Construction will start in 2024, in fact, everyone is still most concerned about real estate, after all, every family has a house. And the year before, everyone saw that the price of houses in various places was greatly reduced. Many people also feel that 2024 should be the end.
On the issue of the rise and fall of housing prices, the forces of the long and short factions are very large, and the views of both sides are very torn. Real estate is at a historical crossroads.
As Lucas of the rational expectation school said, the market's expectations are very critical, or affect the product**, and determine the changes in the market. Everyone's current expectations for the future of real estate directly determine the subsequent evolution.
At present, it can be roughly divided into two factions.
One faction thinks that real estate will still be strong, and the logic behind it is the kidnapping of real estate for the entire national economic system, and they feel that real estate will be the bottom of real estate.
This kind of assumption and logic, although many people are well aware of the real estate ** and even absurd, this still supports more people to be bullish on real estate. Although under the strong macro control, although they also admit that the adjustment is imminent, they still feel that the first regulation is just a show, and they do not accept the decline of real estate in their hearts.
The other faction feels that the general trend of real estate has gone, and the logic behind it is roughly strong under the first macro control, the real estate industry has made great efforts to deleverage, return from financial attributes to commodity attributes, and realize "housing is not speculation".
Removing financial attributes, according to the relationship between market supply and demand, many places have already been oversupplied, and housing prices in many places may face a sharp fall, and those who eagerly participate in speculation may end miserably. In addition, the population ** has become a fact.
In this way, a very critical question - if there is a problem in real estate, whether it will be covered, this point becomes very critical. Will it really be a back-and-forth?
Theoretically, most people's instincts are. The reason why I say it is intuitive is that it is a guess.
But the truth and mystery of the world lies in uncertainty, and if everything were so simple, then this expectation would also make the world more transparent, and the game with each other would be less complicated. Let's take a look at a few things.
First, if something happens to a real estate company, will it be a cover?
In recent years, there have been many real estate companies that have had accidents, not to mention the small ones that have collapsed, but the larger ones, such as Tahoe Group, China Fortune, Fusheng Group, and the crumbling R&F Real Estate. What happened to these companies after the accident?
What we initially imagined was that Tahoe Group, China Fortune, Fusheng Group and similar companies involved were huge in scale and with a large number of people. From the perspective of stabilizing finance and employment, these companies should have a force to maintain stability. But now a few years have passed, and everyone has seen that these companies have not died well and are still suffering.
It is undeniable that a lot of work has been done in it, all kinds of coordination, and its starting point is very clear. It is understood that ** has successively asked Shimao, Vanke, Ping An and many other companies to take over the coordination, but so far to no avail. The enterprise that takes over is nothing more than picking up its high-quality assets, and it is completely impossible to rescue the enterprise, let alone solve its difficulties. In business, any enterprise is a business unit, and it has to be responsible for its own profits and losses, and it is impossible to pull itself into the water in order to save anyone. According to business rules, this kind of enterprise facing bankruptcy is actually irretrievable.
These real estate companies are in trouble, and the biggest victims are the owners who buy these unfinished properties. I have friends who have spent a lot of money to buy Tahoe yards, and in order to defend their rights, they have endured hardships and hardships over the years. Everyone has high hopes for **, and ** also very much hopes to help these businesses and owners, but this is a dead knot that cannot be untied. It's impossible to use taxpayers' money to advance and compensate for losses, right?
Second, when real estate owners encounter something, will they be at the bottom of the line?
As mentioned above, some owners are more unlucky to encounter this kind of rotten thing, ** will not care. I think that we should not doubt the goodwill and sincerity of **, ** must want to manage, I hope that the country and the people are safe, the society is stable, and I hope to live and work in peace and contentment, and everyone is happy. But in essence, in finance, the capital chain is broken, and there is no ability to connect it. Now it is a market economy, and you have to do things according to business rules, and you can't manage it.
Recently, everyone has seen that in the Huanjing area of Hebei, many of the original happy houses in China are not the same, but everyone has nothing to do. In fact, local problems in the house have already begun to appear. Last year, many houses such as Evergrande reduced their prices, and the discounts were very exaggerated, which caused dissatisfaction among many owners and social conflicts. However, it is still necessary to continue, and these social stability factors cannot hinder the adjustment of the market.
In fact, it is obvious to refer to another phenomenon. In the past many years, the previously popular P2P has involved a wide range of funds and personnel. Some P2P companies have a capital scale of 10 billion yuan, and there are millions of people involved. Before, many people felt that with these data alone, it was impossible to ignore and be full of expectations. What is the end result? P2P is back to 0, those who should go to jail will go to jail, and investors who have lost their money are numb. On the other hand, if there is an expectation of the bottom line, this is equivalent to rigid payment. Once the ** is at the bottom, there will only be more people caught in this chain and unable to extricate themselves. Breaking the bottom and breaking the rigid payment, I think it is a kind of rationality.
To sum up, if you have a bottom line expectation for ** and continue to squint to buy a house, I think the result will disappoint you and be very dangerous. Speaking of which, some people will ask rhetorically, isn't the economy going to be doomed?
I don't think so, because the whole process of real estate deleveraging is a continuous, long-lasting process, and it will not come suddenly, like a frog boiled in warm water. It has been 3 years since the adjustment in 2018, and 3 years is just the beginning. This gradual process is unlikely to trigger economic shock, but it can be a very bad thing for owners who are caught in the problem of real estate "deleveraging", this kind of suffering is endless, and all the suffering can only be swallowed in their stomachs.
Over the years, perhaps the princes of the beacon fire show, or shouted too many wolves, and they were insensitive to policy signals, or they were completely indifferent.
Be confident that no one will come to save you. It's still old-fashioned thinking, and it's going to be troublesome. Don't blame ** for not helping you, but the leader repeatedly shouted, but you didn't take it seriously.
What's more, look at the past 2023, ** everywhere is indeed saving, but what is the effect?