The United States raised interest rates, triggered an economic crisis, and sold all our **? How will China react?
There are so many reports on the Internet about China's financial crisis that people feel like they are reading an interesting article. I saw a lot of such statements more than a decade ago, and in recent years the articles about financial wars have not changed, nothing more than a few sentences.
More than a decade ago, when the U.S. subprime mortgage storm swept the world, the whole world was talking about China's fusion war, but the problem was that the U.S. actually did"Paralysis"The internationally acclaimed investment bank Lehman Brothers is also in trouble, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are also nearly collapsing.
It seems that the level of economic warfare in the United States is really not very good, I don't know if I have been beaten a thousand times, but I have definitely been slapped in the face more than 800 times.
As soon as he took office, Trump launched a real campaign against China"Fighting", which undermined the pricing advantage of Chinese companies by increasing tariffs, followed by a technology war in which Chinese technology companies, including Huawei, were subjected to severe sanctions. I am in favor of a war between the two countries, but economically, I don't see anything, because China and the United States are in different dimensions, and neither can hurt anyone.
The dominant online view of the financial war is that it is a cyclical harvest, just as it was when American money flowed into Asia and South America and Argentina. Take, for example, Thailand's most famous economic crisis, where the United States used to reap huge benefits from its natives.
The United States is the country with the most private assets, and there is no need for any interference at all, and a big business like Soros will not hesitate to join in as long as there are enough profits.
Step 1: Take out a loan in Thailand and convert it into US dollars.
Soros, as a foreign capital, entered Thailand to invest, and then used his fame to easily convert a large amount of Thai baht into US dollars from major Thai banks.
At that time, Thailand adopted a fiscal and foreign exchange system similar to that of Hong Kong, our country. First, the linked exchange rate system was adopted to pegged to the renminbi so that its exchange rate against the US dollar remained unchanged; Secondly, it is the circulation of funds, foreign capital in Thailand can enter and leave at any time, and can be converted into Thai baht at any time, and there is no restriction at all.
Keeping these two characteristics in mind will help you understand the following better.
Step 2: Speculate on assets first and then release unfavorable news.
Soros relied on the prosperity of this country to start buying all kinds of real estate in Thailand, and then when the time is right, he will sell Thailand's **, and then release some unfavorable remarks.
With Thailand's previous asset values soaring and the volatile economic situation, any change will have a strong response. After all, Soros is one of the most influential countries in the world, and as soon as his negative news came out, many people followed him and started **Thailand's**, as well as Thailand**.
As mentioned earlier, if Thailand adopts a fixed exchange rate system, then Thailand** would need to pay its corresponding foreign exchange reserves in "yuan", which would lead to debt arrears and thus jeopardize the country's sovereign credibility.
The third step is to force Thailand to abandon its linked exchange rate and get nothing.
Thailand has used tens of billions of dollars of foreign exchange to regulate and control it, and although it has released a lot of baht, it has been given by world funds"Eat"In the end, it had to withdraw from the fixed exchange rate and change to a managed floating exchange rate system. Once the gap is opened, then the exchange rate of the baht will be straight**.
Do you remember what Soros did when he first arrived in Thailand? He buys dollars from Thailand, which is equivalent to buying dollars with a higher **, and when the dollar **, Soros uses cheaper dollars in exchange for more dollars, so that Soros can earn more dollars, return the dollars to the Bank of Thailand, take the excess dollars, and go abroad.
The United States wants to plunder Thailand's foreign exchange, plunder the wealth of their people, that's why they do it, and Soros, like some countries in Southeast Asia, do the same, that's why they do this, and that's why they cause the economic crisis in Asia.
This is the traditional financial war model, and the most discussed on the Internet is the rise and fall of interest rates, and its internal logic is the same. First, interest rate cuts and loose monetary policy stimulated the country's assets**, creating an economic bubble; Then there is the increase in interest rates, which brings the dollar back to the United States, causing assets overseas**. Eventually, the Fed lowers interest rates and issues money, allowing them to price their assets at a low price.
It's a tried and tested approach that has enriched American money. However, the implementation of this approach requires a highly open financial market, such as Thailand, Argentina, Hong Kong, which almost lost in a fiscal war. More precisely, the fixed interest rates mentioned above and the free flow of money do not exist in Chinese mainland.
First of all, for a long time, China has been fluctuating in a controlled exchange rate.
Thailand is known because it has a fixed exchange rate from the beginning, which means that no matter how many you sell, you have to exchange for the same number of yuan. In contrast to a floating exchange rate, when a country's currency is sold, its exchange rate will be ** and the seller will receive less currency while paying more in the local currency.
Also, since we are the world's largest exporter and the United States is the largest importer, a devaluation of the currency is good for exports, so that it can balance out a ** war waged by the United States.
Second, China's capital account has not yet been fully opened.
Regardless of China's ** market and real estate market for the time being, foreign capital cannot enter and exit at will, and the only foreign capital and QFII that can pass through Hong Kong Connect are currently regulated, and the limit is also limited; As for the real estate market, it is not to mention, because foreigners simply cannot speculate, let alone buy a house. At the same time, the outflow of national and foreign currency is also subject to approval, and it is difficult to recover even the property collected.
A fully open capital market is different because it allows money to flow freely anytime, anywhere, and there are no restrictions on the investment, so you only need to make a fuss about the capital spread.
Third, it is impossible to buy what must be bought.
What is China's biggest advantage? There are many infrastructure and natural resources such as electricity, communication facilities, railways, airports, ports, oil fields, coal mines, metal mines, etc. Unlike other countries, this is all controlled by the state. Unlike other countries, those are controlled by state-owned enterprises, which is equivalent to being controlled by the state, and even if you have more funds, you can't buy them, let alone acquire them. Not many people will believe this truth, because they are afraid that if they understand it, they will say it endlessly.
In addition, China has only a small amount of foreign debt. This is similar to Japan, which has more than 220% of its debt, but it is basically domestic debt, and if they can't pay it, they don't have to use their own property to pay off foreign debts. China's external debt levels have remained low, meaning that most of the country's debt is domestic rather than foreign, let alone borrowing secured by significant assets.
From the above three aspects, China has long pulled the fence very tightly, preventing foreign capital from plundering our money, and at the same time, it also shows that using China's fiscal war to gain benefits is simply a kind of crossing the river and tearing down bridges.
The main battlefield between China and the United States is economy, trade, and science and technology, and there are always some people who go around and around in order to confuse us so that we can pay attention to our economic problems. In addition to getting traffic, I think there may be another purpose in this.
This is just my own opinion, please pay more attention, like, your encouragement is the biggest motivation for my creation!