It is now the middle of January, and the pace of the Spring Festival is gradually approaching, but surprisingly, agricultural and sideline products** have not been boosted by the arrival of the festival, but continue to be sluggish. Pig prices, grain prices, and egg prices have all been raised, which has deeply troubled many old farmers. In this season that should be celebrated, the desertion of the market has undoubtedly cast a shadow over their mood. Just like the autumn leaves, which should be rejuvenated with the change of seasons, they have no choice but to fall in this winter.
Recently, the pig market has been sluggish, and farmers have fallen into the predicament of losing money, and their hopes have come to naught, making them feel helpless. According to the latest data, the average price of live pigs today is 1362 yuan, compared with the previous day, it was 007 yuan kg. Today, the pig ** has fallen below the 7 yuan mark, and farmers have to suffer a loss of 200-300 yuan for a standard pig.
From the perspective of different regions, the number of pigs in North China is 005-0.1 yuan, currently ** at 13 per kilogram4-14.$1; The decline in the two regions was more obvious, ** 02-0.25 yuan, ** is 13 per kilogram05-13.85 yuan; Pigs in the southwest also fell by 005-0.1 yuan, ** is 12 per kilogram4-13.2 yuan; In Central China, it is 13 per kilogram4-14.05 yuan, ** 005-0.15 yuan; Although there was a large decline in East China, ** was 14 per kilogram45-15 yuan, but the pig ** in Fujian has fallen to 13 per kilogram$6.
Compared with other regions, the hog market in the northeast and northwest appeared relatively stable, and only the ** in Heilongjiang Province fell slightly by 005 yuan, now ** is 132 yuan kg. However, the pig market in the south has become the hardest hit area, and the traditional Liangguang and Fujian regions are also quite sluggish.
The reason is that, first of all, in the northeast and northwest regions, the demand for live pigs is relatively stable, and the procurement pressure of slaughtering enterprises is not large, so the market is deadlocked, and it is relatively stable. In Central China and East China, although consumer demand has improved, a large number of foreign pigs have been transferred to reduce the pressure on slaughtering enterprises, and the price reduction behavior is obvious.
In southwest and south China, due to the low demand for pickled meat and the sluggish consumer market, farmers lack confidence in the future pig price and slaughter a large number of pigs, resulting in a decline in pig prices. The main reason for the continuous deep decline in pig prices is the lack of demand for cured meat and the sluggish household consumption. The sales of white pigs in the market are poor, and the inventory in the downstream market is excessive, resulting in a bad pig price.
In addition, overcapacity is also an important reason for the downturn in the pig market. Recently, the number of large pigs slaughtered is on the high side, but the market demand is not high. In addition, there is a large inventory of pork in cold storage, and the slaughtering enterprises have the confidence to reduce prices, which makes pig prices fall continuously. In order to stabilize the pig market, the government has restarted the storage measures. As early as the beginning of January, 20,000 tons of pork were stored, and 30,000 tons were stored again yesterday.
Despite the frequent intervention of stockpilers, they have not been able to pull the price of pigs, which is mainly due to the shadow of overcapacity. After all, after 2018, large pig enterprises have begun to expand on a large scale, which has led to a sharp increase in the number of pigs. It's like a huge whirlpool that drags the pig down so deep that it makes it difficult to get back to its previous level.
Not long ago, the corn market once warmed up, as if the warm spring sun sprinkled on the fields, farmers are full of hope, that the first era of corn is coming. They are reluctant to sell and look forward to further development.
However, the good times did not last long, and soon the corn ** fell off a cliff**, and the farmers' mood was as heavy as the autumn leaves. In fact, since China Grain Reserves began to purchase corn in the northeast region, corn ** has indeed risen for a time. This has given many farmers the illusion that spring of corn is coming.
But who would have thought that this price increase was just a short-lived beautiful bloom, and it withered in the wind in an instant. At present, the overall trend of corn ** is weak, which makes many grain sellers miserable and eager to make a move. Specifically, corn in the Northeast is common with 03-1 yuan catty.
Among them, the ** in Jilin is 1125-1.165 yuan per catty, Heilongjiang is 1085-1.13 yuan, 1 in Liaoning175-1.185 yuan per catty. And for major enterprises, COFCO Longjiang's *** is 05 points, ** is 113 yuan jin; Tongliao Kailu Yuwang's ** was also lowered by 05 points, ** is 1155 yuan per catty; Suihua Haotian's ** was lowered by 03 points for 1097 yuan per catty.
Today, the cold winter in the corn market seems to be longer than expected. In this cold and windy season, the hearts of grain sellers are also crumbling like autumn leaves. They are looking forward to the arrival of spring and the time when the market can return to the sunny days. However, in the face of reality, they can only silently bear this bitterness and helplessness.
The main reason behind the decline in corn ** in Northeast China is that there has been a large-scale grain sales wave at the grassroots level. Due to the lack of confidence in the future market**, farmers have chosen to prepare their grain in cold weather** to avoid the difficulty of preserving the tide grain.
However, this collective selling behavior has given Shenzhen enterprises an opportunity to reduce prices. In contrast, the corn ** in Shandong has seen a "cliff-like" decline. The ** of many deep enterprises has fallen below 1The 2 yuan mark, the mainstream ** is at 119-1.23 yuan catty, almost the same as the ** in Inner Mongolia. This large increase is mainly due to this year's bumper corn harvest, with 13.2 million tons of autumn corn in 2023 increasing compared to the previous year, coupled with an increase in imported corn, which has doubled the pressure on the corn market. The replenishment demand of Shenzhen enterprises is insufficient, and it is naturally difficult to boost.
