Key takeaways:
Spending growth momentum in 2024 with higher profit margins:Schlumberger reiterated its view that "further growth in demand is expected in 2024 and will continue to support the ongoing multi-year investment cycle." The company set an international operating income growth rate of about 15% (both onshore and offshore) and a growth rate of about 5% in North America, and said "there will be upside in 2024 and margins will continue to expand". Halliburton said "oilfield services fundamentals remain strong" and that international capex will grow in the low double digits this year, with "business set to grow for many years," driven by the Middle East and Asia. The company expects revenue and margins in North America to be "essentially flat." This is in line with our view on global oil capex and the positive view we hold on the global oil services sector.
Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for LNG increased in 2024, but there is a risk of delays in U.S. LNG licensing:Baker Hughes said "the FID outlook for the next few years remains strong" and expects FIDs to be 65 million tonnes per annum this year (57 million tonnes per annum in 2023), 30 million tonnes to 60 million tonnes per annum in 2025 and 2026, and possibly 12.5 billion tonnes to 18.5 billion tonnes per year, and reiterated that LNG capacity will reach 800 million tonnes per year by the end of 2030, an increase of 75% from 2022, as detailed in Figure 4. The company acknowledges that there may be a delay in the U.S. LNG plan, but believes there is "no adverse impact in the long term". This was good news for JGC Corporation (JGC, 1963 JP).
No geopolitical implications:Schlumberger argues"While geopolitical tensions persist in some regions, these impacts are not expected to have any significant impact on business in 2024 unless tensions escalate further".。Bullish on offshore; Increased Final Investment Decisions (FIDs): Schlumberger's capex growth momentum is strong in 2024, with global offshore FIDs likely to exceed $100 billion in 2024 and 2025. The company believes that there will be growth not only in 2024, but also into 2025 and beyond. "This is good for CNOOC (601808 CH).
Increasing dividends and ongoing buybacks:Most global oil service companies have raised their dividends and intend to continue their buybacks this year.
Key takeaways:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the decline in China's consumer goods exports narrowed significantly. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the growth rate of China's consumer goods exports narrowed to -3% under the US dollar, showing positive signs of recovery compared with -11% in the third quarter, especially the food and beverage sector has seen positive growth of 2%, and the export growth rate of the home appliances and furniture sector is also about to turn positive. Exports from the pharmaceutical, textile and garment sectors also showed a narrowing downward trend. Washing machines and beer are impressive, while sneakers, clothing and sofas are worth paying attention to. Although the global contraction** has had an impact on China's overall and consumer goods exports, there are cyclical differences in the performance of various sub-sectors in export markets. The home appliance sector has shown a steady recovery due to its leading advantages and low base, especially white appliances, black appliances and small kitchen appliances; In the light industry sector, mattresses and office furniture continued to maintain a growth trend, and the growth rate of sofas also ushered in a positive turning point; In the food and beverage sector, beer exports continued to increase in the Asian market by virtue of their ** and taste advantages after the abolition of the double anti-tax on Australian wheat products.
U.S. inflation is halfway down, and replenishment is already on the horizon. The year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in the United States has fallen below 4% in December, and the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, which will have a linkage effect on the slow recovery of the global economy. At the same time, the year-on-year decline in U.S. consumer imports narrowed, combined with the increase in year-on-year retail sales and the decline in wholesaler and retail inventory levels, indicating that the market may be gradually transitioning from the destocking stage to the replenishment stage.
The ASEAN consumer goods market is expanding, and China is expected to continue to make efforts. The Asian market is an important destination for China's consumer goods exports, accounting for more than half of the total exports, of which the proportion of exports to ASEAN continues to rise. In recent years, ASEAN countries have maintained economic growth of more than 4%, and strong consumer demand has benefited from rapid population growth and the expansion of young consumer groups. In addition, the most advanced agreements actively promoted between China and ASEAN, such as the RCEP, have lowered the barriers and improved the interconnection of markets. At the same time, China's manufacturing capacity is shifting to ASEAN, enhancing its competitiveness in local consumer goods.
