Valuations have indeed reached the bottom compared to history. Taking the index as an example, yesterday's P/E ratio was 2539 times, the price-to-earnings ratio at 585 in 2012 was 0 at 263 times, which is already a record low, and of course, the growth rate is not as fast as it was back then. The price-to-earnings ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is 2629 times, the same as the GEM of that year. Considering that semiconductors account for a large proportion of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and semiconductors are obviously a strong cyclical industry, they are now in the trough of the cycle. If the recovery of the future cycle is combined with the increase in valuation, the proper Davis double-clicks. This should be a great historical opportunity for many to change their fate. However, I personally maintain the original judgment: the science and technology innovation board will wait for Brother Hua to put out the EUV, and then lead the country's semiconductor brothers into the world, like photovoltaic silicon wafers, occupying 95% of the global market share.
A few indicators that have bottomed out.
1. Most of the ** are in the undervalued area.
2. The transaction has shrunk to about one-tenth of the previous day, which is my personal summary of more than 20 years of experience. The daily volume of this round is 17 trillion, that is to say, the market turnover will drop to 200 billion or even lower. It is best to run such a transaction level for a period of time before appearing, when the discount rate will be more ideal, the chance of winning will be a little greater, the short-term is not easy to set, and the long-term yield is higher.
In terms of quantity and energy, it is still far behind. It shows that all kinds of investors are very gambling, have not despaired, and still try to turn losses or even profits through frequent transactions, which basically cannot be successful.
3. The leverage cleanup is basically in place. The basic clean-up of structured products was completed, and the financing basically did not fall, with 3731 hours of 15 trillion is basically the same, very weird. Financing plus principal is more than 3 trillion holdings. There are also 2 equity pledges57 trillion, many shareholders do not want to increase the collateral at all, the strong equality is in disguise, and there is no need to pay interest from now on, why not. **The redemption rate is about 20% based on historical experience, and it is far from being reached. Private placement liquidation, the news of Lao Wang's loss of contact just came out over the weekend, indicating that some began to liquidate. On the whole, the leverage cleanup has reached the mid-stage, and the further it goes, the more brutal it becomes. Now is the time to really put investment management skills to the test.
* May also fall, at least in this position for a long time grinding.
On the whole, it takes several years for the Shanghai Stock Exchange to reshape the market, return to valuation, clean up leverage, educate investors and many other heavy tasks in the SSE at 2500-2900, the index at 1200-1700, and the STAR Market at 500-800.
There is no need for the Shanghai Composite Index to fall to 2000 points (if the market is not bailed out, there is a high probability), and it will hit 2500+ protective disks, which is almost.