In early trading, the main domestic contracts were mixed. The container transportation index (European line) rose by more than 13%, styrene (EB) rose by more than 3%, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and methanol rose by more than 2%, and industrial silicon rose by nearly 2%. In terms of decline, red dates, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and No. 20 rubber (NR) fell by more than 1%.
The container shipping index** is long on dips around the low-cost range of 1400 1600 and even more ideal
The crisis of the Red Sea chain has caused the main routes represented by the Europe-Terro Line to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in an increase in time and a decrease in the turnover rate. And since most of the ships involved have already begun to detour, the immediate impact of this incident has been realized in the detour of the liners. However, the impact of the decline in turnover may not be realized until late February, mid-to-early March. Prior to the "March turnover decline was reflected in the fleet but there was still a significant price reduction**", we maintained our expectations for the delivery settlement price of the 04 contract (reflecting the weekly freight level in April) since the beginning of January, and we currently believe that the delivery settlement price of the 04 contract is conservative at 1600 1800 points, the neutral case is 2000 2200 points, and the ideal case is 2400 2700 points. For the 04 contract, we believe that the overall market may be dominated by the ** market, and we can consider going long in the low-cost range around 1400 1600 or even more ideal with the release of market sentiment. (China Securities Construction Investment (601066)**