Grab gold during the Spring Festival, some people are crazy and some people are fleeing

Text|Fixed focus Dawn.

Edit|Wei Jia.

It is also an optional consumer product, which is more widely used than clothing and cosmetics, and is becoming more and more popular. During the Spring Festival last year, **consumption increased by 18 percent year-on-year2%, and demand surged by 55% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter8%, the highest since 2015. During this year's Spring Festival, people's enthusiasm for ** has not diminished at all, and major ** jewelry brands have also started crazy**.

A few days before the Spring Festival, in Beijing's famous Caibai General Store, "people who buy gold are like rushing to the big market"; More than 2,000 kilometers away in Shuibei, Shenzhen, young people who came to "pan for gold" borrowed all the power banks in the shopping mall.

During the Spring Festival holiday, Saturday Fu played the slogan of "buy ** get ** free", and China ** launched a limited-time discount of "derogation of 120 yuan", and various ** activities were dazzling.

There are many reasons why a person can buy some gold: give gifts and don't pick people; Gold jewelry is good-looking, necessary for marriage; ** is hard currency, hedging value.

Among them, a considerable number of people pay more and more attention to the investment attributes of the first, so that gold bars and gold bricks are selling well.

The price of gold is already high now, more precisely, it has never been so high in the last few decades. 630 yuan a gram of gold jewelry (not counting manual fees), 480 yuan a gram of naked gold, I didn't dare to think a few years ago. The question is, will the price of gold continue to rise?

Last year's National Day holiday taught a lesson to many people. At that time, the gold price rose wildly before the holiday, and the holiday was suddenly **, trapping a group of young people who tried it first, but it didn't take long for the gold price to rise again. After the Spring Festival holiday this year, will the roller coaster of the National Day be repeated**?

Gold diggers "choose to vote with their feet." A group of people poured into the gold store and went crazy to buy; Others began to sell, exchanging their long-standing belongings for cash. People have different views on the future of **.

Young people, crazy gold buying As the world's largest ** market, Chinese have an obsession with **. Ten years ago, "Chinese aunts" exploded in purchases**, and their strong purchasing power shocked foreigners, and today's young people are not to be outdone.

There are two main types of buying, one is gold jewelry, the other is gold coins and gold bars, and the uses of both are different.

The essence of gold jewelry is jewelry, but the raw materials are more expensive. Jewelry has a shape and design, so it has an additional processing fee than gold coins and gold bars. Gold coins, gold bars, and gold bricks are pure**, with financial management attributes, **follow *** fluctuations.

Luo Jie from Beijing went to the Caibai jewelry store a week before the Spring Festival, and she was very surprised by the crowded situation at the scene. There was a counter that finally squeezed in, and before I could ask the salesman about a small piece of jewelry after trying it on, an eldest sister next to me placed an order in a second.

She was shopping nearby, didn't think about buying gold, saw more people here to join in the fun, and finally in the atmosphere of the scene, driven by the atmosphere, she bought a gold bar with 489 yuan grams. "I hope that next time I go will be like buying cabbage. She said.

Song Zhen planned to buy some more gold jewelry. She has been buying ** for the past three years, starting from 280 yuan grams, and has been buying 480 yuan grams, and now she has saved a total of 102 grams, most of which are at a price of about 400 yuan grams**.

From the counter of the shopping mall, to Shuibei, to the live broadcast room, she has placed orders, **there are discounts**. I just feel that saving money is not as good as saving gold, the money is worth depreciating too quickly, gold can not only satisfy my desire to buy, but also save, it is really a double win. ”

* Merchants have a good grasp of the psychology of consumers, and take advantage of the Spring Festival holiday to start a "war for people".

Brands such as China**, Chow Tai Fook, and Mengjinyuan have cooperated with Alipay, which has a high proportion of young users, to jointly launch customized gold bars, and users can also exchange Fu card discounts for jewelry.

Brands such as Zhou Dasheng, Lao Miao**, and Caibai release coupons in the live broadcast room from time to time. Some brands stipulate that each account can only enjoy the discount once a month, and some users borrow a friend's account and grab it every few days.

In a shopping mall in a county-level city in the south, the advertisement of "buy ** get free" on Saturday Fu was hit from the escalators on all floors to the underground parking lot, and the discount was much greater than before the Spring Festival. A salesperson said to Fixed Focus that if you buy ** jewelry by gram, the manual fee can be converted into an equivalent piece of jewelry, such as small gold beans, small gold beads, small ornaments, etc., which is equivalent to free manual fees.

The scene was crowded, and a salesperson hurriedly took goods, introduced, and billed customers in a hurry, and was so busy that he ran around the audience, accidentally fell, and got up to continue working without saying a word.

