Zebra consumption Shen Tuo.
Jiangxi Pig King "*ST Zhengbang turned the crisis into safety through reorganization, but Aonong Biotech stepped into the same river with one foot, and now its fate hangs by a thread.
4 years ago, the life of the bosses of these two pig enterprises was so enviable - *ST Zhengbang's Lin Yinsun became the richest man in Jiangxi; Aonong Biotech, controlled by Wu Youlin, is a dark horse in the industry.
These two Jiangxi "pig bosses" have the same "wild" style, and they continue to increase leverage to support the scale. When the Super Pig cycle comes, a crisis ensues. At the most difficult time, Zhengbang's pigs were starved to death, and the sows with cubs in Aonong were also quietly sold.
Pig farming is bound to be a high-risk business. The "script" of the cycle is almost the same, theoretically, making a year, a flat year, and losing a year, in fact, there are very few pig companies that can be so lucky.
In this round of the super pig cycle, the internal and external environment faced by pig enterprises is becoming more and more complex. How to make money in the first two years, how to spit it out in the past two years. Even the "King of Pigs" Muyuan shares can't stand it, and it will usher in the first loss since its listing in 2023.
Now, listed pig companies are trying to survive this winter, but no one knows how long the winter will last and how long they can last.
Hell of a dilemma
On the edge of the precipice of delisting, the twin group will be *ST Zhengbang (002157SZ) pulled back, and the company successfully turned losses into profits in 2023, but it still lost 5 billion yuan to 7 billion yuan after deducting non-net profit. This means that after the implementation of the reorganization plan, the company's main pig business will return to the right track, and it will take time and multiple tests of the market.
From the perspective of the whole industry, the average loss of domestic pig breeding per head last year was 76 yuan. The general trend of the industry is like this, and no one has a hard time.
Even Muyuan shares, which have always maintained a non-loss body, will not be able to withstand it in 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -3.9 billion yuan to -4.7 billion yuan, which is the first loss since the company's listing.
Even the "pig king", which is known for controlling costs, is still like this, and other pig companies can be imagined.
Wen's shares (300498., which are the best investments in the pig industrySZ), which is expected to have a net profit loss of 6 billion yuan to 6.5 billion yuan last year; Dabeinong has a pre-loss of 1.8 billion yuan to 2.2 billion yuan; Aonong Biotech lost 3 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan. With a loss of more than 1 billion, there are also Tang Renshen, Tiankang, Tianbang and New Wufeng.
Of course, there is new hope in the pig enterprise (000876SZ) this alternative. Its profit in 2023 is expected to be 300 million yuan, but this mainly comes from the introduction of strategic investment in the white feather meat and poultry and food deep processing business, which will affect the net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.1 billion yuan to 5.2 billion yuan. With this, the company finally avoided the embarrassing situation of losing money for 3 consecutive years. But for the general trend of the industry, Liu Chang, who has been in charge of the company for 10 years, knows that this is an "unprecedented difficult environment".
Under the general loss, the debt level of the pig breeding industry is high. According to the Southwest ** Research Report, the overall debt ratio of the industry has increased from 53 at the beginning of 20215% increased to 68 in the third quarter of last year3%。Aonong Biotech (603363.)SH), Tianbang Food, *ST Zhengbang, is even more amazing. 03% and 16261%。
At the same time, the cash flow of enterprises is being put to the test. At the end of 2023, Aonong Biotech, Muyuan Co., Ltd., New Hope and others have successively disclosed financing information, and plan to raise 1.8 billion yuan, 8 billion yuan and 73 billion yuan respectively500 million yuan, mainly used to repay loans, replenish liquidity, etc.
The hardest pig cycle
This round of pig cycle, which began in the second half of 2019, has not yet ended, and it is the longest and most cruel in the history of domestic pig breeding.
Pig prices, feed ** and market demand together constitute the three major factors affecting pig enterprises.
The feed is high, compressing the profit margins of pig enterprises; If the market demand is less, it will also affect the slaughter**. Pig enterprises are in a dilemma, only to improve breeding technology, strict control of costs in order to grasp the initiative.
