The market has been shrouded in fog recently. From the US EIA report to the Fed's policy moves, from Saudi Arabia's production adjustment to Israel's conflict with Hamas, every piece of news could be a bellwether for the market. However, in this fog, we still need a pair of keen eyes to see the direction clearly.
Overnight oil prices** are at odds with the senses brought by macro data. EIA data shows that U.S.** production has basically recovered, while refineries are less willing to resume work, causing gasoline inventories to hit a new high, highlighting weak demand. This news has undoubtedly put pressure on ***. At the same time, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a low probability of a rate cut in March, which weighed on risk assets and further hit oil prices.
However, there is no shortage of good news in the market. OPEC is likely to raise its flagship export to Asia in March**, which could provide some support for oil prices. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its **, indicating that economic growth is expected to be stronger, especially in the United States and China. These positive factors are likely to have a positive impact on demand.
However, the fundamentals of supply and demand in the market are relatively stable, the supply side is tight as the lower support point, and the short-term adjustment of the demand side in winter is the main logic. Nevertheless, we need to continue to monitor the development of the global geopolitical situation and the potential pressure at the macro level, and be alert to the risk of large market volatility.
At the same time, Yemen's Houthi rebels said they would continue to attack U.S. and British ships in the Red Sea, raising fears of a long-term global disruption. This may have an impact on *** and, in turn, on oil prices.
Let's look at the technical side, this morning to see that this support position is more biased**, let everyone first put the short order out, originally wanted to wait for a bounce to the top to add back, ** came back to test the support below, and the bulls are very weak. Then we're going to change our expectations a little bit. In the future, once the ** falls below the support, we will wait for an opportunity on the right side, and wait for the ** to enter the market directly to go short. The location has been marked for everyone on the map. What we need to watch today is whether we can successfully break down. On the contrary, if it is supported, then we still maintain the high-altitude thinking, and there is no need to do ** in this position. Personal advice, for reference only. over