In the nineteenth century, when human beings opened up the cognition of molecules and atoms, the most famous British philosopher Spencer pointed out: the material world is ultimately unknowable! He said: When people open a box of substance, they find that there is an unknown small box inside the box, and when they open it again, they find that there is an even smaller box inside! There's always a box that's too small to open! After him, at the beginning of the twentieth century, humans opened up the atom and pioneered quantum mechanics. Electrons, protons, and neutrons were discovered one after another. Later, scientists discovered that proton neutrons are made up of quarks. It has been more than half a century since the discovery of quarks, and human beings have stagnated at the level of quarks!
Mises, the great economist of the Austrian school at the beginning of the twentieth century, believed that it is impossible for mankind to know all about the operation of a complex system! His pupil Hayek inherited and developed his views.
Weather forecasting is a good example of this, for a complex multi-factor system like a weather system, the more accurate the weather forecast is the farther away, and the more inaccurate the forecast is for the last few days. And the weather forecast in a hundred years will not be more accurate than it is today!
The economy is a very complex system, and only God can grasp it accurately. ** is a part of the economy, and it is impossible to thoroughly grasp it, otherwise the planned economy will be sufficient! Those who claim to have grasped the big and small bands are either stupid! Because there are too many factors that affect the economy and the most important factors, it is impossible to accurately grasp them. The economy and ** have a certain cyclicality, and it is possible to grasp this cycle, but as for those small fluctuations, it is impossible for people to really grasp them. This cycle itself manifests itself as imprecise! The precision that some claim is a mismatch of ideas! Insanity! The peak of technology stocks in the United States in 2001 was precisely the best time to invest in traditional stocks. The complexity of this economic activity is and cannot be reached.
Before the reform and opening up, our country implemented a planned economy, and according to Marx's theory, there should be no economic cycles and economic crises. In fact, this is not the case! The Great Leap Forward in 1958 directly led to a major economic imbalance. In the sixties of the last century, ** wrote "On the Ten Major Relationships", and no longer ventured, and in 1968 and 1969, there were still serious economic difficulties! As a result, a vigorous movement of intellectual youth to go to the mountains and countryside was launched, allowing the vast rural areas to bear the country's economic difficulties. In the seventies of the last century, Sino-US relations were reconciled, and China imported industrial technology from the United States. China's economy was on the verge of collapse from 1978 to 1980. Humans cannot fully comprehend the complexity of economic activity. China's move toward a market economy is a historical choice.
Although we are a market economy, we can only be a leading market economy. ** Dominance will lead to aggressiveness. Especially after three years of the epidemic, the economy has been hovering at a low point. The mood of the leading people at all levels to engage in the economy is urgent.
Our economy will certainly make great progress, and then there will be major problems in China's economy every 8 and 9.