Even now, there are many criticisms of GDP, from economists in society to ordinary people, who believe that GDP does not reflect the per capita level of the entire country.
However, it is undeniable that for now, until there is a better composite indicator to replace GDP, GDP is still the most direct indicator of a country's economic strength.
The GDP data for 2023 has been released before, and we all know that the United States is definitely firmly at the top of the list, at about 27$37 trillion. On some ** accounts, there are always many people who brag that China's economic strength has far surpassed that of the United States, but the GDP data will not deceive, China as the second, with a GDP of up to 17$89 trillion, but that's still nearly $10 trillion short of the United States. The reason for this is not that China is not underdeveloped, but that there are too many underdeveloped places in China.
This $10 trillion gap is a bit wider than in 2022. On the one hand, the United States' ** sanctions against China have prevented China's foreign trade economy from continuing to soar. On the other hand, the inflation price in the United States has made the GDP data higher, and coupled with the RMB exchange rate, China's GDP data growth rate is not as high as in the past. However, in terms of economic growth, China must be much higher than the United States.
Japan, which was previously known as the world's second largest economy, is now unable to even retain its third position, and Germany is nominal 4The $45 trillion GDP surpasses Japan's 4$21 trillion. In fact, the economic environment in Europe and the United States is relatively similar, and Germany also takes advantage of prices and exchange rates, after all, Germany's economy will have negative growth in 2023.
Economists and people in various countries are also very concerned about the issue of GDP, and since it can't be compared now, it will be better than in the future. Just like Japan watched Germany surpass itself, it said that Germany was engaged in nominal GDP, taking advantage of the price and exchange rate. Japan said ruthlessly that it will be able to regain its original position next year, and at the same time said that by 2050, Japan will reach a higher level.
In fact, for the GDP of each country in 2050, each country's own relevant departments or its own people will make a **. According to the economic model of Goldman Sachs, the nominal GDP of the United States will reach about 37 by 2050$2 trillion. As for the growth rate, in the next 20 years, the annual growth rate will be about 114%, which is not much different from the current situation in the United States. However, the total GDP is $10 trillion higher than it is now.
In fact, this data is not exaggerated, although there is an extra $10 trillion, but is it possible that the extra $10 trillion is caused by inflation? Of course, the U.S. economy is still developing, but it is clear that if the U.S. does not find an opportunity to interfere with the economies of other countries, it will be difficult to make any economic improvements, and at most it will maintain the status quo.
And what about China? Now China's nominal GDP is 1789 trillion US dollars, and in 27 years, that is, in 2050, the year when China will build itself into a modern power in an all-round way, China's nominal GDP will reach 41$9 trillion, which is a full 47 trillion dollars. The average annual growth rate has reached 3About 2%. Although the growth rate is slower than it is now, it is much higher than in other countries.
In addition to China and the United States, let's take a look at the third and fourth children after that. According to this round of speculation, the third largest economy by 2050 will be India. Why India? Because India now has the highest economic growth rate in the world, and at the same time, India has the largest population in the world. It is speculated that India's nominal GDP will reach 222 trillion US dollars, while the economic growth rate is as high as 686%, which is far more than the countries behind.
And what about Japan and Germany? Japan, which is expected to reach 6With a GDP of about 2 trillion US dollars, of course, the economic growth rate is no longer worth mentioning. And what about Germany? Germany's nominal GDP is estimated at $6 trillion, which is the fifth and sixth largest in the world, respectively. What about fourth? It is still an Asian country, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, and is expected to achieve 6$3 trillion in GDP. You can guess which country.
According to this economic model, by 2050, Asia will replace Europe and the United States as the economic center, and Asia will account for 4 of the world's top 10 nominal GDP countries, and they are the first.
I. Third, fourth and sixth, very high in the rankings.
The economies of European countries have reached a peak, and it is difficult to continue to break through in a short period of time. Therefore, the changes in Europe and the United States will not be too big, and on the whole it is not as fast as the first in Asian countries. If there are no accidents, the estimation of this economic model is relatively accurate. Unless it is said, in order to consolidate their positions, European and American countries continue to do things, such as vigorously sanctioning the economies of other countries, or infringing on the rights of other countries. **10,000 Fans Incentive Plan