Recently, I received interesting news through Burmese channels about the significant progress made in the two-month civil war in Burma. After launching a modest attack on Lao Cai, the capital of Kokang, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army successfully conducted several rounds of negotiations with the ** army stationed in Lao Cai, and finally reached an agreement that the ** army agreed to withdraw from Lao Cai and cede it to the allied forces. The Allied forces fulfilled their conditions, sending vehicles to transfer the ** army to the lower reaches of Burma. Judging from the information released by several ** accounts in the Kokang area, the county town of Lao Cai, the capital of Kokang, has a ceasefire, and the allied forces are taking over Lao Cai City. The news looks credible.
However, what I want is not the details of this news, but the reason why the Burmese army finally gave up resistance. Does this war situation have any implications for us to resolve the Taiwan issue?
In the Battle of Lao Cai, why did the Burmese ** Army stationed in the Kokang area finally choose to give up resistance? Unlike the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian army had to evacuate after the Russian army destroyed Ukrainian cities into "lunar surfaces" and turned them into ruins. In the Battle of Lao Cai, the losses of both sides were smaller, and the Allied forces easily occupied Lao Cai County, the capital of Kokang. The key to the success of the Allied Army lies in destroying the confidence and will to fight of the ** army. They adopted the overall strategy of the "dumpling war", starting from the periphery of Kokang and encircling them on all sides, gradually narrowing the scope of the siege inward, seizing key points of communication, and cutting off the entry and exit channels of the ** army. The army has lost the support of ground mobility and assistance, and can only rely on limited air support, but it is difficult to solve the problem. When the encirclement continued to shrink, the ** army was isolated and helpless, and naturally lost the will to fight. Faced with no way out, they had no choice but to negotiate to abandon resistance and ask the Allies to leave them a way to survive and send them to Lower Burma. The experience of the victory of the Allied army was the skillful use of psychological tactics, the distribution of travel expenses, and the return of the militia of the ** army and local forces. This psychological tactic has achieved great results, and many soldiers and militia of the ** army have chosen to surrender.
The enlightenment brought to us by this example is that if we implement a naval and air blockade when resolving the Taiwan issue and create a sense of actual panic on the island, the psychological pressure on Taiwan's military officers and soldiers, politicians on Taiwan, and even the people may be the same as when the allied forces captured Lao Cai, and there is no need for the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is a scorched earth war in which the Ukrainian army has a way to withdraw, and the goal of the Taiwan authorities and military seeking a ceasefire and giving up resistance can be achieved. There have been many similar examples in history, such as the peaceful liberation of Beiping during the War of Liberation and the uprising in Yunnan. In Beiping, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) used the tactics of division and encirclement, leaving Fu Zuoyi with no way to escape, and was finally forced to surrender. In Yunnan, Lu Han saw the situation of the Kuomintang and the Communist Party after the founding of New China and took the initiative to launch an uprising. If we have forced the defenders of the Taiwan army on the periphery of the Matsu Islands, Kinmen Island, and Dongsha Island to surrender on their own initiative, have cleared out the enemy forces that refuse to surrender, seized the Penghu Islands, and imposed a naval and air blockade on the islands, it will inevitably cause a tremendous panic among the Taiwan authorities and army, and their will may collapse, and they will eventually be forced to surrender like Fu Zuoyi, and the probability of accepting reunification is extremely high. Even the situation in which military generals overthrow the Taiwan authorities and accept reunification is also worth pursuing. This is a relatively low-cost reunification, and it can even be classified as peaceful reunification. However, in order to realize cross-strait reunification, we need not only constant appeals, but also concrete actions.