Key takeaways:
The certainty of the silicon carbide industry trend continues to increase. With the improvement of pure electric penetration, high-voltage fast charging technology has gradually become the standard configuration of high-end vehicles and extended to lower ** band, on the one hand, silicon carbide power devices in high-voltage fast charging and other application scenarios itself has greater performance advantages of high temperature resistance, high voltage resistance and high frequency resistance, and at the same time, silicon carbide power devices have gained a certain product awareness in the hearts of consumers; On the other hand, with the accelerated expansion of major manufacturers and the improvement of technical level, the cost of upstream substrates and epitaxial materials has been decreasing, and the decline in technological progress and scale effect is the core factor to stimulate the penetration of the silicon carbide market.
It is difficult to make breakthroughs in silicon carbide materials, processes and applicationsThe domestic industrial chain has not yet formed a complete closed loopIt is necessary for the whole industry chain to work together to promote low-cost, high-quality, and large-scale industrialization. Insufficient production capacity, insufficient yield, and many product defects at the upstream material level will affect the reliability and yield of the device, which will cause difficulties in the use of the application level, and there is not enough demand and data at the application level to provide support for the cost reduction and technical process improvement of upstream materials and devices. At present, the leading manufacturers have entered the material chain of overseas manufacturers, but there is still a certain gap between them and overseas manufacturers in terms of yield, high-quality conductive type, and large size. The downstream wafer and device module end are relatively slow, and domestic manufacturers have made great breakthroughs in the industrial field, while there is still a distance to enter the main inverter of new energy vehicles, which requires the whole industry chain to work together to promote low-cost, high-quality and large-scale industrialization, which is inseparable from the upstream materials to improve the yield and improve the process, but also inseparable from the downstream device module, and also inseparable from the localization of equipment factories to reduce costs.
Key takeaways:
Technological advantages and cost advantages build the company's competitive barriers. Relying on its technological and cost advantages, the company will achieve sales of 3.02 million new energy vehicles in 2023, becoming the leader in the Chinese automobile market and the global new energy vehicle market. In terms of technical advantages, the company relies on the DMI DMP hybrid architecture, DMO hybrid off-road platform, and pure electric exclusive platform E30 and the advantages of blade batteries have laid a leading position in the industry. In terms of cost, the company not only relies on the vertical chain system and leading technology to reduce costs, but more importantly, the cost reduction effect brought by scale advantages. The company's current sales volume is on the left side of the Maxi-Silberstone curve, with a cost of about 1220,000 vehicles, in the process of increasing the scale of production and sales in the future, the cost of bicycles is expected to continue to decline, and the net profit of bicycles will show a non-linear growth.
The deep price reduction space and product power advantages have helped the sales of basic properties to rise steadily. (0-10] 10,000 ** range, the company's sales volume last year reached 2250,000, accounting for 19% of the new energy market share and 9% of the terminal market share. Benefiting from the increase in the penetration rate of new energy in the first belt, the expansion of Seagull model sales is expected to increase the company's share in the first belt. The high-end brand image has been initially established, and the product matrix has been continuously filled. The company has built a high-end pattern of high-end brand Denza, professional personalized brand Equation Leopard and luxury brand looking up. (30-50] In the range of 10,000 **, the company's market share is expected to further increase depending on the enrichment of the product matrix of DENZA and Equation Leopard, and the platform upgrade of DENZA SUV series products.
Overseas export space is broad, self-owned transportation and local factories to increase production capacity. From a short-term perspective, the company expects to deliver 8 ro-ro ships by 2025, and it can be estimated that the capacity in 2024 will be about 170,000. In addition to the total production capacity of 200,000 units at the Uzbekistan plant in Thailand, which will be put into operation in 2024, an increase of about 370,000 units, the company expects short-term exports of about 600,000 units. From a long-term perspective, BYD will face direct competition with global automakers such as Volkswagen and Toyota in non-East Asia, South Asia, North America, and Western Europe, and BYD's market share is expected to be about 10%, taking into account the company's technological and cost advantages in the field of new energy, and the market share of Suzuki Motors of the same size. In terms of net profit for bicycles, considering that the overseas selling price is 1% of the domestic selling priceAbout 5 times, it is expected that the net profit of export bicycles will be 2-30,000.
