Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's wartime cabinet and former defense minister, threatened on February 18 that the Israeli army would launch a ground military operation against the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah if the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) did not release all Israeli detainees by the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which is expected to begin on March 10.
Despite the EU-26 warning on February 19 against attacking Rafah so as not to exacerbate the already serious humanitarian catastrophe there, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on February 20 that Israel is determined to achieve all the objectives of the current operation in the Gaza Strip, including a complete victory over Hamas, and no amount of pressure can change that desire. On the same day, the United States once again exclusively vetoed a draft resolution drafted by Algeria calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip at the UN Security Council, triggering strong dissatisfaction and anger from the international community.
Israel called the battle of Rafah "inevitable".
Since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October 2023, Israel has launched a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip from north to south, and the fighting is currently "burning" to the southernmost city of Rafah. The people of Gaza are likely to lose their "last safe city".
In the early hours of 12 February, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched ground troops and fighter jets to storm Rafah, killing more than 100 people. After that, according to the Associated Press, Israeli forces launched air strikes on Rafah almost every day. Reuters quoted Israeli sources on February 19 as saying that Israel plans to launch a ground offensive against Rafah, and a full-scale military operation in Gaza is expected to last another 6-8 weeks.
Rafah, which borders Egypt and was once considered the "last relatively safe place" for Gaza's people, was called on Israel to evacuate residents from the northern part of the Gaza Strip to the south at the beginning of the current round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Rafah is also the main point of entry for international humanitarian assistance, with almost no access to food, water and medicine for refugees in the area. But now, the Israeli side has taken a very tough stance on attacking Rafah. The Israeli army claims that there are four battalions of Hamas in the city of Rafah. The Israeli side believes that without eliminating these four battalions, it will be impossible to achieve the three major war goals set out by Netanyahu, namely: eliminating Hamas, rescuing all detainees, and ensuring that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a security threat to Israel. Israel's Jerusalem Post reported on 17 February, citing Israeli military sources, that the battle of Rafah was "inevitable" and that "the war cannot end without attacking Rafah."
Kirby Michael, a senior researcher at the Israel Research Institute, further analyzed that Israel also intends to use the battle of Rafah to control the "Philadelphia corridor" leading south from Rafah to Egypt, so as to prevent smuggling into Gaza and prevent senior Hamas leaders from entering Egypt. According to the data, the 14-kilometer-long "Philadelphia Corridor" was designated as an Israeli-controlled military buffer zone under the 1979 peace agreement between Egypt and Israel, but Hamas also took control of the Philadelphia Corridor after it took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007.
As of now, Israel has not made public a specific timetable for the ground battle in Rafah. In response to Gantz's "ultimatum" to Hamas on February 18, some analysts said that, on the one hand, Israel set the deadline at Ramadan, which is of great significance to Muslims, in retaliation for Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7 last year, the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War; On the other hand, Israel has chosen to set aside a certain amount of time to facilitate preparations for war, and it also intends to take the initiative in negotiations with Hamas over the exchange of detainees by taking advantage of military toughness.
The United States has pushed the situation in Gaza to an even more dangerous level
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip is worsening at an unprecedented rate. Qatar's Al Jazeera reported that before the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Rafah, which covers an area of only 64 square kilometers, accommodated 2750,000 people, but there are currently 1.4 million refugees here. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, said that if the Israeli army continues to carry out military strikes against Rafah, then a large number of Palestinians will pour into Egypt from Rafah, which will be a disaster for the Palestinians, Egypt and the prospects for peace in the Middle East.
In this regard, Netanyahu's solution is that the Israeli army has cleared the northern area of Rafah in advance, and will provide "safe passage" to the people of Rafah and guide the people to temporarily evacuate to the northern region through "leaflets, mobile phone messages" and other means.
However, according to the US "Wall Street**" on February 20**, the Israeli army is building a road through central Gaza to prevent Gazans who fled to the south from returning to the north, so as to maintain control of the Gaza Strip after the conflict with Hamas ends.
