In 2023, it will be difficult for wine merchants to sell wine, in addition to the adjustment and restructuring of the wine industry, thin profits, unstable prices, and manufacturer games are also important reasons. Wine merchants can only win if they are constantly changing and keeping pace with the times.
Produced by丨Yunjiu headlines.
On January 26, three days before the Chinese New Year's Eve in 2024, Guangzhou wine merchant Li Bin read the company's annual financial report, the sun was shining outside the window, and his heart was gloomy.
The company's annual financial report shows that in 2023, the company will sell more than 5,000 yuan of liquor, deducting the salaries and social security of 10 employees, travel expenses, store rent, shared expenses, taxes, etc., and the company's book loss will be more than 50 yuan. If you include the annual market support that has not yet been paid by the manufacturer, it barely makes ends meet.
In other words, a small company of more than 10 people worked hard for a year, but in the end it didn't make any money.
Li Bin has been selling liquor for 16 years, and in his impression, the sales of liquor have declined since 2020, but in those years, the company can still earn 2%-3% of the net profit, and in 2023, he originally wanted to do a big job, but the business is far worse than before.
To sum up, the main reasons are that the wine market in 2023 will have a profound impact on the wine market in the long run.
Earn a profit of 5 yuan, and the cost will only increase
In 2023, the characteristics of the liquor market will become more prominent. In other words, consumers are more concentrated and focused on buying liquor, and the market often only has 20-30 liquors that can be naturally circulated and sold, subdivided into strong fragrance, sauce fragrance, and light fragrance, and often the head brands can achieve good sales.
The brand is highly concentrated, the competition is fierce, the liquor merchants ship at a low profit, and the dealers intuitively feel that the liquor is "easy to sell is not profitable, and it is not easy to sell if it makes money". In Guangzhou, famous liquors such as Feitian Moutai, Eight Generations Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 are transparent, and it is normal for a bottle of 1,000 yuan liquor to earn a profit of 20 yuan.
Li Bin does not have the best national famous wine, he operates a second-line soy sauce wine and strong fragrance light bottle wine, and takes goods from the national general agent to supply many famous tobacco hotels in Guangzhou, with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle of wine.
Even if only 5 yuan is added to the profit, there is a risk in the market. In November last year, the wine market entered a small off-season, in order to give cash and give back to old customers, Li Bin sold 50 boxes of goods at a low price of 10 yuan per bottle below the reserve price, and lost 3,000 yuan.
Why do you want to sell wine at a loss, aren't you afraid of losing money? Li Bin explained that the book is indeed a loss, but only by completing the manufacturer's tasks can the rebate be obtained, and at the same time, the company's daily operating expenses are also solved.
In contrast to the low profits, the wages and rents of employees have only increased.
Li Bin said that according to a business manager's guaranteed salary of 5,000 yuan per month plus social security, he can only save his capital by selling 200 cases of wine every month, which is not easy. Labor and rent are the biggest loss-making expenses for wine merchants, and in 2023, "raising people" will not be easy for small and medium-sized wine merchants.
In the past, small and medium-sized wine merchants could make money from it, but with the increasingly fierce competition in the market, this model is becoming more and more difficult.
Therefore, if wine merchants want to break through, they still need to work their product portfolio, build traffic products, profit products, and image products, and consider the contracting system in vehicle fuel and other expenses, which are linked to the interests of employees and save costs.
The price is unstable, and it is difficult to sell goods
Selling liquor in 2023, in addition to the profit "as thin as a blade", Li Bin's biggest headache is that the price of liquor is unstable, and there will always be endless low-priced goods in the market.
Taking Li Bin**'s strong fragrance light bottle wine as an example, after years of cultivation, it has become a semi-circulating product in Guangzhou, and the market sales are good, which is also the main reason why it has been operating.
According to him, although the product can be sold now, but in the past few years, there was too much inventory leading to upside down, a bottle of retail 38 yuan of light bottle wine, at most more than 10 yuan upside down, down nearly 30%.
The problem encountered by Li Bin is largely due to the fact that manufacturers continue to increase their "release policies" in order to ship.
Taking the above-mentioned bare bottle wine as an example, the previous manager of the manufacturer left after pressing the goods, and the new leader faced double-digit performance growth after coming, he would come up with a greater policy to find a big merchant to take over, once the big merchant could not sell, he would naturally sell the goods at a lower price, and the wine merchant who purchased the goods in the early stage would lose at least 20%", Li Bin said.
Some e-commerce platforms continue to have chaotic prices, which also makes Li Bin miserable.
