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Conclusion
Warren Buffett's investor**, there is a clause called not to invest, quartz shares for me, is a target that I don't understand, because quartz shares are a superposition, between certainty and uncertainty, there is an ore black box.
Although the information I read before and the information on the Internet all point to the company's strong monopoly barrier, I have never figured out what this barrier is and how long it can last. So I continued to look for the literature of high-purity quartz sand, including some core journals, Ph.D. and master's degrees, etc., combined with previous research, the conclusions obtained, quoting Professor Wang Ling's words:
Practice has proved that high-quality raw materials must be used in the production of high-purity quartz high-end products. The fundamental reason for the failure to localize China's 4N8 high-purity quartz high-end products is that so far there has been no high-quality raw materials for high-purity quartz that can stably meet the needs of industrial production. The direction we should strive to find high-quality raw materials (A-grade ore) that can stably meet the needs of industrial production is the key to solving the problem of "stuck neck" of high-end 4N8 high-purity quartz products in China. ”
Therefore, ore is the core competitiveness, and technology is not at present. Quartz shares of the mine is not its own, this ore source in the end, how many reserves, how much remaining mineable, the stability of the remaining ore and the situation of the backup ore source, the company for confidentiality reasons, has been secretive, which has formed a black hole.
As a result, there is no other way to make a logical judgment except for inside information, if the boss buys the source of the mine, then the quartz shares are very stable, if they are mined out tomorrow, the quartz shares will fall off a cliff, and all of this can not be judged.
Arguments
The following information is derived from the collation and analysis of the information collected:
High-purity quartz technology includes:Raw material selection technology, purification process technology, processing equipment technology and quality testing technologyThey are both independent and interrelated and mutually restrictive technology as a whole, among which the identification, evaluation and selection technology of high-purity quartz raw materials is the most critical.
The source of the mine is the core
The Spruce mine in Unimin was discovered as early as the beginning of the 20th century, but at that time people wanted feldspar and mica, and quartz was not yet used, it was garbage. During the 4th-5th Industrial Revolution, quartz took off with the development of semiconductors.
At present, the companies with high-purity quartz sand production technology are some advanced countries, such as Unimin, Particle and Processing Grading Company of the United States; Toshiba, Spark, Shin-Etsu of Japan; Heraeus, Germany; British Quartz Technology; Saint-Gobain, France; St. Petersburg Quartz of Russia and Quartz of China Co., Ltd.
However, in the import and export data, we found that high-purity sand is almost monopolized by the United States, and the whole world is importing unimin. It is understandable that Japan, Germany, Britain and France lack resources, doesn't Russia have quartz mines, why not take a share of the profiteering industry? One possibility is that technology is not a core constraint at all.
Among the 7 kinds of high-purity quartz raw materials, there are three suitable for the production of high-purity sand, namely natural crystal, vein quartz and granite pegmatite, crystal has now been eliminated due to small reserves and high value, and most of the remaining mines are mainly vein quartz.
There is only one large-scale source of granite pegmatites in the United States, and there are only a pitiful 80,000 tons of ore reserves suitable for the production of IOTA-8 standards. According to the mineralization reasons, even if a large pegmatite is found in the world, it may not be really suitable for the production of high-purity sand.
Geological action leads to kinetic recrystallization of quartz, plastic deformation of crystals of quartz particles, intracrystalsPore impurities are concentrated along the boundaries of the newly formed particles, and the liquid that accompanies the deformation movement facilitates the dissolution and migration of these impurities, allowing the impurities to move out of the recrystallized quartz particles。The Alerhani greenschist geological movement produced a specialized production of iota-46.8 The raw materials of three kinds of ultra-high purity quartz, at present, there are no other parts of the world to find such natural rock formation conditions, to produce quartz of similar or higher purity. Spruce PineOther ore bodies, including Unimin's IOTA standard deposit, were largely unaffected by this crustal movementThe original ore of IOTA is the only ore body in the Spruce Pine region that has been affected by this geological movement.
Technology is adjunct
With the progress of science and technology, some new preparation methods have emerged in recent years, but there are very few reports, and the effect is not easy to judge. So how can we say that technology is an aid?
1.Judging from the craftsmanship of Unimin:
Unimin's process system for the production of high-purity quartz is as follows: The first step is the identification and careful selection of high-purity raw ore. The second step is to establish strict mining and beneficiation standards. The third step is to select the best quality part of the ore body for production.
As can be seen from the above, it is all beneficiation, ** said purification? Unimin can produce extremely good products, not because of how powerful the technology is, but because the mine is good, there are fewer impurities in itself, and there are fewer impurities in the inclusions.
2.Judging from the results of the experiment:
In two domestic literatures, the results of purification using the same technology for different ore sources show that:
1) There is no causality between the impurity low ore source and the standard high-purity sand.
Mines with the fewest impurities do not necessarily produce high-purity sand that meets standards.
2) There are too few minerals that meet the standards.
In the first experiment, 2 of the 20 mineral impurities reached the standard, and the compliance rate was 10%. However, the details of K, Na and Li were not announced, and the compliance of these three elements is also a difficult action of purification technology.
In experiment 2, 1 of the 13 mineral impurities (including KNALI content) reached the standard, and the compliance rate was 77%。
Note that this is the laboratory status of 4N8 high-purity sand, and from this step to batch scale production, the technical solution still needs to be difficult to climb.
