Ukrainian scientists say Russia used its secret hypersonic Zircon cruise missile to strike at least one target in Ukraine. If so, this would be a very important development, the first use of a "real" hypersonic strike in combat **. However, there are still many questions about the real capabilities of the "Zircon" and its operational state.
The Kyiv Institute of Forensic Laboratory Sciences officially claims that Zircon (sometimes written as tsirkon) was used to attack Ukraine. This is said to be based on a preliminary analysis of missile fragments after Russia's February 7 attack on the Ukrainian capital. Ukraine** said the attack killed at least five people and damaged residential buildings and energy infrastructure.
This statement was made by the director of the institute, Oleksandr Ruvin, on his Telegram channel. His post included a paragraph of the so-called Zircon wreckage (embedded in it). "In this case, we see the characteristic elements of the 3M22 Zircon missile. Parts and fragments of the engine and steering mechanism have specific markings, "he wrote.
Ruben added that the markings on the Zircon wreckage indicate that the missile was recently created.
Prior to the institute's analysis, there had been speculation on social ** that the wreckage of the February 7 Kyiv attack** might have shown part of Zircon. This seems to be largely based on the markings of the missiles, which include "3M22", which is the numerical code name for the **.
However, even before that, similar missile wreckage appeared in Ukraine, apparently around December 30, which included parts that looked very similar to those found after the February 7 attack, even including the inscription "3M22".
While the wreckage of the two incidents apparently came from the same type of **, we should still be very cautious about the findings of the Kyiv Institute of Forensic Laboratory Sciences.
First, so far little information has been provided to explain exactly how the wreckage was identified as coming from Zircon.
Secondly, Zircon itself is still a very mysterious **, and there are no confirmed** or official renderings showing it in any degree of detail.
The Kyiv Institute of Forensic Laboratory Sciences showed various fragments of what was said to be a 3M22 Zircon missile, which was graphically shown by Russia to be a hypersonic missile of the "Wave Rider" type. This is the same principle used by the US Air Force's experimental X-51 W**Erider, in which a supersonic shock wave is used to maintain the lift and stability of the vehicle. To achieve this, conventional rocket engines bring the Zircon to the desired speed and height, which is then taken over by a breathing scramjet engine.
Typical unofficial Zircon graphics, however, the Kyiv Institute of Forensic Laboratory Sciences shows that the so-called Zircon fragments look very different from the line drawings of the so-called 3M22 Zircon missiles.
Unlike the kind of wave-protruding warheads that are usually needed, this missile seems to have more in common with the power design of a hyper-high-speed ramjet engine. This two-stage** has a cover above the nose that may hide an annular air intake that feeds the main engine once the first stage booster is detached. A similar approach was taken by the Boeing Hyfly, a demonstrator of a hypersonic ramjet-powered cruise missile.
Similarly, the Boeing Hyfly hypersonic vehicle model speculated in the Russian secret military research institute TSNII VVKO is likewise, we cannot determine the accuracy of the Ukrainian mapping or what intelligence it is based on.
Putting these issues aside for the time being, it is certainly not completely inconceivable for Russia to expose the "Zircon" to combat, even if it is not yet widely used. Russia has long used the combat environment to test new **.
In addition, although the Zircon is best known as an anti-ship **, it does have a land attack effect. In the war in Ukraine, Moscow's army has already used other types of anti-ship missiles to attack land targets. Examples include the Bastion-P, the Kh-22 32, and the Cold War-era UTES. All these missiles are mainly used to attack surface ships, but at least have a dual purpose, or can be repurposed to attack certain static ground targets.
The opportunity to test missiles against powerful air defense systems, including surface-to-air missiles supplied by the West, may be a good opportunity not to be missed. This is especially true given the hypersonic performance of the "Zircon" - the Russian military claims that it can reach speeds of up to Mach 9.
On the other hand, exposing Zircon to these systems, especially the high-end radars they utilize, poses a significant intelligence risk. Observing the missile's movement through radar tracking telemetry will provide insight into its true capabilities and characteristics. This will help Western intelligence services find better ways to defend themselves. If Russia already believes that such data has fallen into the hands of an adversary, then this risk is significantly reduced. Nevertheless, the number of sensors deployed around Kyiv and the fact that enemy space-based and airborne systems are staring at the region with interest will certainly provide unprecedented fidelity data.
At the same time, there is also the question of how to launch Zircon missiles at targets on the territory of Ukraine.
According to Russian claims, "Zircon" has so far been deployed only on Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates of the Russian Navy, and none of them have appeared in the Black Sea region at present. It is reported that other surface ships are undergoing modifications to launch such missiles, while new ** and submarines will also receive such missiles at the time of construction. Even if any such ships are already equipped with Zircons, it is not known whether they are in the area.
Allegedly, the Zircon missile was launched from the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, and one of the frigates of the Black Sea Fleet may have been modified to launch the Zircon purely on the basis of tests, which is a fairly routine part of the tests.
A more likely explanation is that the missiles were launched from some kind of static ground test facility. Due to the design for vertical launch from the container system, it should not be too difficult to assemble such a test device.
