In the beginning, in order to control the population, we encouraged a couple to have only one child in 1979, and by 1982, the domestic population exceeded the 100,000 mark, and the family planning policy was set as a basic national policy.
The effect of the policy is undoubted, not only affecting that generation, but even making the concept of "late marriage and late childbearing, fewer births and better births" deeply rooted in the bones of the post-90s, but even so, the number of newborns at that time was quite high, for example, the number of newborns in 1987 was 252910,000, compared to 21.19 million in 1992.
However, with the passage of time, the marriage rate and birth rate in our country began to decline year by year, and it was out of control. China's rapid economic development, one depends on the policy, the other depends on the huge population base, so once the population has problems, it will inevitably affect economic development, and may also cause social problems such as increased pension pressure.
In response to the challenge, we adjusted our fertility policy in mid-November 2013 to implement a single two-child policy, which means that couples with one parent can have two children. Then, at the end of October 2015, the policy was adjusted again and it was decided to implement a comprehensive two-child policy.
It stands to reason that the interval between the two policy adjustments is not long, and it should have a good effect, but the real situation is surprising.
In 2016, the number of births was 188320,000 people, an increase of 228 compared to 201520,000 people, which shows that the release of the second child is effective in the short term, starting from 2017, the number of births has entered a continuous channel, and by 2023, the number of births will only be 9.02 million, a decrease of more than 52% compared with 2016.
During this period, we released the third child and implemented relevant supporting measures, but the policy did not achieve the expected effect, not only that, but the population also showed negative growth for two consecutive years. This situation sounded the alarm!
It is not difficult to find that now the country is encouraging childbearing, and it is more childbearing, and the parents of the post-90s and even post-00s are also urging marriage and children in fancy ways, but these two generations seem to have become "rebels", that is, they have to do it, that is, they don't get married and don't have children. There are three main reasons for this phenomenon.
First, economic pressures.
The first is housing. Now housing prices are at a high level, although the favorable policies for buying a house continue, but the pressure to buy a house still exists, for the vast majority of young people, it is not realistic to buy a house by themselves, and finally they still have to be funded by their parents, and they have to bear a mortgage for twenty or thirty years.
The second is nurturing. For example, the Yuwa think tank has released a report on the cost of childbirth in China, which pointed out that the average cost of raising a child in Chinese families until the age of 18 is 4850,000, by region, Shanghai is the highest, with an average cost of more than 1 million, and the lowest is **, but there are also nearly 300,000 yuan. In addition, there is another point that cannot be ignored, that is, when children start a family, parents also have to contribute.
Housing and parenting are two big mountains, coupled with the economic burden of bride price, daily expenses and other financial burdens, how can young people's planning for marriage and childbirth not be affected?
Second, work and time are not allowed.
Let's talk about women's pregnancy first, to be honest, many companies have a certain prejudice against women's pregnancy, from the perspective of the enterprise, this bias is normal, but from the perspective of women, they have to re-examine themselves and consider whether to enter the next stage of life.
In addition, the post-90s and post-00s are known as "workplace rectifications" on the Internet, but in reality, there are very few people who can really rectify the workplace, and most young people are working overtime, especially in the Internet industry.
Take a friend as an example, in 2019, when I was still a small programmer, I went to the Guangzhou headquarters on a business trip, and worked until 12 o'clock or even 1 a.m. every night.
Let's talk about another friend, who is engaged in the e-commerce industry, doing a better job, and the scale is also very large, the customer service under his command works in two shifts, there are night shifts and day shifts, and there are anchors who live broadcast all night, and even art design has to work overtime until midnight.
To sum up, high-intensity work constantly squeezes young people's time, and the result is that there is no time to have children.
Third, there has been a shift in the way we think about it.
A few days ago, I saw a **, the blogger interviewed the middle-aged and elderly, and asked them what they think about marriage and childbirth, many people generally believe that inheritance is a must be done, even if life is difficult, we must face the difficulties, and the big deal is that the two of them work hard together.
But if you ask young people the same question, their answer is not like this, whether it is to pass on the family lineage or to endure hardships together, it is not as important as working hard to make money and live comfortably.
Of course, compared with the first two reasons, the change in ideology is secondary, or in other words, it is precisely because of the first two points that the ideological concept of young people has changed.
All in all, in most cases, it is not that I don't want to get married and have children, but in the face of many pressures, the right to marry and have children no longer belongs to me.
A few days ago, population economist Liang Jianzhang published an article titled "Is the Serious Birthrate Decline a Family Affair or a State Affair?" The article put forward suggestions for solving the problem of childbirth, which can be summed up in two words, give money.
Specifically, it is hoped that the country will take out 4% of GDP, that is, 5 trillion yuan to provide maternity benefits, and reduce various pressures through cash subsidies, individual income tax and social security exemptions, housing subsidies, equal maternity leave for men and women, flexible office, etc., and finally after calculation, two-child families can receive a total of more than 1 million maternity benefits.
Liang Jianzhang's "new plan" has reached everyone's heart, so it has been supported by a large number of netizens, but some people believe that although the plan is good, it is too dreamy to be realized.
Yao Yang, director of the China Economic Research Center, said that the reward of 1 million yuan for having an extra child is "why not eat minced meat", and the person who said this may not know that we have 600 million people with a monthly income of less than 1,000 yuan, and we do not have the financial resources to do this.
So what are your thoughts on this?