The sales of offline stores often put the sales words of gold prices rising: "Gold prices have been rising, and it will be higher next year. ”

A counter sales staff told Dingjiao that during the Spring Festival, many customers were worried that the gold price would continue to be ** after the New Year, so they came to the store in advance to purchase wedding jewelry. Some people's wedding date is in the second half of the year, and they also purchased the "three golds" in advance. Gift-giving is another major demand, "Now in this year, giving ** is the most reliable, ** does not pick people, no matter what price there are products, you can get it." ”

The **jewelry** is different in different places, and the lower-tier cities are generally lower than the big cities. Some young people take advantage of the Spring Festival to return to their hometowns and "stock up at low prices" in their hometowns. "Before the Spring Festival, I inquired in Beijing shopping malls, basically 630 yuan grams, and when I returned to my hometown during the Spring Festival, I found that it was only 520 yuan grams, which I thought was too cheap! So I bought one for my family. A white-collar worker working in Beijing said.

Many people buy ** for peace of mind.

Liu Ying began to buy ** last year, it doesn't matter how high or low ** is, who knows that the more he buys, the more he rises, so he buys more and more, and buys 500 grams in less than a year, gold bricks, gold bars, and gold ingots.

He originally planned to save the money to buy a house this year, but when he saw that the house price had been falling, he changed his mind and saved all the money for a fixed period. Later, he didn't want to buy a house anymore and started to buy ** like crazy.

He sees buying ** as a way to avoid risk. "From ancient times to the present, gold has been exchanged for tickets. Whether the ticket increases in value or depreciates, gold can always belong to its value in different situations. This year, he plans to buy another 500 grams, and if he has spare money, he will buy it, "leaving himself a final pressure box treasure".

It is better to save money than to save money, and the young people who buy gold think that they have lived and understood.

People who are afraid of heights began to trap existing people to enter, and some people left the venue. It's just that compared to the hustle and bustle of the entrance, the people leaving the venue seem quiet.

Star fruit has sold its gold jewelry three times, and the more than 50 grams of gold jewelry for the wedding have been sold. Selling ** is not because of lack of money, but because she usually wears less, and now that the price of gold is high, she feels that she can sell **, and then enter at a low price to make a little money.

Most of the ones sold last year were bought two years ago, with a profit of more than 3,000 yuan, some of which were coupons grabbed on Double 11, and the ** was lower than **. But I basically can't make money when I bought it last year, because the price of gold has risen, and she bought a gold bead before, and the gold price and processing fee add up to 480 yuan, and now she will lose money.

The batch that was just sold a year ago, the average of the previous ** was about 450 yuan (gold price + labor cost), and she saw the gold price a little bit of ** signs a year ago, so she rushed to the end of January with 475 yuan of ***, earning more than 1,000 yuan.

It feels like frying, selling, buying at a low price, and it's quite fun. She said.

Li Jiaying went back to her hometown this time, asked her parents to take out some of the gold jewelry they had saved before, took out some of it and went to the mall to change it, and planned to take the rest to the gold store to find someone to make a large piece, or exchange it for cash. "Now that the price of gold is a bit high, I'm thinking about whether to cash out first. ”

The prevailing rule in the industry is that the market price is a reference, a few dollars or a dozen dollars lower, as **, gram weight **= hand price.

Whether it is gold jewelry or gold bars and gold bricks, no matter how complex the shape of the jewelry is, how exquisite the workmanship is, and whether the brand is well-known or not, the standards are the same at the time, and they return to their original appearance - gold. The gold is then sold to factories and melted back into other products.

The merchant conducts authenticity identification, weighing, and transaction on **. What they earn is the difference in the price of scalping.

* After the fire, there is basically no change in the gram weight, and the error generally does not exceed 01 gram. **There are no depreciation, wear and tear costs, no cleaning costs, and no invoices at the time of purchase. Liu Tong, who is engaged in *** in Shanghai, said to Dingjiao.

The market provides a channel for circulation, which facilitates the sale and realization. However, most brand gold stores do not do ** business, but instead trade in the old for the new. Consumers hand over the old jewelry and take away the new jewelry, which can offset part of the price difference.

Liu Tong revealed that the gold store only trades in the old for the new, and the large gram is replaced by a small gram, and most of them have depreciation expenses, which can make another money. This is actually a disguised promotion of sales, so customers who want to cash out will go directly to the best merchants.

The price is linked to the gold price, and the rise and fall of the price directly affects the market.

A merchant engaged in *** in Huizhou said to Dingjiao that many customers rushed to the **high point of the previous year**, and fell by more than 30 yuan in 2 days on the National Day, and there may be a wave after the New Year".

Because I am worried that some *** merchants will no longer take orders after the year. Liu Tong said that the market was suspended during the Spring Festival holiday, and it was necessary to wait for the opening of the tenth day of the New Year, during which merchants generally would not avoid smashing the goods in their own hands, even if it was also to reduce prices and avoid risks.

