The U.S. media revealed shocking news, saying that the former Trump of the United States is discussing with his team that once he returns to the throne, he will launch a new round of war against China, and it is possible to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports. In addition to Trump, another ** candidate of the Republican Party has a similar idea, and it is time for China to prepare for the worst.
The United States has entered a critical year, Trump's approval rating is unrivaled in the party, and Biden of the Democratic Party is still mistakenly calling Trump the "incumbent" Trump is clearly in control, and he has begun to formulate a plan to return to the White House in 2025. The Washington Post recently revealed a shocking news, saying that Trump is discussing with his advisers the possibility of canceling China's most-favored-nation status and imposing a 60% uniform tariff on all Chinese imports.
Assuming this news is true, then after Trump's comeback, China and the United States will set off a war that is larger and more fierce than the 2018 **war. However, this is only the tip of the iceberg of Trump's tough China policy, in December last year, Trump threw out the 2025 agenda, saying that he would "impose severe new restrictions", ban Americans from investing in China, prohibit Chinese from owning American assets, and completely ban key commodities such as steel and drugs made in China.
At the heart of Trump's economic policy toward China is the abolition of China's permanent normal relations status, or "most-favored-nation status," under which the average tariff on Chinese exports to the United States is 84%, once this premise is lifted, China's tariffs on U.S. exports will be raised to nearly 50%, which is still not counting Trump's implementation of similar "301" retaliatory tariffs to China, if you count the 60% of possible tariffs, then the United States has always wanted to "decouple and break the chain" with China, to a large extent, will become a reality.
It is also worth mentioning that the adviser to Trump mentioned by the Washington Post is none other than Robert Lighthizer, the head of the office of the US representative during the Trump era and the "designer" of the 2018 Sino-US war. Lighthizer personally handled the "301" tariffs during his tenure, which is a typical representative of being tough on China, and after leaving office, he still kept an eye on Biden ** to maintain all tariffs on China, and got his wish, in June last year, he also called China a "deadly adversary" in his book, if he and Trump return hand in hand, then it is almost certain that Sino-US relations will be reset, and the current Sino-US relations that have been walking on thin ice will bottom out again.
So is it unlikely that this rumor will come true? It depends on who is more likely to be elected to the United States**. Frankly speaking, Biden's performance during his tenure was not good, the failure of the Middle East strategy did not exchange for the rise of the "Indo-Pacific strategy", the economic problems of the United States are still chicken feathers, and Biden himself frequently shows signs of Alzheimer's disease, as long as the Republican Party does not make mistakes and waits for the Democrats to make mistakes, they can almost win.
Haley, the Republican candidate and former governor of South Carolina, has publicly stated that she advocates pushing Congress to revoke China's MFN status. So all things considered, whoever represents the Republican Party, China may have to face this potential threat. Taking a step back, even if Biden successfully defends his title, "de-risking" China is not a trivial matter, and in any case, we must plan early.