Looking ahead, the corn market does not look promising. I think this is just the beginning, and the market could be even more depressed in the future. With the arrival of spring, the ground grain will face the problem of difficult storage, and a large amount of corn will be sold, which will undoubtedly further pull down the corn**. In addition, the downturn in the hog market and the trend of de-capacity will also have a negative impact on corn demand. Feed demand is expected to continue to fall after the year, which will undoubtedly put more pressure on the corn market.
Recently, under the active promotion of the purchase and sale of local reserve wheat, the wheat market has seen a wave of gratifying recovery. At the same time, the reluctance of the main body to sell wheat is also rising, which undoubtedly brings some support to wheat. Under the combined effect of these two forces, wheat ** showed a strong trend. This wave of wheat ** is like a warm sun blooming in the cold winter, bringing vitality to the market.
However, although the price of wheat has risen, this does not mean that the price of wheat can usher in **. The reason why the main body of grain holds is also because their acquisition cost is 1More than 4 yuan, but the mainstream wheat price is 14-1.45 yuan, **Shang is now selling for fear of losing money and making money, so he is still waiting for the market outlook**.
However, the rotation of grain reserves in China is accelerating, the local reserves are increasing, and the first grain is continuously decreasing, in order to be able to make a quick transaction. Affected by it, many grain depots have fallen again and again, and many wheat enterprises have also begun to waver, and the price reduction mentality is obvious. Sure enough, wheat prices in many places across the country fell today, down 05-1 points, such as Longyao Jinmailang fell to 141 yuan catty, Xiongxian Wudeli fell to 1425 yuan catty, Yucheng Wudeli fell to 1405 yuan catty, Liaocheng Huatong fell to 1422 yuan jin, the developed eastern region fell to 1415 yuan jin, Xingtai Jinsha River fell to 142 yuan catty, Shenzhou Wudeli fell to 141 yuan catty, Handan Wudeli fell to 1415 yuan catty.
From the market point of view, the price reduction of wheat this time is just an appetizer, and I am afraid that it will fall as sharply as corn, after all, the price difference between the two is getting wider and wider, and it is difficult for wheat prices to continue to be strong.
It is reported that the current bran inventory pressure is huge, and the goods are blocked, which has fallen to 1,600 yuan per ton, but sales are still bleak; The demand for flour market is weak, shipments are sluggish, downstream wholesalers are not willing to purchase, the operating rate of milling enterprises has declined significantly, and many flour mills have stopped purchasing wheat. The combination of these factors has made the trend of continued decline in wheat prices more and more obvious.
Since the National Day in 2023, egg prices have embarked on a journey of ups and downs, and farmers are a little helpless in the face of this sudden market change. After all, the previous ** seems to be yesterday. Many people secretly look forward to it in their hearts, thinking that this is just a short-term downturn, however, to this day, the decline in egg prices still shows no signs of reversing, and the ** in the production area has even fallen below the 4 yuan mark.
According to the latest data, the current production area of eggs ** is 3 per catty98 yuan, down 002 yuan; The price of eggs in the sales area is 4 per catty38 yuan, down 006 yuan. In this upcoming Spring Festival, the consumption of eggs should increase with the heating up of the festive atmosphere, but why does egg prices continue to fall? In fact, the impact of market demand is not the main factor. The real reason is that the cost of breeding has dropped significantly, so that the slaughtering enterprises have more room to reduce prices. In this complex egg price puzzle, farmers need to re-examine the market dynamics in order to find a way to solve it.
The cost of corn and soybean meal has been greatly reduced, and the breakeven of eggs has also declined. The growth of the number of new laying hens and the extension of the age of old chickens have made the market have a surplus of eggs and the pressure continues to increase. At present, the break-even line for eggs has fallen to 3About 9 yuan, the price of eggs is naturally difficult. This worries many egg farmers that months of hard work may not bring the expected benefits.
What's worse is that those who used to buy eggs in large quantities were originally looking forward to the Spring Festival but are now facing huge losses. Looking ahead, eggs are likely to continue to run weakly. However, as the Chinese New Year approaches, we can expect to see the growth of eggs. Therefore, you may wish to be patient and hope to usher in a beautiful turn in the upcoming Spring Festival.
In the long river of time, the second round of refined oil price adjustment cycle in 2024 has quietly passed 6 working days. In just five days, the drop has reached a staggering 102%, like falling leaves dancing in the autumn wind, dancing the harvest and hope of the earth. This decline is equivalent to 55 yuan per ton of gasoline, indicating that a grand price reduction feast is about to begin. The ** of No. 92 oil, as if gently swaying in the autumn wind, is expected to drop by 005 yuan. It's a small number, but it has a lot of meaning. It indicates that when the price is adjusted at 24 o'clock on the 17th of this month, oil prices will usher in the first decline of this year. This decline, like the cycle of the seasons, is the embodiment of the laws of nature and the inevitable result of market supply and demand.
From the perspective of global oil prices, the international market is showing a vibrant scene, and Brent is like the rising sun, rising to 77 per barrel$59, while WTI** was a breeze and steady at $72 per barrel$24.
However, the market is unpredictable, the transportation cost of sea freight has increased like autumn leaves, and the daily output of the United States has also increased to 13.2 million barrels, filling the gap in the market. Against this backdrop, OPEC+'s plan to cut production seems unrealizable, as if a building is about to collapse.
The volatility is also like the waves of the sea, indicating that oil prices are still likely to continue to decline in the future. However, the amplitude of this ** will be limited, like a trickle of a mountain stream, and it will not make too many waves. What is the specific trend of oil prices, we need to be patient and wait for the market changes in the next few days. List of high-quality authors