In addition, due to the continued Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip, the Gaza health department said on February 18 that the Nasser Hospital, the largest hospital previously in operation in southern Gaza, had been "completely out of service." The World Food Programme (WFP) said in a statement on February 20 that it had suspended aid deliveries to the northern Gaza Strip. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) medical staff admits that "there is no choice but to let the most seriously injured die." ”
With the increasing international pressure on Israel, the United States' previous consistent stance of "supporting Israel" seems to have loosened. On February 15, Biden said in a communication with Netanyahu that Israel should not move forward with military operations in Rafah until a credible and enforceable plan is developed to ensure the safety and support needed for civilians in Rafah. On the same day, the U.S. "Wall Street**" revealed that the United States is considering imposing sanctions on Israeli Finance Minister Bezarel Smotrich and Minister of Finance Itamar Ben-Gvir. On February 20, the United States proposed in a draft resolution submitted to the UN Security Council to "achieve a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible", which was the first time since the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that the United States explicitly supported a ceasefire in Gaza. On the same day, the United States once again exclusively vetoed a draft resolution submitted by Algeria on behalf of the Arab countries calling for an immediate and humane ceasefire in Gaza.
China's spokesperson Mao Ning said on the 21st that the current humanitarian situation in Gaza is extremely serious, and the United States once again exclusively vetoed it, pushing the situation in Gaza to a more dangerous situation, and all relevant parties, including China, have expressed strong disappointment and dissatisfaction with this.
The British "Guardian" also pointed out that the United States' stance of advocating a "temporary ceasefire" in Gaza is intended to leave room for maneuver for the Israeli army. In fact, the United States has not substantively put pressure on Israel, but is still "arching the fire". On February 12, the U.S. Senate passed a bill allocating $14 billion to aid Israel. "Middle East Watch"** also analyzed that the United States' position on the Gaza issue is contradictory, hoping to guarantee Israel's so-called "right to self-defense" and controlling the escalation and spread of the situation. The British Reuters news agency bluntly said that the United States' criticism of Israel is only in words, and it is not conducive to "cooling down" the situation in the Middle East. Biden's main goal is to regain the support of young voters and other anti-war activists who "could play a key role in America** in 2024."
The EU set aside the United States and Britain to independently launch the Red Sea escort
Given the contradictory position of the United States on Gaza, the European Union began to deliberately distance itself from the United States. On 19 February, the EU announced a "new start" for EU fleets to carry out escort operations in the Red Sea.
The European Union Council said in a press release that the escort action plan, which aims to "restore and maintain freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf", will last for one year and can be renewed. The EU fleet is only used to protect civilian ships in the Red Sea region and does not actively attack Houthi positions in Yemen. France, Germany, Italy and Belgium are already planning to send their own countries to participate.
Previously, the United States announced in December 2023 that it would lead the formation of an escort alliance called "Prosperity Guardian", claiming to attack and weaken the Houthis at the source, but only a few countries such as the United Kingdom and Greece publicly responded. At the same time, since January 12 this year, the United States and the United Kingdom have launched several airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, causing many deaths and injuries, which has also triggered further retaliation by the Houthis. The Houthis said in a statement on February 20 that the group had launched attacks on multiple Israeli and U.S. targets in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that day.
The Red Sea is one of the most important sea lanes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe, and most of the EU's top sailors in Asia pass through this sea. Paolo Gentiloni, the European commissioner in charge of the economy, said on February 15 that due to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, shipping through the Red Sea had been rerouted, which had led to an increase of 10 to 15 days in shipping time between Europe and Asia, and transportation costs had soared by about 400%.
In order to reduce transportation costs and avoid getting involved in the conflict with the Houthis, the EU decided to set aside the United States and Britain and launch a separate Red Sea escort. There are multiple considerations behind this: First, if the EU joins forces with the United States and the United Kingdom to fight the Houthis, it means that it is directly on the opposite side of the Houthis, which is contrary to its core desire to de-escalate the situation and calm the conflict. Second, within the European Union, there are growing voices opposing Israel's actions and demanding a ceasefire and an end to the fighting, and demonstrations have occurred one after another. Against the backdrop of populism, the rise of the far right, the EU needs to stabilize internally for the European Parliament elections to be held in June. Third, the EU has made it clear that the formation of an escort fleet "will ensure the presence of the EU Navy in the Red Sea region."
Selin Uysar, a visiting scholar at the Washington Institute of the United States, said in an analysis that the EU independently carried out escort operations in the Red Sea and did not want its naval forces to be controlled by the United States, which reflected the strategic autonomy policy it has always advocated. However, the EU's escort operation called "Shield" is mainly defensive, and its deterrent and practical effect are limited after all. Tensions in the Red Sea region are ultimately to be met with a ceasefire in Gaza.
Contributing writer Li Yang, reporter of China Youth Daily and China Youth Network, Chen Xiaoru).
*: China Youth Daily).