One missile was launched from a 16-cell 3S14 vertical launch system on the foredeck of the Admiral Gorshkov frigate, which was sailing in the White Sea, and there are unconfirmed rumors that the missiles were launched from vertical launch containers in Russian-occupied Crimea. However, with a claimed range of 625 miles, it is also possible that the Zircon test launch was carried out deep within Russia's real borders.
Regardless of how it is delivered, the use of Zircon will be significant if it is stacked. This marks not only the first use of Zircon in combat, including in the nearly two-year war in Ukraine, but also the first use of such hypersonic in combat by any country**.
Russia has used air-launched Dagger missiles, often referred to as hypersonics, to attack targets inside Ukraine, but apparently with mixed results. However, the "Dagger" is an air-launched ballistic missile, an evolution of the "Iskander-M" short-range ballistic missile. So, while it can theoretically reach speeds in excess of Mach 5 in the final attack part of the flight, it is not in the same class as a true hypersonic**. It can maneuver to a certain extent, but the limitations of its ballistic flight profile make it easier to ** and easier to intercept than a true hypersonic missile, with Ukraine claiming to have shot down several missiles.
A Russian MiG-31K attack aircraft landed with a Dagger missile under the fuselage, and the Zircon, with its sustained hypersonic speed and maneuverability, should pose an even greater challenge to Ukraine's air defenses. Its speed significantly reduces the time it takes to reach the target, limiting the reaction time of the defenders. In particular, it could be used against more heavily defended targets, including critical air defense assets themselves, as well as those that have been hardened, such as reinforced command centers.
However, reports about Zircon, its status, mode of operation, and especially its capabilities have been mixed. Russia ** is usually quite happy to boast about its own ** capabilities, but in the past it has also been admitted that "Zircon" has encountered significant difficulties during its development.
In 2020, Russia said it had successfully fired Zircon with live ammunition for the first time during exercises in the White Sea. The missile was launched from the lead ship of the Project 22350 frigate, the Admiral Gorshkov.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the ** below shows the Project 22350 frigatesAdmiral Gorshkov launched the first Zircon missile
A year later, the first reports said that the cruise missiles were launched from a submarine (that is, the nuclear-powered Yasen-class Severodvinsk) and could navigate both on the surface and under water.
Russia** claimed in January 2023 that the Zircon had been introduced into service on the Gorshkov, which you can read about here.
The Russian Navy frigate "Admiral Gorshkov" during this period has been met with mixed information about the missile's capabilities. The Russian Defense Ministry said the missile launched over the White Sea in 2020 reached a peak speed of "more than Mach 8" and flew a total of 280 miles.
In a test conducted in the Barents Sea in 2022, the ** reportedly flew about 620 miles, which is in line with its claimed maximum range.
Screenshot of ** released by the Russian Ministry of Defense in May 2022, purportedly showing:GorshkovLaunch ** a Zircon missile:
So far, it is unclear whether the missile will be able to reach Mach 9, although any speed above Mach 5 is generally defined as hypersonic.
Moreover, contrary to the statements of the "Dagger", Russia did not comment on the statement of the use of "Zircon" in Ukraine. If it is used, it will show that Moscow is willing to risk potentially highly sensitive technology falling into the hands of Ukraine and the West in the form of missile wreckage.
The need to solve the initial problems of the missile may have given impetus to its use, at least to some extent. However, the combat use of the "Dagger" does provide a precedent for a much more exotic Russian ** to be put into combat even earlier shortly after its operational deployment.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been repeated questions about Russia's ability to manufacture high-tech** without access to Western components, hampered by severe international sanctions. In addition, the ability to manufacture such ** on a large scale has been challenged, leading to the use of obsolete and obsolete equipment.
Nevertheless, if the wreckage found in Ukraine turns out to be from the "Zircon", this will undoubtedly be another signal of Russia's progress in the development of hypersonic **, while the United States is still lagging behind in this area.
We are not as advanced as China or Russia when it comes to hypersonic programs," U.S. Space Force General and undersecretary of space operations David Thompson said in 2021, citing the Zircon tests reported that year.
More pertinently, if Russia does use hypersonic cruise missiles in Ukraine, even with very limited experimental capabilities, this will create additional new challenges for Ukraine's air defenses and new opportunities for foreign intelligence gathering.
At the moment, we have not seen publicly disclosed clear evidence that Zircon was indeed used, nor have we been able to identify extremely compelling cases of Zircon use in conflicts, but this can certainly change at any time.
Update February 16:In its latest intelligence assessment of the war in Ukraine, the British Ministry of Defense appears to support the view that "Zircon" has been used in combat. X, it noted that since there are no known missile-carrying ships in the Black Sea, the "Zircon" was most likely launched from a land-based K-300 coastal defense system, also known as a Bastion.
"It is likely that Russia is testing a newly commissioned ** system in a real-time conflict environment to provide reassurance and demonstrate capabilities," the British Ministry of Defense concluded. ”
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