3.Why is there no linear relationship between low impurities and good products?
This starts with the form of impurities:
1) Attachment form: It's like a piece of gold stuck to the mud, just wash it off, there is no difficulty.
2) Lattice Magazine: The tanuki has changed the prince, and it is difficult to get rid of it, simply put, Si4 is replaced by other elements such as Al3 and Fe3, and at the same time, K1, Na1, Li1, O, and H go up to fill the position.
In this regard, quartz shares should have a first-mover advantage before, and it can be seen that his products meet the requirements of KNALI, while the parameters listed by Oujing Technology's ** merchant Jiangsu Yangshan Silicon Material ** are beyond the standard. However, there is currently a literature to introduce effective methods, unless quartz technology iterative progress, otherwise the technology leadership at this point should be gone, in the process of querying its patents, it was also found that a lot of high-purity sand patents have not been renewed, which should also be the reason.
3) Inclusions impurities: impurities are protected from gas-liquid minerals.
Inclusions are certain solid minerals or gas-liquid impurities encapsulated in quartz ore, and the type, size and content of fluid inclusions have a significant impact on the quality of high-purity quartz. According to the state of the contained substances, the fluid encapsulation in quartz can be divided into: pure gas, pure liquid, gas-liquid mixed inclusions and three-phase inclusions. Although the research on how to reduce the content of fluid inclusions in quartz has been carried out for a long time, no good progress has been made in the removal of gas-rich phases and micro-sized fluid inclusions.
At this time, the purification has entered the deep water area, and the purification process of gas-liquid inclusions with a size of < 10 m is extremely difficult, because high-purity sand not only has the restriction of purity, but also the restriction of particle size, and then crushing more finely can indeed destroy some inclusions to purify, but this is no longer the sand that can be used for crucibles, and the standard requires 80-140 mesh. (The larger the mesh, the finer it is).
Vein quartz mineral composition is single, almost all of them are quartz, but there are many impurities such as gas-liquid inclusions, mineral inclusions and homogeneous images in the ore, which is also the congenital deficiency of the mineral.
4) Processing impurities.
This is a problem that tests the process and spends money to solve the problem together, so as to avoid the invasion of foreign impurities caused by secondary pollution in processing.
The inability to remove all lattice impurities, and the fact that there is basically no solution for inclusion impurities, have made the technology fall into a slow night, so that the following points have been proposed:
Through long-term research on a large number of quartz purification and processing experiments, Professor Wang discovered and summarized the purification law of quartz, namely:For quartz sand products with a certain particle size, any kind of quartz ore has certain purification processing limitations, and there is a purification limit under the existing economic and technical conditions. In other words, it is inherently predestined what purity quartz sand products a quartz mine can process.
There is no shortage of raw materials for the production of low-end high-purity quartz in China, and what is extremely scarce is the high-quality raw materials that can process high-end products of 4N8 high-purity quartz. Although natural crystal and vein quartz can be used as raw materials for processing high-purity quartz, the high-quality raw materials that can be purified for high-end products of 4N8 high-purity quartz are only a few of them. From this it can be inferred thatThe granitic pegmatite quartz, which can be used as a high-end product of 4N8 high-purity quartz, should also be a very small number of deposits or occurrences.
This is largely due to the problem of raw materials, in the past we always feel that our purification technology is not as advanced as foreign countries, always in this piece of making a fuss, and later found that we have entered a misunderstanding, in fact, we should change our thinking, should be to find natural beauty, impurity content is less, easy to purify the raw ore, the United States Unimin is because of them such a good mine, if replaced by another mine, it may not be able to produce Unimin products.
4.If so, are there still barriers to technology?
Of course, not all players who can play Honor of Kings can play KPL. With the same technology, the quality of production will vary greatly depending on the level of sophistication.
Quartz from different sources has different means of purification. The requirements for impurity content of high-purity sand for different purposes are also different, and these need to be accumulated and improved little by little in long-term practice.
Business wars
Unimin's early promotion of technical barriers is the same as that of quartz shares now, all in order to confuse opponents and let opponents fall into the misunderstanding of inferior skills, so that they can maximize the delay time and continue to move forward on the correct prospecting road.
At this time, perhaps we can understand why other countries with purification technology have not produced companies like Unimin, and the ore formation of IOTA-8 is because the movement of the earth's crust happens to remove the impurities of the inclusions, completing the most difficult self-cleaning, thus becoming a natural beauty. Can we afford to wait for the movement of the earth's crust?
For the mineral source of quartz shares, although there are some guessable directions, but the verification of this superposition state to the collapsed state, due to insufficient information, it is difficult and difficult, and the specific report data will be verified again.
Risk Warning: This article is a non-professional's guess and reasoning based on reading information, and there is a risk of wrong cognition caused by insufficient cognition.
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Risk Warning:The views mentioned in this article only represent personal views, and the subject matter involved is not recommended, and you buy and sell it at your own risk. Due to the lack of knowledge of financial management, accounting, and the behavioral patterns of supply and demand in the industry, it is important that you look at all my data analysis with a skeptical eye, and it would be appreciated if you could point out the loopholes and errors in the analysis.