Will corn continue**? Will it usher in ** after the year?
It can be said that corn at home and abroad has fallen, and it is currently in the performance stage of farmers selling grain before the holiday, some of the storage points are low-cost construction of drying towers, and the northern corn ** fell to the bottom before the year, and the Spring Festival stocking of southern feed enterprises is basically over, with the breeding industry has not improved and imported corn, cornmeal and other substitutes, resulting in corn is also sluggish, so will corn fall? Will there be a warmer after the year?
To be honest, everyone hopes that the price of corn will rise, after all, it is not easy to grow the land, and everyone wants to sell more, but judging from the situation this year, the possibility of price increase is not large, and it is even continuing, why? The following 5 points are very clear signs. First, this year's corn, both in terms of sown area and production hectares, has expanded and improved, in other words, this year's corn ** is particularly abundant, according to published data, the national corn production in 2023 will increase by 13.2 million tons compared to the previous year.
At the same time, this year also imported 6.51 million tons more than the previous year, which is basically equivalent to the scale of corn imports in 2022. What's more, 2024 has just begun, and corn imports have not yet started.
The second is the impact of imported corn. According to statistics, the national corn import volume reached 4.95 million tons in a single month, creating a historical record, we all know that the import of corn is low, and the current arrival in Hong Kong is about 1 yuan.
Third, the growth rate of the agricultural industry is slowing down, especially the pig industry, you may not believe it, at present, it is basically selling at a loss, in this case, I think (2024) it is basically impossible to expand the scale of agriculture, the agricultural industry is sluggish, and the demand for products will naturally decrease, not to mention that cornmeal and other agricultural product substitutes will also be imported, so it is basically useless to rely on the agricultural industry to pull corn.
Fourth, he also said that, as mentioned above, the feed enterprises in the south are purchasing goods, and most of these enterprises purchase imported goods, the reason is low, which shows that the intention of these feed companies to buy domestic corn is not large, the demand is weak, sufficient, and no matter how good it is, it cannot compare with the supply and demand of the market.
Fifth, the surplus grain in the hands of farmers is sufficient, from the current corn market situation, farmers in the main producing areas have at least 5 percent of corn, so that the first businessmen do not dare to come to buy, can only be exploited and purchased, after all, no one is willing to take risks, not to mention that low-cost imported corn is still eyeing up.
Will corn fall? Judging from the signals released by the above 5 points, the supply of corn market is sufficient, coupled with the impact of imported corn, the supply of corn is very sufficient, but due to the slowdown of the breeding industry and the substitution of import substitution, the demand for corn is weak.
As for whether it will pick up after the year? I think it will be difficult for corn to have a big corn after the year, but it will not be as stable as it was a year ago, at least it will be relatively stable, and there will be a small period of time that may not be very long. First of all, many people look at the corn that has been repeatedly sold and seem to panic throwing grain, which indicates that the pressure of selling grain will be relatively small after the year. It does not mean that corn will be piled up until the end of the year before it is most likely to stampede the big price reduction.
The second is that the acquisition of enterprises will collect a large amount of grain after the year, because corn has fallen to a low point, especially in the grain reserves, COFCO these enterprises, if not a large number of purchases after the year, corn really has the risk of bad grain. Finally, the basic grain merchants will also join the purchase team, after all, China Grain Reserves, COFCO these enterprises have gone out, if they do not move, the market may not have grain, not to mention the decline of corn after the year.
In short, the possibility of corn is not very likely, and there is even a possibility of **, as for the recovery after the year, maybe the corn market will not be so pessimistic after the year, and it will not be endless, at least it will be relatively stable, and there will be a small number of phases This is just a personal point of view, and it is not to let all the corn be left until the year after the year, and then sell it at the right time, not too late.