The property market releases two major negative energies People who are ready to buy a house need to pay close attention
From the beginning of 2023 to February 2024, mortgage rates and down payment ratios in several regions fell to record lows due to bailout policies. In addition, many regions have also launched housing subsidy policies, which undoubtedly bring real benefits to home buyers. Against this backdrop, many home buyers are starting to enter the real estate market.
In recent years, the market has accumulated a large number of first-time home buyers and improved home buyers. With the gradual relaxation of the home purchase policy, these home buyers finally got a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy a home. Nowadays, the market is sufficient, whether it is the new housing market or the second-hand housing market, there is a phenomenon of short supply. This means that buyers now have plenty of time to choose not only the home they want, but also the ability to choose from a large number of properties to find the one that best suits their needs.
This is undoubtedly good news for those who are ready to buy a home. In the past, the real estate market often presented a situation where a house was hard to find, expensive and limited. Nowadays, home buyers can choose from a relaxed political environment and abundant **, which undoubtedly adds a lot of convenience and fun to their home buying journey.
At the beginning of 2024, the positive effect of housing market policies will gradually wane. On the one hand, the attractiveness of the policy is waning as the number of new home buyers decreases; On the other hand, the public has gradually adapted to the regulatory measures, further weakening the impact of the policy. Without more influential bailout policies, the current property market policy is unlikely to attract a large number of home buyers.
Some people may think that since countries around the world are interested in saving the real estate market, more powerful rescue policies may be introduced in the future. But it seems to me that the situation is not necessarily so rosy. Although the current property market policy has been relaxed, it is still followed"Housing is not speculation"principles. In other words, even if a new policy is introduced, its stimulus effect will still be affected"Housing is not speculation"The limitations of the principle, the practical effect remains to be seen. Therefore, the future trend of the property market and the effect of the policy still need to be viewed cautiously. For example, Zou Lan, director of the monetary policy department of the People's Bank of China, said.
In the spirit of"Houses are for living, not for speculation"In principle, the financial sector will cooperate with relevant departments and local governments to ensure the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood and stability, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, and continue to create a financial environment conducive to the orderly resolution of industry risks. Considering that the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market has undergone profound changes, and there is marginal room for optimization of policies successively introduced in the long-term overheating stage of the market in the past, the financial sector will actively cooperate with relevant departments to strengthen policy research, implement policies according to the city, improve the accuracy of policies, better support the rigid demand for housing and improvement demand, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
In other words, the current property market policy is still adhered to"Houses are for living, not for speculation"This is the core idea. However, the main purpose of the current policy is to prevent the property market from overcooling, so most of the soft measures are aimed at stabilizing the property market. Therefore, in the coming period, the property market trend is expected to remain stable, and the trend of housing prices will also tend to be stable, which is undoubtedly good news for buyers who just need to buy a house.
While the current situation in the real estate market is favorable for buyers who are just looking for a home, there are two unfavorable news coming out of the real estate market that may force house prices**. For new home buyers who are ready to buy a home, these two points need to be extra vigilant.
1.The inventory of new and resale homes is increasing, while home buyers are becoming more cautious.
Houses play an important role in people's lives and have many peculiarities, but at the end of the day, a house is still an asset that is ultimately up to people to buy. After nearly 30 years of rapid development, China's real estate industry has solved the problem of housing resource shortage. According to central bank data, more than 97% of urban households in China now own a home, with an average of more than 15 properties. Considering the urbanization rate of 44% of households and the urbanization rate of 67% of the permanent population, the housing owned by urban households is sufficient for all urban residents. Therefore, China's housing resources have been in surplus on the whole, but most of them are concentrated in the hands of some people, with these people's real estate, the market will face a situation of short supply, this phenomenon has begun to appear.
In the past two years, housing prices have continued to be **, and many cities and regions have seen significant ** house prices. Owning a property can result in a loss due to house prices**, which can be significant if you add in the cost of owning a property. Against this backdrop, investors and home buyers have become more cautious, with fewer home buyers, more sellers, and a continued rise in inventory in the real estate market, increasing competition between second-hand and new homes, which bodes well for more challenging sales in the real estate market in 2024. As a result, developers and second-hand home owners will have to adopt price reductions and ** strategies to attract home buyers.
2. The financing scale of real estate enterprises has been greatly reduced, the debt pressure is high, and the pressure on the capital chain is huge.
Since 2023, the property market policy has been gradually relaxed, and the financing environment for real estate enterprises has improved compared with the previous two years, but real estate companies are still facing problems such as tight capital chains and high debt pressure. The main reason for this situation is that the growth rate of the new housing market has slowed down this year, and the sales performance of real estate companies has not met expectations. Weak sales have made it difficult for real estate companies to withdraw funds, and debt levels remain high, forming a vicious circle.
According to statistics, the scale of investment by developers in 2023 has dropped significantly, and the investment in the real estate sector in the region as a whole has also decreased significantly. This shows that more and more real estate companies are looking to transform and expand into other areas. In order to reduce debt and cope with financial pressure, many real estate companies have started first-class projects. For example, Pan Shiyi is about 320,000 square meters of real estate, with proceeds used to reduce debt; Zhenro Group will 25.3 billion shares were transferred to Fujian Reignwood Group to repay debts. These actions demonstrate the determination of real estate companies to survive in difficult times.
It can be seen that the main task of real estate enterprises in 2024 is to quickly withdraw funds. In addition to the direct transfer of projects, price reduction** has also become an inevitable choice for real estate companies. with"No speculation"With the popularization of the concept, home buyers have become more rational in their decision-making. At present, the market is sufficient, and the real estate market is gradually transforming into a buyer's market, which brings greater benefits to home buyers. Therefore, it is wise for real estate companies to choose to reduce prices and attract more buyers by adjusting**.
Based on the above analysis, it can be seen that although the current property market recovery is weak, the downward trend is obvious, and there is still room for housing prices. Especially in third- and fourth-tier cities and regions, housing prices remain high, population continues to lose, and housing prices are more likely. For those who are interested in buying a home, it is time to proceed with caution. Given that house prices are still high, the wrong choice could jeopardize asset depreciation. Therefore, buyers should do their research and preparation before making a decision to ensure that they are buying a quality property that meets their needs.