Just now, A-shares reproduced an unforgettable scene!
In early trading today, the number of *** in the whole market once fell to 150, while the number of *** exceeded 5,000. The top ** by market capitalization is almost all **, and most of the ** with the lowest market capitalization is down limit. As of press time, the GEM index fell to 37%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 316%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 421%, more than 1,000 shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell to the limit. It is worth noting that in early trading today, although the index fell across the board, the A50 futures index rose sharply, rising by more than 1% at one point. There are really some problems with this kind of disk.
According to the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration on February 5, on the afternoon of February 1, the State Administration of Financial Supervision held a symposium on the work of the system to listen to the opinions and suggestions of members of the democratic parties in the system of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the party's overall leadership over the work, broaden the channels for the members of the democratic parties in the General Administration system to express their suggestions and suggestions, and reasonably transform the results of their suggestions. We should give full play to the important magic weapon of the united front in the new era, build consensus on financial supervision, gather strong forces for high-quality financial development, and unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics.
So, when will the market turn around?
A-shares have changed dramatically. Just now, the CSI 1000 ETF fell by more than 6%. At the same time, the SSE 50 ETF is relatively strong. The A50 futures index rose even stronger, once exceeding 1%. PetroChina once rose more than 3%, and China Shenhua and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China once rose nearly 2%.
From a structural point of view, the A** field is in a liquidity dilemma. Today, the entire market once fell to more than 1,000, and more than 3,600 fell by more than 7%. The three major indexes fell sharply across the board. The siphon caused by the prefix ** to the market is further intensified. It's reminiscent of a scene eight years ago, when short-term market shocks made it difficult for investors to adapt.
From the perspective of financing, as of February 2, the balance of A-share margin financing and securities lending was 15,2364.1 billion yuan, compared with 15,545 in the previous trading day8.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3094.5 billion yuan. Wind data statistics show that the financing amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on that day was 5012.1 billion yuan, compared with 426 in the previous trading day9 billion yuan; The repayment of the financing was 7925.7 billion yuan, compared with 541 in the previous trading day$5.4 billion; The selling volume of securities borrowing and lending on the day was 158.9 billion shares, compared to 150.6 billion shares.
Judging from the news, according to Caixin, the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Service PMI) for January 2024, released on February 5, recorded 527, down from 0 in the previous month2 percentage points, the second highest in the past six months, indicating that the growth momentum of the service industry in the first month of 2024 is still strong.
In addition, WuXi AppTec, which has recently been in trouble, also released an open letter from the management team to customers, stating that the company has always adhered to the core values of "doing the right thing, doing the right thing", and even if it has been subjected to some unfounded and misleading accusations recently, WuXi AppTec's core values will not waver. Recently, there was a proposed draft legislation in the U.S. Congress that mentions WuXi AppTec. The draft legislation is still under consideration, and we are actively communicating with relevant parties to clarify the unfounded and misleading allegations against the company. We believe that when fully informed of the facts, members of the U.S. Congress will understand that WuXi AppTec does not pose a risk to any country. In fact, WuXi AppTec has been making important contributions to the healthcare industry.
The latest statement from the State Administration of Financial Regulation
According to today's news from the official WeChat of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, on the afternoon of February 1, 2024, the State Administration of Financial Supervision held a symposium on the work of the system, conscientiously studied and implemented the important ideas of the general secretary on doing a good job in the party's united front work in the new era, and listened to the opinions and suggestions of members of the democratic parties in the system of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration. Zhou Liang, member of the party committee and deputy director of the bureau, attended the meeting and delivered a speech, and representatives of members of the democratic parties of the General Administration system and responsible persons of relevant departments and bureaus of the General Administration attended the forum.
The meeting pointed out that the General Administration system should resolutely unify thoughts and actions to the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the spirit of the first financial work conference and the spirit of the first work conference, learn and understand thoroughly, and earnestly implement it. Adhere to the party's overall leadership over the work, broaden the channels for the members of the democratic parties in the General Administration system to express their suggestions and suggestions, and reasonably transform the results of their suggestions. We should give full play to the important magic weapon of the united front in the new era, build consensus on financial supervision, gather strong forces for high-quality financial development, and unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics.
Is there a turnaround in the market?
So, is there a turnaround in the market?
CITIC** believes that there must be strong external intervention or reversal of expected actual policy measures to restore market confidence. At present, the A** market is once again in the process of negative feedback of liquidity cycle chain, which has little to do with domestic economic fundamentals and external geopolitical disturbances, and the deterioration of the trading ecology is the main reason. February is an important observation period to interrupt negative feedback or the continuous release of risks, and strong external intervention or reversal of expected actual policy measures must be required to restore market confidence.
In terms of allocation, it is currently recommended to continue to focus on high-quality bonus blue chips. There is a kind of "leveling" to support the bottom, the conservative position adjustment of institutions and the low-volatility and high-dividend sectors of central enterprises catalyzed by the assessment reform of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission are the main lines of the most consensus at present. After the negative feedback is blocked, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the high-performing blue-chip varieties in the technology, pharmaceutical, and new energy sectors whose valuations have been further revised down due to liquidity shocks in the early stage.
Valuations of the A** market have fallen further, while risk premiums have remained elevated. The seesaw effect of stocks and bonds was still obvious last week, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds falling to the lowest since 2002, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds falling rapidly, and market valuations continuing to fall. As of February 2, the CSI 300 P/E ratio (excluding negative values) was only 101 times for the last five years 12% quantile; The CSI 300 risk premium (1 P/E ratio – 10-year Treasury yield) is 71%, reaching the highest level in nearly five years, reflecting that the recent market sentiment has fallen to the "freezing point".
Huaxi ** believes that the overall risk of A-share equity pledge is controllable, and the negative feedback effect of capital is the main concern. As of the end of January, the market value of A** field pledge was 26 trillion yuan, accounting for 32%, mainly private enterprises. In terms of industries, the industries with a high pledge ratio of more than 30% are in the pharmaceutical, chemical and real estate industries. In comparison, in November 2018, the market value of A-share pledge was 46 trillion yuan, accounting for about 10% of the total market value of A-shares, that is, the current A-share pledge risk has been significantly reduced compared with the end of 2018, and the overall risk is controllable. Year-to-date, the overall performance of the A** field is poor, with only 5% of the total A*** and the median change of *258%。At present, the pledge risk is much smaller than in 2018, but the concern about the negative feedback effect of the capital side and the approaching Spring Festival holiday will make the market more cautious.
Editor-in-charge: Yang Yucheng.
Proofreading: Li**.
Millions of users are watchingGood weekend! Huawei is heavy, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Supreme People's Procuratorate speak out! Top 10 news from the weekend that affects the market for the week.
Just now, the Supreme Procuratorate spoke! Sha Yan, chairman of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange! This morning, 3 trillion"Yangcheng", suddenly shot! Negotiations start! The latest announcement of the White House of the United States illegal and bad information report**: 0755-83514034 E-mail: bwb@stcncom