To 13.6 billion urban insured retirees and nearly 1For the 6.5 billion urban and rural residents who actually receive basic pension benefits, the level of basic pension will be directly related to whether they can enjoy sufficient basic living security in their later years. According to the data, in 2022, the average monthly per capita basic pension of retirees participating in China's urban employee pension insurance will be about 3,600 yuan; The average monthly per capita basic pension level of the actual recipients of pension insurance for urban and rural residents is about 200 yuan.In 2023, the basic pension of retirees will usher in "19 consecutive increases".In May 2023, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on the Adjustment of the Basic Pension for Retirees in 2023, which clarified the scope of adjustment, the level of adjustment and the adjustment method to be adopted. It is understood that this is the 19th consecutive ** since the state issued the "Decision on Improving the Basic Pension Insurance System for Enterprise Employees" in 2005, that is, "19 consecutive increases".
Below, we take the adjustment plan of Henan Province as a reference to interpret it in detail.
1. Scope of adjustment: Retirees from enterprises and institutions who have gone through retirement procedures in accordance with the regulations and receive basic pensions on a monthly basis before December 31, 2022; 2. Adjustment method: In 2023, Henan Province will continue to adopt three adjustment methods that combine quota, linkage and tilt, and the specific adjustment plan is as follows:
Quota adjustment: 35 yuan per person per month, that is, all retirees within the scope of the adjustment will be issued an additional 35 yuan per month on the basis of the basic pension issued by individuals, and the original 3,000 yuan monthly pension will reach 3,035 yuan per month after the fixed adjustment; Linked adjustment: The part of the adjustment linked to the payment period will be increased by 1 per month for every 1 year according to the payment period (including the deemed payment period, excluding the converted length of service).2 yuan standard calculation and issuance; The part that is adjusted in connection with the basic pension level will be adjusted according to 11 Calculate the increase.
Assuming that before the adjustment, the basic pension of a retiree in December 2022 is 3,000 yuan per month, and the payment period is 15 years. Then, the part of the increase linked to the payment period is 18 yuan per month; The part of the adjustment linked to the basic pension level is 33 yuan per month;
Tilt adjustment: On the basis of general adjustment, and then increase the basic pension of elderly retirees according to certain standards, the plan for the tilt adjustment of elderly retirees in Henan Province is as follows: as of December 31, 2022, 70 74-year-old retirees, each person will increase by 25 yuan per month; 75 Retirees aged 79 will receive an additional $30 per month each; 70 Retirees aged 84 will receive an additional $40 per month each; 85 Retirees aged 89 will receive an additional $50 per month each; Retirees aged 90 and above will receive an additional $60 per person per month.
Suppose a 72-year-old retiree in Henan Province has a cumulative payment period of 15 years, and the monthly basic pension level in December 2022 is 3,000 yuan. So, after the basic pension survey in 2023, how much has the pension increased every month? That is, the additional part of the fixed adjustment + the additional part of the adjustment linked to the payment period + the additional part of the adjustment linked to the basic pension level + the additional part of the inclined adjustment = 35 + 18 + 33 + 25 = 111 yuan.
Why do pensions be**? In 2024, can it usher in "20 consecutive rises"? From the policy level, in the above-mentioned "Decision on Improving the Basic Pension Insurance System for Enterprise Employees", the state clearly states that it is necessary to establish a normal adjustment mechanism for basic pensions, and adjust the basic pension level of enterprise retirees in a timely manner according to changes in employee wages and prices, so as to ensure the basic living needs of retirees aged 60 and above.
Based on this, taking into account factors such as the growth of the average salary of on-the-job employees in 2023, price changes, and the demand for basic old-age security, it is not difficult for us to ** In 2024, the basic pension level of retirees will most likely continue to be appropriately adjusted, that is, it will usher in the "20 consecutive increases" since 2005. When will it rise? How much will it go up?
First of all, to popularize a little bit, the current adjustment policy of China's basic pension for retirees is often based on an annual cycle, that is, the adjustment plan issued in 2023 is calculated from January 1, 2023, and the basic pension level of retirees will be compared with the previous year throughout the year, rather than raising a certain month or a certain month. As for when the adjustment notice and details will be announced, it is still subject to the actual situation. However, judging from the situation in the past five years, the time for the Ministry of Human Resources to issue adjustment notices is mostly concentrated in the months of each year, and the time for the detailed adjustment rules to be issued in various places is mostly concentrated in months, and a handful of them will require that the additional part be issued in place before the end of the month in which the detailed rules are released.
So, if the basic pension of retirees in 2024 ushers in "20 consecutive increases", what will be the increase? Based on the trend of adjusting the proportion in previous years and the actual situation of national economic growth in 2023, we can make a reasonable **.
Looking back at the average adjustment level of the basic pension of retirees in the last five years, the overall adjustment level in 2019 was about 5% of the monthly per capita basic pension in 2018; The overall adjustment level in 2020 is about 5% of the monthly per capita basic pension in 2019; By analogy, the adjustment ratio for 2021 is 45%；The adjustment level in 2022 will be about 4%; The adjusted level for 2023 is 38%。In 2023, China's economic growth rate will be about 5%, and the average annual wage level of employees in urban private units will increase by 8 percent year-on-year3%, so we ** in 2024 the basic pension for retirees will increase by 4 5%.
However, it is worth mentioning that because the economic development status of different provinces and cities is not the same, the specific adjustment range may also be different. Moreover, the income and expenditure of local basic pension insurance will also affect the actual adjustment to a certain extent. Therefore, for different regions, it is still subject to the detailed adjustment rules announced by each locality.
Conclusion
Overall, on the basis of the annual adjustment of the basic pension level, the basic pension of retirees in 2024 is likely to usher in "20 consecutive increases", but the specific adjustment plan is not yet known. However, one thing is certain, according to the incentive mechanism of "pay more and get more, pay more for a long time", the longer the payment period and the higher the basic pension level, the higher the amount of adjustment and additional issuance. Therefore, the author still recommends that the in-service insured personnel pay more and pay long-term pension insurance, so that not only the basic pension received after retirement is more, but also in the process of annual adjustment, the additional part of the pension will be relatively more.