France's Emmanuel Macron openly talked about "sending troops to Ukraine" on the 26th, and Western allies such as the United States, Britain, Germany, and Poland have denied their intention to send ground troops. Some analysts believe that the reason why Macron broke this taboo is mainly to send a "political signal". But there is no wind and no waves, and the West continues to "cut sausages" military aid to Ukraine, increasing the risk of a direct conflict with Russia.
Political signal] Agence France-Presse reported on the 27th, citing a European military source, that European allies have been studying sending troops to Ukraine for several weeks, and the United States supports this idea.
Macron presided over the "International Conference on Support for Ukraine" in Paris on the 26th, and said when releasing the results of the meeting that the meeting did not reach a consensus on sending troops to Ukraine, but did not rule out this possibility. "We will do everything in our power to ensure that Russia cannot win this war. ”
Macron did not elaborate on the meeting's discussion on "sending troops to Ukraine". France*** said that the idea was not to send French ** teams to Ukraine to engage Russian forces directly. French Defense Minister Sebastien Le Corny said that the meeting discussed sending troops to Ukraine to clear mines and train the Ukrainian army, but no consensus was reached.
The three Baltic countries advocate increasing aid to Ukraine. Lithuanian Defense Minister Alvidas Anusauskas told reporters: "We are discussing training tasks. ”
Camille Grand, a former senior French national of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said that Macron's "sending troops" was a "major political signal" with three meanings: "Tell Ukraine that we are prepared to take risks to support them; Tell Russia that this war is very important to us; Tell the public that the stakes are high and we cannot rule out the possibility. ”
The escalation of the Ukrainian crisis has entered its third year, and the West has admitted that the Ukrainian army lacks ammunition and strength, and the Russian army is gaining the upper hand. According to Reuters, Macron therefore hastily convened this "international conference in support of Ukraine".
AFP believes that Macron's remarks represent a change in his role on the Ukraine issue. For years, he has positioned himself as a high-level mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
France participated in the Minsk agreements aimed at resolving the Ukrainian issue. In February 2022, before Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine, Macron flew to Moscow to try to persuade Russia at the last minute.
Now, according to Agence France-Presse, Macron is eager to create the most pro-Ukraine "persona" in Europe.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia, a US think tank, said that Macron's "troop dispatch theory" reflects his increasingly tough stance on Russia. "Perhaps this is a strategic ambiguity intended to push Putin to negotiate on the terms of the Ukrainian side. ”
Gabuev noted that in fact, a small number of Western military personnel, as well as quite a few mercenaries, have already participated in the war in Ukraine. However, he could not imagine that French society would support the sending of large numbers of French troops to Ukraine.
Michel Goya, a historian of French affairs, said Macron's remarks "undoubtedly represent a rhetorical upgrade."
Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Foreign and Defense Policy Committee of a Russian think tank, said Macron's words "will surprise some in Russia" and prompt Russia to be tougher, especially on nuclear deterrence.
After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, NATO has publicly stated that it will not send NATO combat troops to Ukraine, citing fears that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will escalate into a conflict between NATO and Russia. However, many Western countries have provided Ukraine with a large number of advanced equipment, trained Ukrainian soldiers, and some mercenaries from Western countries went to Ukraine to fight.
Over the past two years, the West has repeatedly crossed the red line set earlier and has continuously escalated the level of military equipment supplies to Ukraine, AFP reported. In particular, Britain and France supply Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles, which would have been unthinkable two years ago.
According to Macron, when Russia launched its special military operation against Ukraine two years ago, some people in Western countries advocated "never" providing Ukraine with tanks, planes or long-range missiles, but later changed the degree. These people are now also advocating "never" sending troops to Ukraine, but may change their minds "in six to 12 months."
Some analysts say that the West's military aid to Ukraine is a process of constantly "cutting sausages" and breaking taboos, constantly testing Russia's bottom line. The Russian side has repeatedly warned the West about the risk of escalating the conflict, but the West does not seem to be listening.
Macron said on the 26th that Western countries will form the ninth international united front to further "mobilize" capable countries to "medium-range and long-range missiles capable of carrying out deep strikes" to Ukraine. The previous eight united fronts were aimed at simplifying the ** transfer to Ukraine, including air defense systems, artillery and ammunition.
Igor Korotchenko, director of the Russian Center for the Analysis of the World ***, told the Russian Satellite News Agency that it can be speculated through this move that the Ukrainian army will use Western-aided high-precision long-range missiles to strike deep into critical infrastructure in Russia, rather than launching a new **.
Sergei Lavrov, the head of Russia, warned on the 27th that providing Ukraine with a ** suitable for a deep attack on Russia is tantamount to self-destruction".
*Xinhua.
Edited by Huang Qian.
Second instance Chen Zhaohui.
Third trial Yang Yi.