Unless demand increases significantly, commodities are likely to go further, according to a market analyst. Because of the low level, John Heinberg of Total Farm Marketing said there was an opportunity to move some corn. "Before we start importing some South America**, this is a very critical window for January, February and March. The U.S. is in the main demand window for corn. With the Brazilian harvest starting to kick in, the soybean sales window is now closed. ”
Heinberg said that if ** is to recover, the market needs to see some bushel movements, and the USDA needs to make adjustments on the demand side. "If we don't see these numbers come together as we'd like hope, the market expects China to probably enter the market, but I don't think that's going to happen in the short term. You know, there's a trend here. It's a bit defensive until we might get some data for 2025 in our May report. ”
Heinberg said that if the USDA's May report shows an improvement in demand, it could lead to a market reversal due to corn***.
For soybeans, Heinberg said that the recent estimate of Brazilian soybean production is around 145 to 1500 million tonnes, but growing conditions have improved throughout South America. "You know it's going to drop dramatically, but if you add that along with Argentina's **, because they've recovered from drought after the last few years. You can still see more bushels coming from South America, whereas last year we didn't. ”
Heinberg said the soybean market feels like a slippery slope, but, "there will be some opportunities ahead." I do think that when I talk about the future, like the end of summer and the beginning of autumn, the harvest in Brazil is going to be tight, and that could be a window of demand for us. ”
Brazil and Argentina are the main players, but Paraguay, Uruguay and other smaller countries have also increased their soybean production in South America, Heinberg said.