Gold prices continue to be the most expensive, and different people see different risks in their eyes. Some people think that ** is worth buying, and some people think that it is not possible to chase high. They made different choices.

Chubby is a ** "veteran". People in Guangdong generally like **, and they buy some every three or five days. Many years ago, when she was still in college, her mother began to save some gold jewelry for her, and the price of gold at that time was only more than 200 grams, and she saved twenty or thirty grams a year.

Now she already has a few hundred grams of ** in her hand, and most of them are more than 200 yuan, which has nearly doubled according to the current ***.

However, she believes that **the** should not always be so high, "After observing the past ten years, there will also be times when there will be a big fall, if you stock up, I think you can buy it again." ”

In the long run, the price of gold is indeed at an all-time high, and it has basically risen in the past eight years. In 2015, the first gold jewelry was only more than 200 grams, and the price began to rise at the end of the year, and then it rose and fell, and in 2020, it started to rise sharply, all the way to more than 600 grams today.

The newbies are still entering, and the veterans are already starting to be cautious.

Is it still a good investment to buy? People buy ** with an investment mentality, because they fancy the two major attributes of ** - anti-inflation and risk aversion.

* And money (sovereign currency) is a natural counterparty, paper money has credit risk, but **no, banknotes may become waste paper, but ** always valuable. And when extreme events such as war occur, ** is the world's recognized hard currency.

Based on these two attributes, the epidemic, international conflicts, and local wars in the past few years have continued to push some people to exchange their cash and real estate for **, which has a similar effect to financial management. And the constant ****, further strengthens this trend.

Chinese, who have always been cautious and have a low risk appetite, have shown great interest in ** in the past year. According to the latest data of the World ** Association, the global ** jewelry consumption in 2023 will be 2093 tons, an increase of only 3 tons year-on-year, but Chinese mainland will consume 630 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the consumption amount will reach 282 billion yuan, a record high. For comparison, the United States consumes only 136 tons, and the Middle East tycoons only consume 172 tons. China is the world's largest consumer of the world.

Chinese buy **, both consumption and investment. If you just buy some small jewelry, the short-term rise and fall of gold prices actually has little impact, but if it is financial management, you must consider **and**timing, because the volatility of *** is very high.

Many people will ignore volatility and only look at the gold price rally chart over the past few years. If we comb through the trend of the past 50 years, we will find that there has never been a unilateral trend.

In 1980, the gold price reached US$850 an ounce, which was the highest point at the time, and it was not until 2008 that it returned to that point again, after a gap of 28 years. In the past 28 years, there have been many ups and downs, jumping back and forth.

In the three years from 2008 to 2011, the price of gold rose from US$850 to US$1,895, but in the following nine years, the price never reached this high again, and fell to US$1,000 in the meantime. It wasn't until 2020 that the price of gold once again broke through its 2011 peak, reaching a new record of $2,067.

Note that the gold price is now hovering around $2,000 an ounce, not yet the highs of four years ago. During the Spring Festival holiday, the spot ** fell below the $2,000 mark, the first time in the past two months. Next, will gold prices go down and then rise, or will they continue to soar all the way? No one can be precise**.

Star fruit sold all kinds of gold jewelry in his hand in the past year, just to take advantage of the high price, he felt that in a few years, the ** of gold jewelry should be able to return to about 400 yuan. Liu Ying believes that gold prices will not be ** in the short term, at least they can outperform housing prices and inflation, so they continue to increase their holdings**.

It's hard to see the big picture. A person told such an experience: In 2013, he got married and bought three gold, which was only 260 yuan grams, but platinum was popular at that time, and it was more expensive than it. He didn't have much money in his hand, so he was forced to buy **. This is a big advantage.

And for most of the past two years, gold prices have consolidated at high levels. Faced with a mix of positive and negative conditions, it is heavily affected by market sentiment swings, which leads to divergent market views on the subsequent movement of gold prices.

From an investment perspective alone, buying ** is not a sure win. As a commodity, ** is different from cash and real estate, it is a "non-interest-bearing asset". You put a bundle of cash in the bank and get a little interest every year; Swap cash for a house, you can collect rent; But if you are holding a bundle of gold bars, you will not generate additional income. This means that if you are at the highest point, you will also be firm, and the holding cost is too high.

Of course, if you buy ** for your own use, or if you want to give a gift, then you should buy it, and there is no need to worry about the rise and fall of gold prices. People still have to live in the moment, and no one knows what will happen in 10 years.

At the request of the interviewees, Luo Jie, Song Zhen, Liu Ying, Carambola, Li Jiaying, and Liu Tong are pseudonyms.