Recently, the international gold price has continued to "soar". On December 4, comex*** hit an intraday high of 21523 US dollars an ounce, London spot** rose to 2144 at one point68 US dollars per ounce, the international gold price has reached a new high since breaking through the all-time high in May. Industry insiders believe that the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are heating up, and the intensification of geopolitical conflicts is the main reason for this round of international gold prices.
Source: Qiantu.com Since mid-November, the international gold price has risen. "The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have moved forward, pushing *** higher. Wang Yanqing, chief researcher of China Securities Construction Investment, said that coupled with the demand for hedging, investors have been continuously refreshed to record highs under the multiple effects.
Gao Wei, manager of Zhaojin Refining Trading Department, believes that the current weakening of U.S. economic data makes the market believe that the Fed's hawkish stance is difficult to maintain, and the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have further increased.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has exacerbated geopolitical tensions and triggered a strong risk aversion in the market, and gold prices are an inevitable result. At present, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict situation is still tense, and the geopolitical conflict has not been completely resolved. Wan Zhe, a professor at Beijing Normal University and former chief economist of China** Group, said.
Geopolitical risks and safe-haven buying are driving gold prices higher, and it is expected to move further higher in the future if geopolitical turmoil continues or even the crisis intensifies, the risk of recession rises again, or bond yields and the dollar peak, the World Association said.
In addition, the global central bank gold buying boom has also supported international gold prices to a certain extent. According to the report of the World Association, global central banks continue to buy gold strongly, which provides a boost to demand. Q3** demand (excluding OTC) was 1,147t, 8% above the five-year average. Central banks are expected to continue to have strong demand for the remainder of the year, suggesting that total central bank demand is expected to remain firm throughout 2023.
Wan Zhe believes that the central bank is the vane of the market. The central bank's continued gold purchases also indicate that the current market risk aversion and tension have not been completely eased under the influence of the geopolitical situation.
For the future trend, experts generally said that in the medium and long term, the international gold price still has the best space, and in the short term, it may be dominated by the best. Xia Yingying, an analyst at Nanhua ** Nonferrous Metals, said that in the short term, the current market has advanced and sufficient trading on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and if the U.S. Treasury yields continue to fall due to the trading of interest rate cut expectations, it may inhibit the tightening of the U.S. financial market and hinder the realization of the Fed's inflation target, and does not rule out the possibility that the Fed will re-release hawkish signals to balance market expectations, which will affect gold prices.
In the medium to long term, we remain bullish**. Xia Yingying said that the decline in the credibility of the US dollar and the credit sustainability of US bonds are stimulating global central banks to increase their holdings of foreign exchange reserves and pushing up the premium level below the real interest rate of US bonds.
According to the financial credit research report, the Fed's current round of interest rate hike cycle may have ended, and U.S. interest rates may turn around after staying at a higher level for a period of time, and the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury real yields will decline.
Editor-in-charge: Ren Haopeng |Review: Li Zhen |Supervisor: Wan Junwei.
*: Economy**).