In the context of today's global integration, the layout of capital in the international market has gradually become the consensus of many investors. So, what are the potential investment opportunities in overseas and commodity markets in 2024? In this regard, Song Qing, general manager of the international business department of Sino Analytica, said that in 2024, it is recommended that everyone pay attention to ** and overseas income real estate**.
Qing Song is the Manager of Sino Oil & Gas Energy, Sino Analytica Global Earnings Real Estate and Sino Select Value. In 2023, the 3 QDIIs he manages will receive positive returns for the whole year, and all of them will pay dividends.
Song Qing said that in the past year, the world has experienced inflation in overseas developed markets, the ups and downs of geopolitical events, and the slow recovery of the domestic market, and investors have felt like a roller coaster. At present, the U.S. monetary interest rate has been higher than the inflation level, which has played a restraining role in inflation, but the disturbance of energy commodities has intensified.
As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, Song Qing believes that the Fed is expected to maintain the current policy rate level until it sees weaker economic data, especially the easing of supply-demand tensions in the job market, or volatility in financial markets that significantly affects economic expectations.
From the perspective of investment, Song Qing said that the fluctuation of long-term interest rates caused by the mismatch between supply and demand of short-term U.S. bonds will still fluctuate gold prices; Before the inflection point of the U.S. target interest rate, the U.S. economic growth expectation and the trend of long-term interest rates and real interest rates will still be a balancing performance; In addition, Europe is facing greater pressure on economic growth, or the United States may start to cut interest rates before the United States, and it is not ruled out that the dollar index may rebound, but subject to the expectation of falling interest rates, the dollar has limited room for recovery. If the investment period is extended to one year or more, the probability of economic growth in the United States beginning to slow down or the risk of the financial system recurring in the future will gradually rise, due to risk aversion, will increase the demand for the highest level, and the level of interest rates in the United States will eventually fall from a high level, superimposed on the increase in political uncertainty such as the United States, as well as the long-term logical support of the central bank's gold purchases, the future is expected to enter a new round of upward cycle.
In addition, from the perspective of the entire U.S. stock market, the energy industry lags behind other industries in terms of performance growth due to a high base. From the perspective of internal structure, beta** turns into structural**; With the improvement of the operating and financial situation of energy companies, they will increase investment in energy equipment and services. It is expected that the scale of the energy service market will likely continue to grow, and the middle and upper reaches of natural gas are likely to maintain a high investment boom in the next two years.
In Song Qing's view, REITs have both ** attributes and bond attributes, and in 2024, in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut, REITs resonate with stocks and debts, and are expected to perform better than the ** market.