Time is fleeting, the Spring Festival holiday has entered the countdown, and the A-share market will open again next Monday.
According to the previous Spring Festival after the first year, the probability of a good start for A-shares after the holiday is as high as 60%, as an example of the previous four years, after the Spring Festival in 2020, the first year will rise by 014%, how much should it rise in 2024?
If you really want to know whether A-shares can usher in a good start this year, you must analyze it in combination with many aspects, such as holiday news, the position of A-shares themselves, and the trend of the periphery.
Accurately look at whether A-shares can usher in a good start after the holiday, and at the same time analyze the three major effects, only in this way can we have a deeper understanding of the inside story of **.
(1) Valuation effect
At present, the A** market is still in a serious bottom state, according to the pre-holiday valuation data, the average price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 1559 times, the average price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai stock market is 1079 times, ** average P/E ratio of 1628 times.
The valuation reflects the investment value of **, and judging from the current valuation of the A** field, the valuation has been at the valuation of 2005, which does have investment value, which is enough to prove that there is enough confidence and determination in the future of A-shares.
(2) Reversal effect
* Ups and downs are natural laws, and there will inevitably be more ups and downs, and more falls will rise, which is a fact that cannot be changed; Therefore, the reversal effect is established after the previous period has been killed, and there will be a reversal signal when the fall does not move.
For example, before the Spring Festival, it fell first and then strong**, because the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6 in January27%, SZSE fell 1377%, and the GEM fell by 16 in January81%；Before the holiday, it rose by more than 200 points in one go; A reversal signal has been issued before the holiday, indicating that the bulls are very strong, and the reversal news will continue, paving the way for a good start to A-shares after the holiday.
(3) Growth effect
It is a barometer of the economy, and as long as the economy maintains stable growth, it will not be too bad; The economy maintains steady growth, the performance of listed companies grows steadily, and the listed companies have money in their pockets, so that the company can grow, and the amount and frequency of the company's dividends can be increased, which is the dividend brought by the growth effect.
From the perspective of domestic economic data, the elasticity of the economic rebound after the year is strong, as long as the slope of economic growth is higher, it proves that A-shares will rise higher; Especially for small and medium-sized listed companies, as long as these companies recover economically, it is the most beneficial to the future of A-shares.
To sum up, judging from the historical trend of A-shares after the Spring Festival, as well as the combination of the three major effects, the probability of a good start for A-shares after the holiday is indeed very high; Therefore, don't be pessimistic about the trend of A-shares after the holiday, the good start has basically been finalized, wait and see.