According to the research report of Hua'an** and Guojin**, in 2023, Muyuan shares (002714SZ) average annual complete breeding cost of 15 yuan kg, its annual average sales price of commercial pigs is 1482 yuan kg, more than you can make ends meet.
Pigs are not good, but feed continues to rise and is difficult to suppress. The average price of feed for domestic fattening pigs increased from 3 in 201903 yuan kg rose to 39 yuan kg. Pig enterprises and pig farmers are complaining. According to public data, last year, the highest monthly loss of free-range pigs was 420 yuan, and the highest monthly loss of large-scale pigs was 243 yuan.
The main reason for the decline in pig prices is the first volume. Last year, 7 pigs were slaughtered in China2.7 billion heads, a year-on-year increase of 38%, a new high since 2016; The annual pork output was 57.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46%, the highest level since 2015.
The supply of pork is increasing, but the end consumption is decreasing. According to the China Business Industry Research Institute, it is estimated that the per capita pork consumption of Chinese households in 2023 will be 277 kg, an increase of about 2 over the previous year97%, well below the previous year's 675% growth.
Per capita pork consumption is also visibly decreasing. In 2014, the annual per capita pork consumption in China was 368 kg, which has dropped to 23 last year5 kg. Affected by the diversification of meat products such as aquatic products and poultry, the proportion of pork in residents' meat consumption increased from 63 to 63 in the same period3% to 491%。
In addition, changes in the catering market also affect pork consumption. According to public data, the number of cancellations and revocations of domestic catering enterprises in 2023 will exceed 12650,000, more than double the previous year.
When to turn over?
Before the Spring Festival, my cousin, who raised pigs in his hometown, slaughtered 200 pigs and lost more than 100,000 yuan. Even so, he is still very concerned, can he enter a batch of piglets to fill the pen at the beginning of the year?
Last year's crazy cycle inflection point did not appear, this year's pig price will not be **, in many brokerage research reports, almost unanimously and cautiously ** is expected to "trend upward".
Whether pig prices can go up the channel is closely related to production capacity. According to public data, at the end of 2023, the national breeding sow herd will be 41.42 million, a decrease of 57%。According to the number of breeding sows to the supply of commercial pigs, the general cycle is 9 to 10 months, ** at least in the first half of this year, the price of pigs will not change much.
Max Research Report, under the situation of overcapacity of pigs, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about ***.
Large-scale breeding, to a certain extent, allows listed pig enterprises to have the ability to hedge risks, but the debt risk brought about by the expansion of production capacity has also made the lives of some enterprises hang by a thread.
Since January this year, Aonong Biotech has disclosed debt overdue information 5 times. As of February 17, the company has accumulated a total of about 17 overdue debt principal and interest in banks, financial leasing companies and other financial institutions1.7 billion yuan, accounting for 68 percent of its latest audited net assets59%。
As of the end of the third quarter of last year, the company's total liabilities were 1478.9 billion yuan, with an asset-liability ratio of 8941%。Although the self-rescue action was very positive, the results were mediocre.
Wu Youlin, the actual controller of the company, did not want to see the company become the second Zhengbang, and decided to sell the company to Dabeinong (002385.) in December last yearSZ), after all, he was the head of the Fujian region of Dabeinong. Unexpectedly, half a month later, this industry-eyed drama of A eating A was unexpectedly terminated.
The reason for the change, in addition to the large changes such as the equity freeze of Aonong Biology, in the downward cycle of the industry, Dabeinong itself also has certain financial pressure.
As of February 19, the total number of shares of Aonong Biotechnology held by Wu Youlin and his concerted actor Aonong Investment was 35.6 billion shares, accounting for 90 percent of the total number of shares29%。
At the beginning of February, the creditor Dazhou Group has applied to the court for a pre-reorganization of Aonong Biotech, and has been approved by the Zhangzhou Intermediate People's Court.
Once the reorganization procedure is entered, Wu Youlin's control over the listed company will face great uncertainty.
In the early years, Aonong Bio made a fortune through feed like *ST Zhengbang, and later intervened in pig breeding and became a dark horse in the industry, and now it has been losing money for 3 consecutive years and has reached the darkest moment.