirational comedies, "Keep You Safe", which will receive a box office of 700 million in 2023, also verifies the possibility of realistic comedy. The profound expression of mainland comedy returning to its peak is obviously a good thing for the film market, after Feng's comedy and happy twist comedy have led the comedy genre through a period of glory, where will the next stop of domestic comedy go, this year's Spring Festival file may be able to give a preliminary answer.
In addition to achieving differentiation from the theme, the vertical types and styles of the six comedy films are also different, such as "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" is a sci-fi comedy, and it is also the only sci-fi movie in this year's Spring Festival. Looking at "Flying Life 2" again, there is no shortage of exciting racing scenes in the film, which has a differentiated selling point from the visual effects level.
Of course, although the themes and incisions of the six comedies are different, which maximizes the different needs of the Spring Festival movie-watching groups for family carnival content, the homogenization problem brought about by the single schedule type does objectively exist, and a love-themed "Let's Shake the Sun Together" still does not dilute the concentration of comedy in the schedule. However, due to many reasons such as high costs, long production cycles, and reduced inventory accumulated by film and television companies in the past few years, it is indeed difficult for heavy industry blockbusters to attend the big schedule stably every year.
A new war with old faces
In the 2024 Spring Festival, the main creative lineup and film companies behind many films are basically old friends familiar to the audience.
As far as the main creative team is concerned, Han Han, director of "Flying Life 2", Jia Ling, director of "Hot and Hot", and Zhang Yimou, director of "Article 20", have all performed well during the Spring Festival in the past few years, which is also one of the important foundations for the three films to win at the starting line and become one of the important foundations of the "Big Three" of the 2024 Spring Festival in the pre-sale stage. However, reviewing the trend of the Spring Festival stalls in the past year or two, we will find that there are still more variables than controllable factors.
For example, in 2023, "Man Jianghong" will lead "The Wandering Earth 2" with a box office gap of 500 million and become the box office champion of the Spring Festival. Before the start of the schedule, not only was the outside world more conservative about the box office of "Man Jianghong", but even the pre-screening of director Zhang Yimou was 2 billion box office. However, with the blessing of national feelings and famous scenes such as "the whole army recites Man Jianghong", "Man Jianghong" attracted a more generalized movie-going group with a national-level "breaking point", breaking the box office ceiling of suspense themes.
This is also the reason why the box office trend of this year's Spring Festival stalls is difficult to ** before the start of the schedule. Heavy industry blockbusters such as "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake" and "The Wandering Earth 2" with the foundation of their predecessors have relatively stable box office volume, but the upper and lower limits of comedy dramas are difficult to estimate.
Among the "Big Three" with a leading edge at present, the outside world is more worried about "Hot and Hot". First, Jia Ling's first film "Hello, Li Huanying" is adapted from her own experience, but this time "Hot and Hot" is a remake, and whether it can make highlights in localization is very critical and tests the director's level. Both, the film takes "Jia Ling lost 100 pounds" as the biggest promotional selling point, and the marketing effect is indeed outstanding, but this itself has nothing to do with the content, if those viewers who buy tickets in order to see Jia Ling's new image do not evaluate the content as expected, then this marketing method may have a negative impact on the box office.
On the whole, if the word-of-mouth difference between the "Big Three" after the screening is not large, and it is ahead of the second-echelon films, then the box office trend of this year's Spring Festival stalls is likely to deviate little from today's pre-sale pattern, and a number of films of 2 billion and more than 3 billion will be born, just like the pattern of the summer file in 2023, but if the word-of-mouth is unbalanced, the "Big Three" will become "one super", and even the "Big Three" will be overtaken by the second-echelon films, which is possible.
Looking at the film companies competing for the Spring Festival file this year, the main controllers behind the top two echelons are "Flying Life 2" Tingdong Pictures, "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" Huaqiang Fangte, "Hot and Hot" Xinli Media, "Article 20" Light Media, "Mr. Red Carpet" Huanxi Media, and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" Lianrui Pictures. Among them, "Heat Wave" and "Mr. Red Carpet" are more conservative in terms of external cooperation, the former is mainly produced by Tencent companies, such as China Literature Film and Television, Penguin Film and Television, and the latter is mainly produced by Huanxi Media Group.
Among the many main controllers, Lianrui Pictures' "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is similar to the company's previous films such as "Life Events", "My Sister" and "Send You a Little Red Flower", all of which are low-cost reality films. In the past two or three years, Lianrui Pictures has tested the waters in major popular schedules and small schedules such as Qingming file, New Year's Day file, and summer file, but rarely set foot in the Spring Festival file, so it is worth paying attention to whether "Let's Shake the Sun Together" can refresh the box office ceiling of Lianrui's small-cost reality films during the Spring Festival.
In contrast, the external cooperation of the four films "Flying Life 2", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", "Article 20" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is more diverse, and most of them are also old faces of the Spring Festival files in previous years, such as China Film, Bona Films, Hengdian Film and Television, Taopiaopiao, Maoyan, Ali Pictures, etc. However, there is one more special, that is, Ruyi Films, last year, Ruyi Pictures only produced "Exchanging Lives" during the Spring Festival, but this year it appeared behind many films such as "Flying Life 2", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", "Article 20" and so on.
Judging from the composition of the producers behind the major films, this year's summer file is still a normal competition between the leading film companies under the strategy of "balanced investment and multi-party betting". However, the entry of the main control works of Internet film companies into the Spring Festival file, and the entry of new forces that have grown up in recent years, such as Lianrui Pictures and Ruyi Pictures, are actually impacting the original market competition pattern, but it can shake the situation a few points, and it still depends on the final box office.