1. In the past few days, many places across the country have encountered cold winter and heavy snowfall, especially in Anhui, Hubei, many train flights have been canceled, and many places have experienced blizzards that have not been encountered for more than ten years.
This weather minimizes travel, this year's New Year is a cold winter, I hope that the snow will be a good year, and the next year will be a bumper year.
I am ready to go back to my hometown for the Chinese New Year next week, and I will go home to feel the atmosphere of the snow, and I will be wrapped in endless silver, which is a bit like going back to the feeling of watching snow when I was a child. Compared with the cold weather, this week's **chill is stronger, 4 days a week the mood is at the freezing point, 5000**, the difficulty of the operation has reached the hell level.
This situation is relatively rare in history, and it also reflects many problems, especially the recent uproar of snowball liquidation, two financings, and private equity cordons.
When the risk comes, the first thing that can not be carried is leveraged funds, and then trigger a series of chain reactions, remember that in 2015, there were a lot of over-the-counter leveraged funds, when the big fall came, first 10 times the leverage liquidation, then 8 times, then 6 times.
Only those who survive in the end can pick up these bloody chips, so everyone must be cautious with leverage, ** must follow the principle of using spare money, otherwise you won't even be able to survive the cold winter, and the sunshine behind you will have nothing to do with you.
No winter will not pass, just as no spring will not come, although there are many places that still need to be improved, but as long as the stock price falls through, this is the biggest benefit.
At present, the most lacking in the market is confidence, and I hope that the management can pay attention to it, whether it is the IPO issue or the violation of the rules by major shareholders, and put the interests of shareholders in the first place, so that everyone can trust this market.
2. Document No. 1 was released to promote the comprehensive revitalization of the countryside!
Interpretation: Document No. 1 of 2024 was released on the 3rd, proposing a "roadmap" for effectively promoting the comprehensive revitalization of the countryside. The document proposes to ensure national food security and ensure that there is no large-scale return to poverty as the bottom line, strengthen the two-wheel drive of science and technology and reform, so as to accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas and better promote Chinese-style modernization.
Among them, the word "science and technology courtyard" was written into the first document for the first time, and the charging pile was mentioned in the countryside for the first time, which are the focus of policy promotion.
Corresponding to the market, in the current lack of a strong main line, the agricultural sector is likely to usher in a small wave of speculation.
From the handicap point of view, the whole sector is in the trend, and the strategy can choose to have the main force to protect the disk, and it is likely to become the pioneer of the market.
3. **Short through refinancing** lending, in the industry: the scale is small and the impact on the market is limited!
Interpretation: Recently, the market news about "refinancing lending with positions, and shorting the market" and "interest on refinancing and lending bonds is not included in the net value" continues to ferment.
According to institutional sources, the purpose of refinancing the lending business is to increase the income, and the income is all included in the assets.
According to the data, as of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the total scale of refinancing securities (securities borrowed by brokerages from public offerings and major shareholders) in the whole market was 11041.7 billion, the total scale of the whole market securities lending (securities lent by brokerages to downstream customers) is 7159.7 billion.
Although the scale is really not large, I always feel uncomfortable, isn't it just to make money for our people? Is it to be cannon fodder for the ** company?
Knowing that this bond will be lent out, it will definitely be used to short, which will inevitably lead to pressure on the stock price and the loss of the stock price.
Under this appeal, the relevant institutions, the market itself is already very weak, don't make it worse, don't short yourself, weak forces are sometimes important participants in the market.
It is recommended that qualified students still do their own trading, at least the profits and losses are their own responsibility, the level of these ** managers is also uneven, and the investment destiny is more practical in their own hands.
4. Strengthen scientific and technological innovation and accelerate the development of new quality productivity!
Interpretation: At present, "new quality productivity" has become a hot word. In the recent ZF work reports released by various localities, many places are planning new ways to solve the problem of productivity based on the existing local advantages.
Technological innovation is still the focus of the current policy force, corresponding to the market, artificial intelligence, computing power, chips, robot manufacturing, etc., are also the focus of economic development in 2024.
Corresponding to the market, although the capital risk aversion sentiment is strong, and cyclical stocks led by China Shenhua are highly sought after, the elasticity of technology stocks should not be underestimated, and heavyweight stocks will form a seesaw effect, especially in the process of the main force to protect the disk, combined with the focus of the handicap tracking.
5. Market outlook.
Overall, the news over the weekend was bearish, especially the U.S. non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and the probability of an interest rate cut in March was extremely low, which would put indirect pressure on the capital market.
Next week is the last week of the year, and it is expected that the market will be relatively light, and a lot of funds are resting, ready to fight again after the holiday, and it is estimated that the daily trading volume will shrink at about 700 billion.
In the short term, 266633 is the current stage of the low, the extremes of things must be reversed, this week has already appeared 4 freezing points, next week there will definitely be a repair action, for the next year's spring restlessness ** to pave the way.
From the direction of view, on the one hand, there is a super main force to take care of the special estimate, which has not yet been completely completed, pay attention to the pattern of two fluctuations.
On the other hand, AI is still the core position of the theme, once it stabilizes, artificial intelligence will make a comeback, which is also the direction with the highest growth at present, especially the upstream computing power and CPO, which are also the focus of this round.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the guidelines for refinancing