Key takeaways:
On January 29, 2024, the company released its 2023 annual performance forecast, 2In 023, it is expected to achieve operating income of more than 20 billion yuan, an increase of about 7% over the previous year；It is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 645-7.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15%-30% over the previous year; As of December 31, 2023, the company's net operating cash flow exceeded 300 million yuan. Among them, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company is expected to achieve operating income of more than 7.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20% over the same period last year; The gross profit exceeded 3.2 billion yuan, an increase of more than 25% over the same period last year; The company's single-quarter operating cash flow in the fourth quarter exceeded 1.4 billion yuan.
Operating performance grew steadily, with good gross margin and cash flow. In terms of revenue, the overall operating performance maintained a steady growth. From the perspective of gross profit margin, under the current pressure of overall industry demand, the company's gross profit margin has maintained a good development trend, reflecting the results of the company's cost reduction and efficiency increase. From the perspective of net profit, the company will achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 645-7.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15%-30% over the previous year, and a net profit of 80 million to 120 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, which is expected to decrease by 71%-81% over the same period last year, mainly due to the company's firm investment in the localization substitution of independent and controllable core technologies and controllable industrial chains, and at the same time actively seize the new historical opportunities of general artificial intelligence, and increase investment in the research and development of cognitive large models on independent and controllable platforms. From the perspective of operating cash flow, the company's net operating cash flow in 2023 will exceed 300 million yuan, and the single-quarter operating cash flow in the fourth quarter will exceed 1.4 billion yuan, reflecting the company's good payment collection in the fourth quarter and strong ability to control projects. Good cash flow provides an important guarantee for the company's future R&D investment.
iFLYTEK Spark v3Version 5 will be released soon, and we will cooperate with Huawei to build a domestic computing power base. According to the company's performance forecast, in October 2023, the company and Huawei jointly released China's first domestically produced "Feixing-1" platform that supports trillion-parameter large model training, and the "Xinghuo Large Model V3." was trained based on the platform5" will be officially released on January 30, 2024. "Spark Large Model v35. "It has achieved significant improvement in logical reasoning, language comprehension, text generation, mathematical answering, and multimodal capabilities, further approaching the latest level of GPT-4 Turbo; At the same time, the Xinghuo voice model will be released for the first time, surpassing the whisper-large-v3 launched by OpenAI in the first batch of 37 mainstream languages, maintaining the international leading level of iFLYTEK's intelligent voice technology. In addition, the company will also release the first iFLYTEK Xinghuo open source model that is deeply adapted to domestic computing power.
Key takeaways:
The company released its 2023 performance forecastIt is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 32-400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 607%-100.88%，Deduct non-net profit 29-3.700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6317%-108.19%。In the fourth quarter alone, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 007 to 08.7 billion yuan, a loss of 03.6 billion yuan to turn losses into profits; It is expected to achieve a net profit of -018 to 06.2 billion yuan, a loss of 05.1 billion yuan. On the whole, the company seized the opportunity of consumption recovery, actively enhanced its competitiveness in first-class products, and achieved excellent growth with a young, fashionable and differentiated product matrix. At the same time, the company's franchise business expansion is smooth, with a net increase of 246 Hongji jewelry stores in 2023, and the total number of stores at the end of the period will reach 1,404.
In the future, the company's first-class jewelry business will further enrich the product matrix of first-class products, and empower terminals through refined management and digital retail applications to improve the quality of store operations; The channel side continues to seize the national market share with the help of franchise power. At the same time, the women's bag business actively carried out channel reform and product innovation to achieve growth. Due to the cautious consideration of the end consumption of **jewelry and the fierce competition in the industry, we slightly lowered the company's 2023-2025 net profit attributable to the parent company ** to 383/4.69/5.6.1 billion yuan (the previous value was 4..)05/4.96/6.0.4 billion yuan), corresponding to 15 per cent of PE8/12.9/10.8 times, maintaining an "overweight" rating.