Recently, a succession of merchant ships have been attacked in the Red Sea region, and the Red Sea has become a new "focus", the global chain is stable, and the world has also encountered an unprecedented crisis.
The latest situation on the Red Sea route
On December 31, 2023, the U.S.-led Operation "Prosperity Guardian" clashed with the Houthis while escorting the container ship "Maersk Hangzhou" through the Red Sea region. The exchange of fire killed 10 Houthi fighters, and it was also the first time since the outbreak of the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict that the US military directly hunted and killed Houthi fighters.
After the "Maersk Hangzhou" incident, Maersk once again suspended the Red Sea voyage, and the previous plan to resume the Red Sea came to an end. On the evening of January 5, Maersk announced that in the foreseeable future,All of the company's ships will no longer pass through the Red Sea, and all Maersk ships that will transit through the Gulf of Aden in the Red Sea will detour south of the Cape of Good Hopeand warn customers to prepare for a severe** disruption.
On January 7, the Houthis issued a statement on social media ** that only ships that could pass through the Red Sea were requiredThe statement "has nothing to do with Israel" will not be attacked。But if a shipping company makes a false declaration and goes to the relevant Israeli port, it will be put on a "blacklist" and detained the next time it tries to cross the Red Sea.
The current attitude of the shipping company is somewhat vague, after all, it was also said before the attack was launched in the first place. In such a situation, it is still the mainstream trend for shipping companies to choose to detour the Cape of Good Hope.
In the 10 days to Jan. 2, traffic through the Suez Canal increased by 28 percent, while traffic at the Cape of Good Hope increased by a whopping 67 percent, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Organization's Portwatch platform. According to the data of the shipview, there were 20 large container ships that resumed sailing in the Red Sea on January 9, of whichOnly 2 have declared that they have nothing to do with Israel
Source: Boat VisionWhat are the effects of circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope?
The voyage time becomes longer
One of the most immediate effects of circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope is that the voyage time has become longer. According to Flexport data, a detour to the Cape of Good Hope may be more likely than using the Suez CanalSpend 25% more time。Freight costs for shipping lines are expected to soar by 15 to 20 percent after the rerouting.
There is a shortage of capacity and a slowdown in container turnover
There have been 2-3 weeks of delays due to a large number of container ship detours, and there may be a shortage of capacity in the coming weeks. Flexport also said that the Red Sea crisis has triggered a series of chain reactions, which could lead to container shortages and port congestion. The shortage of empty containers could spread to Asian ports as soon as mid-to-late JanuaryContainers exported before the Asian Spring Festival face the challenge of imbalance between supply and demand.
Shipping Straight**
The Red Sea incident triggered a "retaliatory price increase" on all routes, and shipping companies became the main "beneficiaries" of them. Since the Houthis began their armed strikes in the Red Sea in mid-November last year, the share prices of ZIM, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have accumulated separately**Approx. %.
Shipping companies have introduced a variety of new charging names, including but not limited to Red Sea surcharges, contingency adjustment fees, peak season surcharges, transportation interruption surcharges, and destination congestion surcharges. According to the data of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of January 8, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European Route) reported 209860 points, compared to the previous periodup 709%
Not only has the freight rate of the European line been raised, but the freight rate of other routes has also been increased due to risk spillover**. According to the latest data from the Baltic shipping consulting agency on January 5, a 40-foot TEU from China to the east coast of North America**092% at $3,980；One 40ft TEU from China to the West Coast of North America**087% at $2,713
Figure: China-North America East Coast
Figure: China-West Coast of North AmericaWhat is the current situation after the ship detoured the Red Sea?
Based on geopolitical collisions and international political risk games, bypassing the Red Sea has become a helpless choice. We also mentioned in the previous tweet that at present, the UK-Europe route has different ship names and voyages are affected and forced to detour.
So what is the current state of the ship in which our cargo is located?
18 The first ship on the British-European line affected by the situation in the Red Sea:
cosco shipping nebula 024w / ever alot 1273-006w
Departure time of Yantian: December 11th and 12th.
Original arrival time: January 3 and 4.
Estimated arrival time around the Cape of Good Hope: January 13.
Photo: Cosco Shipping Nebula 024W
Picture: Ever Alot 1273-006W In other words, the vessels that are currently affected by our detour are currently safe and normal except for the delay in the estimated arrival time. We will also pay close attention to the dynamics of the detouring vessels in the future, and will arrange pick-up, unpacking and delivery of the goods as soon as they arrive at the port.
Although we cannot reverse the market environment, 18 will integrate and mobilize multiple resources within a controllable range to ensure service quality and cargo safety. Up to now, the impact of the Red Sea situation has lasted longer than the grounding of the Ever Given in 2021, and the freight rate**, shipping schedule delays, and booking difficulties in the short term are recommended to be the seller's delivery plan in advance and continue to keep the latest Red Sea situation information.
The United States announced the formation of an alliance in the Red Sea to carry out escorts
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Editor of this article: Overseas Brand Department.