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Silicone** Express - February 20: On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, it is not surprising that A-shares welcome a "good start"! More than 4,200 *** throughout the day, of which nearly 300 **daily limit, silicone concept**26%。
Back to the silicone spot market, the return to the market is more positive, based on the pre-holiday rally, the middle and downstream enterprises are more abundant, in the short term, all companies are digesting pre-sale orders, the first price is the main. In the past two days, the leading factory has been closed across the board, whether it is a single or the middle and lower reaches are a little stimulated, the market trading has picked up more rapidly, and the local monomer factory has opened the price increase in advance, DMC, raw rubber, 107 rubber have a small rise of 200-300. On the whole, the current DMC mainstream **15000 15600 yuan ton. raw rubber 16400-17000 yuan tons; 107 glue 15400-16200 yuan tons, it is expected that the DMC market will show a stable and good situation in the short term.
Cost side: After the holiday, the industrial silicon market continued to operate weakly. Specifically, in the early stage, due to the cold wave and environmental protection power rationing in the northern region, many silicon companies stopped furnaces and reduced production, and are gradually resuming production, but the southwest region is in a dry period, and the starting surface continues to be low, and the overall increase is limited. On the demand side, the new polysilicon production capacity has climbed, and the demand for industrial silicon has increased to a certain extent, but some organic silicon companies have stopped, and the procurement of industrial silicon is not strong, and the overall demand for improvement is limited. Yesterday, 421 industrial silicon**15300 15800 yuan ton, stable price operation, ** main contract (SI2404) price 13340 yuan; The first day opened down 135. In addition, the chloromethane in Shandong is 2600 yuan tons, which is 200 yuan before the holiday.
At present, silicon metal in some areas has touched the cost line, and most companies do not wait and see for the time being, and intend to wait for the first time to make plans. For monomer factories, the status quo of oversupply is difficult to change, and it may be more reliable to rely on the decline in cost to repair profits.
In terms of operating rate: at present, the Zhejiang plant of the leading factory is overhauled, and a unit in Inner Mongolia is being shut down, and other plants in Shandong, Hubei and Jiangxi are still continuing to operate with load reduction, according to market rumors, the operating rate of Xinjiang equipment has also decreased, so we estimate that the current overall operating rate should be below 70%. Subsequently, the parking device is planned to be restarted at the end of February and mid-March, and there are new devices planned to be tested, and the first end is still facing a severe test.
On the demand side: just returned to the market after the holiday, and the mentality of silicone buyers and sellers is mainly wait-and-see. In terms of transactions, due to the price negotiation of the leading closure, the delivery of orders in the early stage has been continuously delayed, which is good for other factories to receive orders after the holiday, and the current transaction situation of various spot single factories is acceptable. However, there is a certain amount of stock before the downstream holiday, and the terminal consumer market is still starting, and most of the goods are just needed to replenish the warehouse, and the large quantities are less stocked, and the market is more bullish.
On the whole, although many companies have prepared sufficient inventory before the holiday, but the logistics and transportation of the main manufacturers are limited, and the time of the Chinese New Year is late this year, this week's resumption of work will enter the traditional "Golden Three" peak season non-stop, although last year's Golden Three is a bit stretched, but the downstream should still be prepared, and with the current **, the risk of stocking is basically controllable. To sum up, during this period after the holiday, under the closure of the leading main force, a rare opportunity to explore the rise, if the rhythm of the middle and lower reaches of stocking is relatively smooth, the major monomer factories are bound to seize this round of dividends, repair the state to cope with the more brutal competition behind, and it is expected that the silicone market will be stable and strong in the short term. (The above information is only for exchange and sharing, not as a basis for trading, silicone**edit,**please indicate**.)
Mainstream**
DMC: 15000-15600 yuan ton;
107 glue: 15400-16200 yuan ton;
Ordinary raw rubber: 16400-17000 yuan tons;
Polymer raw rubber: 17500-17800 yuan ton.
Precipitation compound: 15000-15800 yuan ton;
Gas-phase rubber compound: 21500-23500 yuan tons;
Domestic silicone oil: 16,500-18,000 yuan ton;
Imported silicone oil: 19,500-20,500 yuan ton;
Pyrolysate DMC: 13300-13800 yuan ton (excluding tax);
Silicone oil for pyrolysis: 14,500-15,000 yuan ton (excluding tax);
Waste silicone (burr): 5000-5200 yuan ton (excluding tax).
The transaction price is high and low, you need to confirm with the manufacturer's inquiry, the above ** is for reference only, not as a basis for trading. (*Statistical time: February 20).