The current property market is too interesting, it is not easy for state-owned enterprises to sell houses, and the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies have also declined significantly, according to the data, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies last year was 627 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 173%, due to the high cost of involution and land auction, the business of developing houses has become a small profit or even a loss-making operation.
According to wind data, as of February 1, 54 A-share companies have released 2023 performance forecasts, of which only 6 are expected to achieve positive net profit growth for the whole year; Although 8 real estate companies are profitable, their profitability has declined, and their net profits have fallen by more than 50% year-on-year; The performance of 49 real estate companies decreased year-on-year, of which 34 real estate companies had a net profit pre-loss, with a total pre-loss of about 48.6 billion yuan to 73 billion yuan. This loss volume is far greater than the scale of profits, obviously, in the last year can make money of real estate companies can be said to be rare, most of the real estate companies are facing the embarrassment of losses.
Taking Greenland as an example, in the announcement issued by Greenland on January 30, the company achieved an operating income of about 360 billion yuan, but it is expected that the net loss in 2023 will be between 7 billion and 9 billion, while in the same period in 2022, Greenland recorded a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of 10100 million yuan, from earning 10 small goals to losing nearly 100 small goals, how uncomfortable this gap is, I am afraid that only Greenland itself and Greenland employees can really feel it. Greenland also said that the reasons for the loss, one is the continuous decline in the real estate market, which has led to the decline of their assets; The second is the downturn in related upstream and downstream industries such as real estate and infrastructure, and the difficulties that have lasted for three years have not been effectively improved, resulting in a year-on-year decline in corporate operating income, a decline in gross profit margin, and continued pressure on performance.
Therefore, the situation facing the regulation and control now is that the pressure on real estate companies has been in front, because we have also said before that the first half of this year is still the peak period for real estate companies to repay their debts, if there is no sustained and stable sales revenue, the risk of default of these real estate companies will inevitably continue to intensify, and may even trigger a chain reaction, after all, some time ago Evergrande has begun to enter the liquidation stage, this is a signal flare, there is no big enough to fail the real estate companies, Evergrande is so, and other real estate companies are also the same. The recent bailout policy has also become more frequent and stimulating, and on January 26, the real estate financing coordination mechanism deployment meeting was called, and the first batch of project lists have been landed. At the same time, Guangzhou loosened the city's 120 square meters to the upper limit of purchase, Shanghai loosened the threshold for single house purchases in the suburbs, and Suzhou released all purchase restrictions, so there will be a short-term stimulus, but it is still relatively difficult to continue.
According to the monitoring data of the China Index Institute, the sales area of new houses in the key 100 cities in January 2024 decreased by 13% year-on-year, and the absolute scale was at the lowest level in the same period since 2016. Therefore, real estate companies have actually slowly discovered that there is no sales volume as the basis, and it is not of much significance to keep their so-called **, and the central mother has always said that the banks and financial institutions under the bottom will give financing to real estate enterprises, but the banks are not stupid, and they are still willing to give money to those state-owned enterprises or mixed real estate enterprises with higher security, and will not give those thunderstorm real estate companies or enterprises that have already had a crisis, which has also caused many real estate companies to make matters worse, and the original delivery of the building is even more difficult, because there is no operation to exchange price for quantity, real estate companies are also powerless.
Many people may not know that in the craziest era of the property market, the number of our real estate companies was as high as more than 60,000, but after the reshuffle in recent years, the number of real estate companies left now is only more than 10,000. In the United States, for example, there are only 500 real estate developers registered as independent legal persons. There were experts before, we only need 10 real estate companies in the future, and this year's performance of our property market is double 11, that is, the sales area is 11100 million square meters, commercial housing sales of 116 trillion yuan, and according to the industry's best words, the future real estate market will be maintained at a scale of about 10 trillion, with reference to the market share of about 6% of the head real estate enterprises in developed countries, the sales scale of the head real estate enterprises will be about 600 billion, so, with the failure of the three high model, many real estate companies are facing transformation or even direct bankruptcy.
So in fact, it is not how powerful the vision and strength of the real estate companies themselves are, but this era has created so many tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of real estate companies, the king of the past continues to appear, and then the water continues to rise, customers buy houses to buy cool, real estate companies sell houses to sell cool, and the local land is counted to hand cramps, but this model of high leverage and high turnover is no longer suitable for the current environment, the market is constantly shrinking and shuffling, and good land plots that can be developed are becoming more and more scarce. The outer suburbs can't be pulled over by the concept and a few subway stations, and it is difficult to build a city.
You know, Guangzhou has taken nearly 20 years to create the Zhujiang New Town CBD, other cities have the financial resources and durability, it is estimated that it will be more difficult, so you can also see that many of the first few years of the first prison of the house speculators are in the so-called new district, new city to buy a house, attracted and bound by the concept of the future, but real estate companies are gradually cautious to take land and development, as an ordinary buyer, or to think about how much leverage can be increased, speculation to get rich may only exist in the past.