Li Bin said that well-known wine companies have strict requirements for wine merchants to sell wine online, and they must be authorized by manufacturers, but the threshold of some e-commerce platforms is very low, and the policy and market support of wine merchants in various places are different, and there is room for arbitrage. Some wine merchants are under great financial pressure, and they are powerless to sell goods at low prices in order to cash out; There are also dealers who sell goods, which leads to the fact that even if the manufacturer's main sales brand, if the price is unstable, it is difficult to hold up.
Taking Li Bin's company's main soy sauce wine as an example, each bottle is usually about 100 yuan upside down, and it reaches 120 yuan at the most serious time.
Li Bin said that manufacturers all know that "the goods are as fierce as a tiger", the inventory is too large, the slow sales are the root causes, the price is not stable is just a performance, if the above problems are not solved, wine merchants have always lacked a sense of security.
The way to solve it: the market price is unstable and upside down, the fundamental reason is that the dynamic sales are slow and the inventory is too large. Wine merchants should not be greedy for cheap goods, but must have cash in hand; If you encounter goods channeling, you should report to the manufacturer in time, and strive to find the source to solve the problem.
Manufacturers game, the routine is deep
After selling wine for 16 years, Li Bin realized that in recent years, the market support promised by manufacturers has become more and more difficult to get.
According to the industry rules, after the manufacturer signs the annual task, the dealer has a certain proportion of support rewards as long as the task is completed, which is basically to "replenish" the product, while some manufacturers design it as a "chain set", which can not be seen.
For example, the contract stipulates that the winery will give the merchant 1 million support, and the wine merchant must not only complete the task, but also make another payment to trigger it, similar to the meal coupon consumption of 100 yuan discount of 20 yuan, which can only be used next time. As a result, if the wine merchant wants to use up the 1 million, he must continue to make payments, and there is always a sum of money pressed on the manufacturer's account. In addition, the winery will also temporarily release the policy in order to increase sales, and the wine merchants will not be able to get it if they don't pay, which is not competitive," Li Bin said.
In terms of policy consistency, individual manufacturers also make frequent adjustments.
In 2023, a liquor of Li Bin** will launch a "two-way red envelope" to stimulate sales, Li Bin didn't want to buy it, and the business manager told him that the manufacturer was very determined to launch a year-round red envelope to win the lottery, and the winning surface reached 99%. In order to fight for the red envelope, Li Bin purchased and sold, but only 3 months later, the manufacturer canceled the event due to poor results, and Li Bin did not earn much in the red envelope, and finally became a "pick-up man".
The above experience makes Li Bin feel that in 2023, the market will be involuted, and the routines of individual manufacturers will increase, and dealers will be easy to be cut "leeks" if they are not careful.
The solution: Vendor gambling is an old topic, especially in times of squeezed market growth. In the face of this situation, wine merchants should consider cooperating with big brands, whose integrity and market protection are relatively good; Manufacturers must cooperate according to a written contract, and the individual's oral commitment is invalid, so that they can protect their own rights and interests to the greatest extent.
2023 is an "extraordinary" year for the wine industry, and many wine merchants have increased their investment to prepare for a big job, but they have encountered declining profits, unstable prices, and market contradictions, and Li Bin's experience is just one of the epitomes.
How to break the game? Yang Yonghua, senior researcher of Yunjiu China Liquor Brand Research Institute and chief strategic expert of Guanfeng Consulting, believes that in 2023, the wine industry will be polarized, with obvious squeezing growth, and resources will be concentrated in famous wines and large merchants.
Therefore, small and medium-sized wine merchants should first ensure the safety of funds and inventory, cultivate internal skills, and prevent the occurrence of the phenomenon of "running and dripping" due to poor internal management; Secondly, the company should set reasonable revenue and profit growth targets, and do not blindly invest in new brands.
According to Wang Weishe, senior researcher of Yunjiu China Liquor Brand Research Institute and founder of Unique Consulting, in 2023, the recovery of the liquor market, the adjustment of the liquor industry, the upgrading of the structure, and the gradual advancement of inventory digestion will lead to more prominent contradictions, and the ability of small and medium-sized liquor merchants to resist risks will be weak.
Therefore, small and medium-sized wine merchants should take the lead in stabilizing the word, first keeping the basic plate and then making increments. At the same time, it is necessary to actively seek changes, in business models, online and offline integration, new retail and other aspects.
Li Bin also further said that after 16 years of selling wine, after many adjustments in the industry, he has survived, and it is really not okay to remain unchanged this time. It is ready to contact Meituan, Douyin and other platforms to try to start an instant retail business.
From this point of view, even if the wine industry is adjusted and restructured, as long as the wine merchants are stable and have the courage to change, they can also go through the cycle.